Mid-Season Review

By Whaley Shark
December 10 2011

With an awkward gap between matches (at least those I can get to), which risks the message board going to sleep, and a couple of weeks away from the Premiership for European action, it seems a good time to take stock of how the AP is going so far.....

Harlequins. What can you say? Ten out of ten so far and a formidable home record built on sound defence, with the nearest thing to a defensive lapse their performance against us at the Stoop, when they had the match won and eased off to let us pick up two bonus points. But they complement their defence with some serious attacking firepower, having averaged over three tries per match and scored six more than anyone else in the AP. Going well and will take some stopping.

Saracens. Last year’s Champions, not excessively perturbed by the World Cup, stuttered first time out, losing to Wasps in the London Double Header, but their only other defeat so far has been at Franklin’s Gardens after the World Cup period. They dealt with us comfortably down at Vicarage Road, and putting 50 points on Tigers at Welford Road was quite an achievement. In normal seasons, eight wins from ten outings would be Premiership leading form.  As it is, they are the best of the rest by a fair margin, but still trail Quins by nine points.

Exeter. I’m not sure anyone should be too surprised to see Exeter in third place, leading a tightly packed bunch of eight teams, all spanned by just seven points. They aren’t littered with stars, but they play every minute of the 80 and, as we discovered the other week at EP, have a formidable team ethic. They were the first to reveal Leicester’s World Cup vulnerability with a narrow win at Welford Road, and have only really failed to perform once this season, away at Saints. The four losing bonus points they have accumulated just keep their noses ahead of the pack.

London Irish. Well, they really are the bonus point specialists. They have picked a BP up in all five of their losses. They started slowly, going down to Quins in Round 1, then narrowly lost to us at EP in Round 2 before finally getting going with a one point win away at Saints and a bonus point home  win against Newcastle. They have since turned in some good performances, including a draw at Welford Road and a narrow loss at Kingsholm.

Sale Sharks. After a good start, when we primarily relied on young talent to cover for World Cup absentees, we have perhaps settled back to a more realistic level of performance. We’ve lost some we should have won, and won some we should probably have lost, and this inconsistency probably reflects our inexperience and Dimes’ close season changes. Even so, it is pleasing to see some real fight from our 2011 squad and, after away wins against Wasps and Bath, I imagine teams won’t see a visit from the Sharks as an automatic four points any more.

Northampton Saints. Lost four of their first five games in the AP, then got their World Cup players back and won four out of four, including a substantial home win over Saracens. They lost last weekend’s fiery East Midlands derby at Welford Road, but I’ll be very surprised if they aren’t there or thereabouts in April and May, especially now they won’t be distracted by the Heineken Cup any more.

Leicester Tigers. They started the season as poorly as Saints during the World Cup period, and were saved from the embarrassment of 0 from 5 only by a try in the last five minutes which gave them a 26-27 win at Kingston Park. They’re doing better now, moving up the table, and being Leicester, you can never write them off. It’ll be interesting to see how we get on down at Welford Road on New Year’s Day.

Gloucester. The Cherry-and-Whites have had a rather hit-and-miss season so far, with Fortress Kingsholm falling to Exeter and Leicester already. Although they have lost more than they have won so far, they have only been badly beaten once, a 42-6 defeat at the Stoop- they probably won’t be the only side on the receiving end of comparable wallopings this year- and the five losing bonus points they have picked up are looking pretty handy right now. 

London Wasps. A bright start to the season gave wins over both Sarries and Leicester, but we stopped that in Round 3 when we won at Wycombe for the first time since 2008, and they have spluttered since, not least having the unfortunate distinction of being one of only two sides to lose to Falcons so far this season. They seem to have suffered from off-field uncertainty, and ninth, where they ended up last season, looks about their level this time too.

Bath. More faded glory at the Rec. Their new owner apparently has buckets of cash, but it doesn’t yet seem to be translating into results on the field (where have I come across that before?). They’ve been inconsistent, with a ‘win one, lose one’ rhythm in their first eight AP matches, but that’s now been broken with successive defeats, away at Worcester and at home to us. They may have conceded fewest tries in the AP, but their attack doesn’t so much have teeth, more just gums, and they aren’t exactly scoring tries freely.

Worcester Warriors. They have managed three wins so far, beating us in Round 1, catching Saints during the World Cup, and then doing for Bath at Sixways. In what may yet turn out to be a significant result in the developing relegation struggle, they led for much of the game up in Newcastle, only to see Falcons fight back for a draw. With the table so condensed, Warriors are only one good win, and a bit of luck, away from mid-table and they have a bit of a cushion over the Falcons. Nevertheless, there must be occasional nervous glances over their shoulders.

Newcastle Falcons. Until a couple of weeks ago, the Falcons were looking off the pace, with just seven points from nine games, but a hard-fought win at home to Gloucester in Round 9 closed the developing gap and must make them feel that, if they put together the sort of run we’ve seen before from sides near the bottom of the table, they can certainly save themselves. A couple of wins, combined with slip-ups from the sides above them, and there will be a real scrap on. One problem for them is that they seem fragile- they only have one losing bonus point from seven defeats whereas, across the AP, sides pick up a losing bonus in about half their losses.

So where do I think things will end up? Well, I don’t think the table is telling too many lies. I think two of the top four, Quins and Sarries, are already in position and will take the top two places. I think Tigers and Saints have enough to recover from their World Cup woes and take the other two playoff places, in spite of further disruption during the Six Nations. Then there’ll be a tight bunch, comprising us, Irish, Exeter, Bath, Wasps and Gloucester, occupying fifth to tenth, and the relegation scrap will be between Worcester and the Falcons. So, if we get it right, I think fifth or sixth and Heineken Cup rugby is achievable for us, but it wouldn’t take much of a wobble to see us end in ninth or tenth. Still a lot to play for then and, bearing in mind our last few AP campaigns have been pretty much written off by this stage, I’m certainly more enthusiastic than in previous years.