Leicester Tigers v Leeds Tykes - A Preview
By Gazz on 24/04/2003
April 24 2003
If someone had told you at the start of the season that, with 3 matches left Tykes would have the 2nd best away record in the Zurich Premiership you'd have called for the men in white coats. But believe it or not, that is exactly the record Leeds take into Saturday's clash at Fortress Welford Road.
With 9 games played on the road so far this season, Tykes have won 4 and drawn 1, giving them a 50% record. Compare that to last season, when Tykes managed only 1 away win out of 11, and we can see just one of the big factors in Leeds amazing about turn this term. Only Gloucester have a better away record this season, having won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2; a 70% record.
But lets not get carried away; after all Leicester's home form is nothing short of legendary, with the longest home winning streak of any team in the country, and have lost only once at home this season in the league, with an average home winning margin of 13 points.
The history between the two sides is understandably short, although Tykes do have the advantage, having won 2 of the 3 previous meetings. Both of those wins were at Headingley, and both fondly remembered by Tykes fans (and players) for the manner in which the games were won. Last season's Welford Road fixture saw a 31-10 win for the Tigers, with Neil Back scoring 3 tries.
But last term, Leicester lost only 4 times during the entire regular season, and so far this time around they've lost double that. Add to that the home losses to Saints in the league in November and more recently to Munster in the Heineken Cup, plus the defeats at Quins and Falcons, and Leicester are clearly not in the same form they were last time around. Leeds on the other hand, have now won 11 games this season, that's 5 more than all of last season and are fresh from an away win at that Madejski, a feat Leicester could not manage when they visited Reading in November, succumbing to a 27-7 defeat.
Recent form keeps the sides evenly matched, with both teams having won and lost 5 out of their last 10 league games. Arguably Tigers are off the boil, but Leeds are not playing the 80 (or 90!) minute rugby they were at the start of the season. The Tykes dip in form coincided with two events; the injury to George Harder, and the fragmented fixture list at the start of the year. George is well and truly back - and there are a few London Irish players who'll attest to just how hard he's running and tackling again - whilst this will be Tykes third game in as many weeks. Perhaps as the league programme draws to a close, a benefit may be seen from the lack of fixtures and the relative freshness of the Leeds players.
Leeds will be without Dan Scarbrough, a key player this and last season, and one who clearly likes playing against the Tigers having scored in every match so far, crossing the line 4 times in all. His pace and strength will undoubtedly be missed, whilst we also wait to see if Braam and Dan Hyde have recovered from the knocks they received on Sunday. Leicester are not without their problems though - injury and otherwise. Healey looks doubtful for the rest of the season, and Dean Richards seems unable to decide on his best 2nd row and back row combinations.
Perhaps Leeds can gain an advantage from one of their mid-season signings. Winston Stanley has proved a very worthy addition to the squad, and has certainly impressed me with his pace and tackling in the last few games. Stanley was a Welford Road favourite not too long ago, and has played alongside most of the Tigers current squad. No doubt he will be heavily involved in the tactics sessions during this weeks training.
This is perhaps Leeds' best chance to beat Leicester on their own patch, and with 4th place in the league now looking almost certain to guarantee Heineken Cup Rugby next season the fixture takes on even more significance. The players will be fired up for this one, and Phil Davies has already shown with his recent team selections that none of the players can rest on their laurels. Leeds have struggled to gain bonus points this season, and are the only team in the Premiership yet to score 4 tries in a match, but that will matter little on Saturday.
And so to a prediction: I'd like to say I'm going with my heart on this one, but I honestly think Leicester are there to be beaten, and that this is the right time for us to play them. Leeds to claim a 5th away win of the season by 5 points.