Can Leeds Beat the Kingsholm Hoodoo?

By apb
April 8 2005

Going on current form, its a Tykes win. Going on past performance, its a Gloucester win. Going on fighting for your very job's existence, then the Tykes players will get the win. Going on fighting for top class European action next year, then the Gloucester players will get the win.

Finely balanced then? Absolutely!

Current Form

Two weeks ago, none of the pundits gave Leeds a prayer against Leicester, roundly condemning the Tykes to almost certain oblivion by this week, and that the Powergen Cup Final would be the last chance for Leeds to appear in the big league.

Then came the Leicester game, where the intensity, passion, commitment, and above all, the result was all Leeds'. Now, suddenly, they're all sitting up and taking notice again.

Yet, while that result was undoubtedly a great filip for the Leeds boys, lets not get too carried away. The Leeds results in the league have all been within a few points of winning, and the biggest failing that has run through the entire season has been the ability to finish the job, particularly when in sniffing distance of the try-line. From my (admittedly not perfect) view from the South Stand on that day, there were two golden opportunities for scores that went begging, one from David Rees and one from Andre Snyman. Not that I'm blaming these individuals particularly, but it was symptomatic of the malaise that still haunts the Tykes' play. Thank the Good Lord in heaven for sending us Tom Biggs that day!

And then last week there was Worcester in the European whatsit. Now I wasn't at the game, and neither do I have access to a Tykes fan's match report, but from what I hear, the tries were there but the defence most certainly wasn't. Of course it was an unimportant match, and was probably treated by both teams in much the same way - a training exercise. But these things are nevertheless of concern going into the match tomorrow.

Gloucester are one of the top sides in Europe. They have been having a bad time of it recently, and for a while, conspiracy theorists were expounding on the uncanny ability of the Gloucester team to lose to Harlequins and Saints in quick succession. This was mollified when they managed to struggle past London Irish last time out, but cover themselves in glory they most certainly did not.

Nigel Melville will not have been a happy man. Gloucester fans expect more of their beloved team, and Melville will be drumming this fact into his players pretty much constantly from now until kick-off.

Past Performance

The duels between these two teams have been generally close affairs, with the Tykes winning their fair share of the Headingley encounters. However, it's one of those facts that the Tykes have never won at Kingsholm. And, in fact, they've never even come close. Gloucester will be keen to keep that record intact, and as we saw two weeks ago, records do mean something. The Tykes will need to put in a huge performance even to have a chance.

Rewards for Winning, Consequences of Losing

For the Tykes, winning is an absolute must. Lose now, and the Premiership adventure is all but over. Relegation would mean - at the very least - pay cuts for those players that will be around next year, although the knowledge that Mr. Caddick will still be backing the team as a pro outfit next year regardless of which division that's in will set some hearts at rest. Perhaps, though, that announcement has come a little early, in that there may not be quite the urgency anymore.

For Gloucester, winning is also a must. They are still capable of qualifying for the Premiership play-offs, and thus automatic Heineken Cup qualification; in fact, this is really their only chance of making it this year, having lost out to Bath in the Powergen Cup semi-final. Losing this game may well present them with the unwelcome thought of playing Shield rugby in Europe next year.

Prediction?

The vocal support from the Shed will be deafening as ever, and it will be a hard game. Hard for the players? certainly. Hard for the DoRs? Absolutely. Hard for the fans? You bet! It's likely to be another nail-biter. In fact, the only way I can split the teams is by saying that the Tykes will want it that little bit more, and may well break the Kingsholm hoodoo this year, by the odd point in 25.

But then, I would say that, wouldn't I?

Teams

Gloucester	Leeds
15. Jon Goodridge 14. Marcel Garvey 13. James Simpson-Daniel 12. Terry Fanolua 11. Seti Kiole 10. Duncan McRae 9. Alex Page 1. Olivier Azam 2. Mefin Davies 3. Gary Powell 4. Adam Eustace 5. Alex Brown 6. Peter Buxton 7. Jake Boer (c) 8. James Forrester Replacements: 16. Nick Wood 17. Terry Sigley 18. Luke Narraway 19. James Merriman 20. Andy Gomarsall 21. Brad Davies 22. Mark Foster	15. Iain Balshaw (c) 14. Andre Snyman 13. Phil Christophers 12. Chris Bell 11. Diego Albanese 10. Gordon Ross 9. Alan Dickens 1. Mike Shelley 2. Mark Regan 3. Gavin Kerr 4. Stuart Hooper 5. Tom Palmer 6. Scott Morgan 7. Richard Parks 8. Alix Popham Replacements: 16. Matt Holt 17. Rob Rawlinson 18. Jon Dunbar 19. Dan Hyde 20. Mark McMillan 21. Craig McMullen 22. Tom Biggs

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