HC Analysis - who will qualify
By Yorkie
January 15 2012
Yorkie's well researched analysis of the Heneken Cup, and just who is likely to progress through to the Quarter finals, and Amlin Cup.
So first the competition rules:
1(a) Pool Matches
Four points for a win, two points for a draw (match points). A bonus point will be earned by a team scoring four or more tries and by a team losing by seven or less points. The six Pool winners and two best placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided by the following criteria:
(i) the Pool winner will be the Club with the highest number of match points earned in each Pool. The runners-up will be the two second placed Clubs from all six Pools with the next highest number of points. For the quarter-final round, the Pool winners will be ranked 1 - 6 in terms of the number of points earned. The runners-up will be ranked 7 and 8.
The knock-out stages of future Amlin Challenge Cup tournaments will include three teams who will qualify through the Heineken Cup.
The introduction of three teams who have finished as Pool runners-up in that seasons' Heineken Cup (the third, fourth and fifth ranked Heineken Cup Pool runners-up), to meet the five Amlin Challenge Cup Pool winners, will enhance both the quality and profile of the Amlin Challenge Cup knock-out matches.
The top four Amlin Challenge Cup Pool winners will enjoy home advantage in the quarter-finals with the top Pool winner playing the 5th, while the other three Pool winners will welcome the Heineken Cup sides.
Quarter-finals qualification if teams are equal:
Clubs in the same Pool
(ii) if Clubs are equal on points and the Clubs are in the same Pool, then qualification / ranking will be based on the two matches played between the Clubs concerned:
(a) the Club which has earned the most number of match points from the two matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).
(b) the Club which has scored the most tries in the two matches.
(c) the Club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches.
Clubs from different Pools (if still unresolved)
(iii) if the teams have not played each other previously in the Pool stage, qualification / ranking will be based on:
(a) the number of tries scored in all Pool matches.
(b) aggregate points difference from all Pool matches.
(c) the Club with the fewest number of players sent off and / or suspended in all Pool matches.
(d) toss of a coin.
CURRENT TABLES AND LAST ROUND FIXTURES
(After each team, I've shown tries scored then league points
POOL 1
Munster 9 20
Saints 15 12
Scarlets 10 11
Castre 9 6
Fixtures left:
Saints v Munster
Castre v Scarlets
The latter of those 2 fixtures not really relevant unless Scarlets win away with a try bonus point to give them 16 points. Not sure who'll win the other fixture. Head says Munster, heart says Saints. So if we go with head, Munster to win without 4 tries, Saints to get a losing bonus point and Castre to win at home without 4 tries, giving the following table:
Munster 24
Saints 13
Scarlets 11
Castre 10
This group is perhaps the most unpredicatable as there is no doubt Saints can beat Munster so the table becomes:
Munster 20 or more probably 21
Saints 16
Scarlets 11
Castre 10
POOL 2
Edinburgh 13 17
Cardiff 6 17
Irish 6 9
Racing Metro 11 8
Fixtures left
Cardiff v Racing
Edinburgh v Irish
Two home win look to be the likely outcome and the only question is who'll get a bonus point and top the pool? As they both need it, I reckon they'll both chase a try bonus and get one making the final table:
Edinburgh 22
Cardiff 22
Irish 9
Racing Metro 8
POOL 3
Leinster 15 20
Glasgow 6 11
Montpellier 8 10
Bath 9 7
Fixtures left to play:
Bath v Glasgow
Leinster v Montpellier
Leinster to win with a try bonus and I reckon Bath will beat Glasgow, just. So final table will be:
Leinster 25
Glasgow 12
Bath 11
Montpellier 10
POOL 4
Ulster 16 19
ASM 25 16
Tigers 9 12
Aironi 4 0
Fixtures left to play:
ASM v Ulster
Tigers v Aironi
ASM will beat Ulster with them not gaining a losing bonus point and if we don't get the 5 league points on offer, we want shooting! So final pool table will be:
ASM 20
Ulster 19
Tigers 17
Aironi 0
POOL 5
Saracens 11 18
Biarritz 13 13
Ospreys 12 13
Benetton 10 6
Fixtures left to play:
Benetton v Saracens
Biarritz v Ospreys
Saracens to win away without a bonus point and Biarritz to win at home, just. Final table:
Saracens 22
Biarritz 17
Ospreys 14
Benetton 6
POOL 6
Toulouse 13 18
Quins 10 16
Gloucester 6 10
Connacht 5 2
Fixtures left to play:
Connacht v Quins
Gloucester v Toulouse
Both Quins and Toulouse to win away without bonus points to give a final pool table:
Toulouse 22
Quins 20
Gloucester 10
Connacht 2
So from that, I deduce the seeds to be:
1. Leinster 25 points
2. Munster 24 points
3. Edinburgh 22 points At least 17 tries
4. Toulouse 22 points 16 or less tries
5. Saracens 22 points 14 or less tries
6. ASM 20 points
7. Cardiff 22 points (2nd in pool)
8. Quins 20 points (2nd in pool)
Giving quarter finals as:
Leinster v Quins
Munster v Cardiff
Edinburgh v ASM
Toulouse v Saracens
9. Ulster 19 points
10. Biarittz 17 points
11. Saints 13 points
All of who get away quarter finals in the Amlin.
I know. All very subjective and much can change if results end up differently to how I'm suggesting. Whilst Saints can screw up Munster's seeding, they are unlikely to get a HC quarter final even if they win. The 3 teams I've predicted to finish on 22 points have much to chase try wise.
We'll all know this time next week.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:01:25:19:35:36 by Tiggs.
To split teams within the same pool who finish on the same points they first use points earned in the games between those two. Cardiff picked up a losing bonus point against Edinburgh, so I believe that they would qualify as third seeds and Edinburgh would be 7th seeds.
I think that is right
Quote:Nev's Left Boot
This is the clearest dissection of the permutations and i agree with almost all of the prediction but think that Ulster may get a Losing BP away - Basis is they know it will guarantee them the Q/F -
I think that is right
They'd better not!
Quote:Keith Jenner
Good analysis Yorkie, but you have made a small error with pool 2, that I also made yesterday.
To split teams within the same pool who finish on the same points they first use points earned in the games between those two. Cardiff picked up a losing bonus point against Edinburgh, so I believe that they would qualify as third seeds and Edinburgh would be 7th seeds.
On the basis that ERC currently have Edinburgh in top slot and Cardiff 2nd, I continued without checking back and put them in the same order with the same points.
In round 3, score was Cardiff 25 Edinburgh 8. Cardiff 4 points, Edinburgh nil. In round 4, Edinburgh 19 Cardiff 12. So Edinburgh 4 points, Cardiff 1 point.
In the games between the 2 teams: Edinburgh 4 league points: Cardiff 5 league points.
So in my analysis, you are correct. Cardiff and Edinburgh need swopping with each other.
Thanks for the correction. You'd think ERC would know their own rules and list the 2 teams in the correct order going into the last round of group games, wouldn't you? Oh, silly me...... it is ERC after all!!!!
Quote:Nev's Left Boot
This is the clearest dissection of the permutations and i agree with almost all of the prediction but think that Ulster may get a Losing BP away - Basis is they know it will guarantee them the Q/F -
I think that is right
Whether Ulster will get a losing bonus point away in France was something I pondered upon long and hard. As a principle, where a team is chasing a result to ensure quarter final qualification, I assumed they'd achieve what they needed. But what swung it for me was the fans I talked to in Belfast didn't think their team had in them another performance like the one they'd just provided against Tigers and so would leave France empty handed.
If Ulster do indeed secure that losing bonus point, it would give them 20 points and with more tries scored than Quins (unless Quins can score 7 more tries away in Connacht than Ulster do in France: would have to be 7 more I believe as Ulster have a points difference of +75 whilst Quins are only +29), Ulster would become 8th HC seed and Quins would slip into the Amlin. But if Quins scored a try bonus point (and Ulster don't) then they'll have the extra league point on 21 and so still qualify for the HC quarters!!
There are so many ifs, buts and maybes!! Just tried to keep it as realistic and uncomplicated as I could. The only thing that is certain is that Tigers need a set of freak, unlikely results to just get an Amlin slot!!
It'll all shake out soon enough!
Takes nothing away from your overall analysis though. Very good.
Quote:Yorkie
Thanks for the correction. You'd think ERC would know their own rules and list the 2 teams in the correct order going into the last round of group games, wouldn't you? Oh, silly me...... it is ERC after all!!!!
It does make quite a difference though.
1. Leinster 25 points
2. Munster 24 points
3. Toulouse 22 points 16 or less tries
4. Saracens 22 points 14 or less tries
5. Cardiff 22 points 10 or less tries
6. ASM 20 points
7. Edinburgh 22 points (2nd in pool)
8. Quins 20 points (2nd in pool)
Which means
Leinster vs Quins
Munster vs Edinburgh
Toulouse vs ASM
Saracens vs Cardiff
In my opinion I don't think Edinburgh will put 4 passed Irish. I also think Northampton might stop Munster from getting 6 out 6 particularly as an Amlin cup spot for Northampton is up for grabs.
1. Leinster 25 points
2. Toulouse 22 points 16 or less tries
3. Saracens 22 points 14 or less tries
4. Cardiff 22 points 10 or less tries
5. Munster 21 points
6. ASM 20 points
7. Edinburgh 21 points (2nd in pool)
8. Quins 20 points (2nd in pool)
Which is then
Leinster vs Quins
Toulouse vs Edinburgh
Saracens vs ASM
Cardiff vs Munster
Of course I'd like Gloucester to beat Toulouse and Quins to get a BP win in Connacht but I don't think either of those is very likely.
Roll on Friday though cannot wait!
'Profit Motive' .. the Vaseline of genocides.
'Reality' .. the new cynicism
1. Munster 25 points 14 tries
2. Leinster 24 points 18 tries
? ASM Clermont 20 points 26 tries
4, 5 or 6 Toulouse 18 points 16 tries
7 or 8 Ulster 20 points 16 tries
Amlin
Quins 17 points 11 tries
Scarlets 15 points 12 tries
Pool 2 should really decide their own fate and how things finally end up and will provide a seed in positions 3 to 6 and probably the other best runner up. Cardiff and Edinburgh have both already got 17 pool points and each have a home tie yet to play. If neither win or if both draw, Cardiff will top the pool and Edinburgh will best the best runner up. If Edinburgh win or draw and Cardiff fail to score a pool point then they're likely to drop into the Amlin due to poor try count (unless Biarritz/Ospreys ends up as a draw).
Sarries should top pool 5 but they have to win away in Italy to make sure of it. If Sarries lose and either Biarritz or Ospreys win with a bonus point then they'd top the pool. There are many ways this group can end up depending upon results but it'll provide a seed in position 3 to 6 and more than likely an Amlin quarter finalist.
So Sarries 3rd or 4th seed with a home quarter final. Biarritz waiting upon results in pool 2 to see if they sneak into the HC quarters as seed 8 or, more likely, end up in the Amlin.
1. Munster 25 points 14 tries
2. Leinster 24 points 18 tries
3 or 4 Saracens 22 points 13 tries
4 or 5 ASM Clermont 20 points 26 tries
5 or 6 Toulouse 18 points 16 tries
7 or 8 Ulster 20 points 16 tries
8 or Amlin Biarritz 18 points 18 tries
Amlin
Quins 17 points 11 tries
Scarlets 15 points 12 tries
Now need to wait and see how Cardiff and Edinburgh get on in their home games.
If Cardiff don't get a bonus point win but Edinburgh do then Edinburgh top the pool and will be 3rd seeds with Sarries 4th seed.
If Cardiff and Edinburgh both win without bonus points then Cardiff will be 4th seeds, Sarries 3rd seeds and Edinburgh 7th seeds.
If either team loses then the other will top the pool and be either 3rd or 4th seeds (see above) with the losing team likely to be in the Amlin with Biarritz as 8th seeds. Goes down to tries scored if lose with a bonus point so Edinburgh the losing team and 2nd in the pool then likely they'll be 8th seeds and Biarritz in the Amlin but if Cardiff are 2nd in the pool after losing with a bonus point then they're definitely in the Amlin with Biarritz as 8th seeds.
If both teams draw then Cardiff will be 5th seeds, and Edinburgh 7th seeds. Sarries would be 3rd seeds, ASM 4th seeds and Toulouse 6th seeds.
If both teams lose without a losing bons point then Cardiff top the pool and will be 6th seeds (Sarries 3rd, ASM 4th and Toulouse 5th). Edinburgh would be in the Amlin and Biarritz 8th seeds.
If both teams lose and only one gets a losing bonus point then the one with the extra point would top the pool. Cardiff definitely 6th seeds if they get an extra point but Edinburgh 5th or 6th seed depending upon tries scored. In this scenario, the 2nd placed team likely to be in the Amlin.
Does that cover all the options?
Final seed list:
1. Munster 25 points 14 tries
2. Leinster 24 points 18 tries
3. Edinburgh 22 points 17 tries
4. Saracens 22 points 13 tries
5. ASM Clermont 20 points 26 tries
6. Toulouse 18 points 16 tries
7. Cardiff 21 points 9 tries
8. Ulster 20 points 16 tries
Amlin
Biarritz 18 points 18 tries
Quins 17 points 11 tries
Scarlets 15 points 12 tries
So HC quarters are:
Munster v Ulster
Leinster v Cardiff
Edinburgh v Toulouse
Saracens v ASM Clermont
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:01:22:17:10:22 by Yorkie.
But Leinster is the only really safe bet imho. Will the
2 Irish semis to be played at the Aviva comng up.....
Semi-final 1: Saracens or ASM Clermont Auvergne v Leinster Rugby or Cardiff Blues
Semi-final 2: Munster Rugby or Ulster Rugby v Edinburgh Rugby or Toulouse
So the Irish mafia fumbled the balls and only got one semi being played in Ireland. Albeit the one guaranteed to have an Irish team in it!!
I've proved yet again that I know nothing about anything....
Quote:seventyeight
Heart says all French final (head says all Irish)
I'd settle for an Ulster v Clermont final. Be reasonably happy with one of those two winning it - especially as I've a spread bet on Clermont.