Worcester v Tigers AP Match Preview

Risky Business                                                                           A commercial airline pilot once confided that if something goes seriously wrong when flying at 32000 feet; you’ll almost certainly die.  Forget the safety drill, forget the life jacket, forget the crouching and holding of knees as you prepare to return to whence you came in the same foetal position, the risk is that you’ll most probably die.    

I drove back up the M1 from the airport - more risk. When I entered my house it was as I’d left it, in spite of an intruder alarm it could have been burgled.  The house wasn’t flooded and it wasn’t burned to the ground. There hadn’t been a gas leak so the house didn’t explode with me and all my worldly goods.  Another risk worth taking – the gamble had paid off. 

Vitamin supplements are the way forward – or not.  The planet is warming - or not. 

We’re told that eating and drinking in a certain way, proscribed by some buffoon who’s got nothing better to do than make studies and do surveys, helps us to avoid a horrible death. Of course a couple of months later some other buffoon will pipe up with a contrary view which the media will also bang on about for a day with a gaggle of talking heads beamed into our homes with their self satisfied, agenda driven, sanctimonious claptrap until the wheel of the 24 hour news cycle turns. I just take the risk and ignore them.  I’ve made it this far! 

It’s a miracle that I’ve survived for so long really.  My human rights steadfastly ignored. I’m not even sure that I was inclusively treated.  A disgrace, a 110% copper bottomed disgrace. 

So  it behoves me at this point to apologise to any hippopotomonstroseequipedaliophobiacs who’re reading this or have any of the other pieces that I’ve written over the past dozen or so years for failing to recognise their needs and rights!

Now from all this you could gain the impression that I’m something of a libertine – if only that were so.  If I don’t have anything to worry about I worry that I’ve missed some dire circumstance that is about to befall me and for which I am unprepared. 

Tony Allen was unprepared, as he ran out to face Northampton at the beginning of October, for the fact that less than an hour later he’d sustain a freak injury that was both career and life threatening, which would see him sidelined for months.  Tom Croft wouldn’t have thought that after his neck injury it’d be a leg injury that was to lay him low one match into the season and to which I could add the happenstance surrounding; Parling, Tuilagi, Smith, Benjamin, Mafi, Morris, Flood and all the rest of Tigers’ wounded. 

The players take enormous physical risks for our entertainment.  Like my boarding an aircraft or driving along a motorway they know there’s danger lurking but neither its magnitude nor its likelihood of manifesting itself. 

The management and Directors of Rugby take different risks.  Cecil Duckworth took a risk in parting company with Richard Hill who’d first guided Worcester back to the Premiership and then kept them there.  He then doubled down by engaging Dean Ryan, who’d had little success at nearby Gloucester, to steer the Sixways based club to the sunlit uplands of the Premiership.  The risk doesn’t look likely to pay off for Mr Duckworth and Worcester, their prospects looking grim as they wait, without a single Premiership victory to their name, for Tigers to come calling. 

Up at Welford Road Richard Cockerill must be checking for broken mirrors and avoiding black cats at all costs after doing his best to navigate his squad, depleted through the injuries and fatigue occasioned by his players, including their endeavours with the Lions and their national teams. 

Steve Mafi was injured then absent on extended compassionate leave and the closed season signings haven’t all worked out as Cockerill would have hoped or expected. 

Tigers should count themselves lucky that there’s been no plague of locusts, drought, pestilence, boils or other disasters. Although they did get involved in a tempest in south west London which saw their LV= match with Quins abandoned but as the fixture was just part of rugby’s answer to the periodic table who really, honestly cared? 

Back then to matters of consequence when Tigers arrive at Sixways this Friday evening on equal points with Quins in fourth spot in the Premiership.  Another Heineken Cup quarter final beckons against Clermont but after the final rounds of the LV= Cup Tigers find themselves having no further interest in the competition. 

This week’s hosts meanwhile are adrift at the bottom of the Premiership with just three points, becalmed some eleven points behind Newcastle.  They are also out of the Amlin Cup, finishing bottom of their pool with a solitary victory, and their further interest in the LV= has also waned. 

Tigers had an unhappy evening at Welford Road last Friday when what was effectively a scratch team lost to Bath.  Tigers’ misery was though as nothing compared to that of Warriors who, in spite of fielding what was pretty much a first choice team, suffered a five try, 42 point to 3 defeat at Sixways. 

This was a selection, I’m sure, intended by Ryan as a practice run for this week’s visit by Tigers but it all went horribly wrong with the criticism of his side’s performance excoriating. 

Richard Cockerill finds himself denied the presence of the majority of a pack of forwards as Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Slater, Parling, Croft and Crane are messing about with England or injured. However if you listen carefully you’ll hear the sound of the heavy horse galloping to the rescue over the Malvern Hills as both Mulipola and Graham Kitchener are reported to be fit. 

Tigers could then field a front row of Mulipola with the world class Ayerza and the ultra reliable Rob Hawkins who are a good scrummaging unit as well as being a trio of excellent ball carriers. 

Worcester are denied the services of British Lion Euan Murray, not though due to international duty but because he reportedly managed to do himself serious damage with an axe during a team bonding barbeque which left the Scot needing bonding of a whole different variety! 

I suspect that Ryan will go with Australian born but Tonga qualified Ofa Fainga’anuku who joined from Glasgow Warriors for this season to see if he fares any better than another new signing, Frenchman Jeremy Becasseau, did against Mulipola in the opening match of the season.  Tigers’ favourite Samoan; Mulipola will be fresh as a daisy and I think Fainga’anuku may have his work cut out. 

Hooking for the Warriors could be Chris Brooker whose start to his Warriors’ career was hampered by injury.  I was very surprised when he left Quins after making his debut way back in October 2007.  I’ve always rather rated Brooker and there must be a good chance that he will join up with his erstwhile colleague from the Stoop; John Andress who will have the unenviable task of taking on Marcos Ayerza, who’s had a couple of weeks off. 

Hard to see much change for the hosts’ front row trio at scrum time and the Tigers’ triumvirate will also take all the stopping with ball in hand. 

It seems as if ex Warrior Graham Kitchener will be fit for the trip to his old stomping ground and without a Saxons’ fixture to cater for I’d like to see him paired with Louis Deacon as Slater is busy being messed about by Lancaster.  I reckon this pairing is an ideal combination of grunt and athleticism. 

Dean Ryan has options at lock but my guess is that he’ll stick with another ex Quin; Percival who sounds to have been one of the few to emerge with any credit from last Saturday’s debacle. He’s always been a good lineout operator and prominent in the loose.  

Argentinian Mariano Galarza, part of the current Pumas and late of Pampas and Leinster, for whom he made four appearances from the bench in the PRO12, has been getting a few starts since he arrived from southern climes after the Rugby Championship and I think he could get the shirt ahead of South African Mike Williams who joined from Blue Bulls this term and who may be on the bench with ex Tiger deCarpentier. 

This looks a close thing to me although if Steve Mafi is retained on the blind side for Tigers it may just tip the balance in the visitors’ favour. 

On the open side should be Julian Salvi for Tigers while the ultra combative Betty looks a likely starter for the hosts.  Betty has about as much subtlety as a Centurion Tank in executing his task and given his performance at Welford Road on the opening day of the season if it’s replicated it’s probably reasonable to not rule out some further interest from the match officials.  Technically it’s difficult to see the ex Cornish Pirate getting the better of Salvi at the breakdown. 

I think that sixty-five time capped Jonathan Thomas will be on the blindside for Warriors with Leonardo Senatore, who’s also ex Pampas and part of the current Pumas, at #8.  The experienced Welsh international would bring composure to the Warriors and with Betty and Senatore the trio would be a big threat around the breakdown where Tigers tactics haven’t been shatterproof. 

For Tigers the departing Thomas Waldrom looks set to continue unless Crane is recovered in which case I’d favour him to start as the Kiwi hasn’t looked himself of late, maybe his mind is elsewhere? 

The Samoan international  ex Tasman and Crusaders’ scrum half Jeremy Su’a doesn’t seem to have lived up to expectations since his arrival at Sixways and my local contacts tell me that he was very poor against Exeter.  

With Hodgson probably past his best I really can’t fathom why Jonny Arr hasn’t had more opportunities, his making just six starts to Hodgson’s seven and Su’a’s nine.  I’ve always rather liked the way Arr injects pace into the Warriors’ attack which can otherwise be as fluid as a bowl of overcooked porridge. 

If Ben Youngs is absent or has been denied sufficient time with the squad due to England commitments and anyway he’s in the slough of a dip in form so I’d prefer to see David Mele start with Youngs getting time from the bench if he’s on hand. At least with the Frenchman’s superior service we won’t see passes being sprayed around like a cow eating custard as has been the case with Youngs of late.  So while there’ll not be the hit and miss of Youngs darts the on duty fly half, likely to be Flood who’s had a couple of weeks resting his bum, will get a decent supply of ball from which to make his plays and not find a clearing kick charged down again. 

With Ryan Mills having just signed for the Warriors there could be changes afoot at Sixways next season at either fly-half, where Mills first made his starts for Gloucester, or at inside centre where he’s been understudying Twelvetrees this term. 

Argentinian Mieres, who joined from the Chiefs, has had the lion’s share of the starts in the Warriors’ #10 shirt while veteran Paul Warwick has been back up.  It seems as if young Mills could be stepping into Warwick’s boots or, with Matavesi off to Ospreys, be getting the inside centre berth next year.  The excellent Clarke being on loan at Leeds for some reason. 

For the moment though I expect to see Mieres start against Tigers and hoping for some go forward ball with which he can be a threat although his kicking success stat is currently barely sixty percent.  

Tony Allen, happily restored, will keep the Tigers’ defence as closed as a parson’s hands at evensong and will be fresh, having played just 100 minutes of rugby since the nights were still light enough to convince yourself that winter was far, far away. 

Remarkable and not a little disquieting that when the ex Gloucester centre is absent Tigers lose all shape with their defence resembling a wet paper bag and their attack consigned to a dune like drift. 

But he’s back and Tigers look and feel and look so much better for it. 

Fijian Ravai Fatiaki looks likely to get a few starts at inside centre with Andy Symon injured while Stelling appears to be vying with Grove for the other centre spot.  

Fatiaki does cough up ball though and if he starts I can see him being targeted. 

With Tuilagi still sidelined I hope and expect that Goneva will be restored to his international position in the centres and that he’s consulted an ophthalmist to ensure that his occasional tunnel vision isn’t a harbinger of anything more serious than white line fever.  I know that there are more “oohs” and “aahs” than welcome a New Year’s Eve firework display whenever Leicester’s favourite Fijian gets the ball but he really needs better shot selection to more often capitalise on the ground he makes by a timely releasing of his colleagues. 

He would certainly give the Scotland international Alex Grove, who’s excellent defensively, something to think about. I like Grove; a West Midlander who qualifies for Scotland through his grandfather; Ron Wylie late of the “Baggies”. 

Grove’s a pacey, classy, tough and most importantly intelligent player who’s scored twenty tries for Worcester since his debut back in the 2006/7 season. But needs to get the opportunities from his centre colleague and fly half and whether he will is a very moot point. 

The Warriors’ attack in the Premiership has been blunt (pity the axe at the barbecue wasn’t!!)with just ten tries scored thus far and with Allen back for Tigers it’s hard to see the hosts getting much joy this time either and if their defence is as porous as it was against Exeter then Tigers could gain an advantage. 

I don’t like the latest ersatz TV incarnation of Conan Doyle’s hero, the whole thing is cinematically too clever by half. Having now become firmly entrenched in the domain of old fartdom,  – “just get on with the bloody story” – I find myself bellowing at the screen but perhaps Sherlock could enlighten me as to the mystery of the missing Thompstone. 

 A prodigious scorer since his arrival from London Irish, neither hide nor hair was seen of him since the Sale match, when he scored another try, until he turned up at the Stoop looking for Noah prior to being scooped up by the Saxons.  Morris hasn’t been in sparkling form for a while so why Thompstone wasn’t partnering Benjamin in the Bath, Treviso or Ulster matches is a conundrum that maybe only Holmes can solve. 

With Benjamin injured and denied a visit to his old home, which he must have been relishing like a salivating greyhound smelling liver-cake and Morris the latest to join the ranks of Tigers’ long term injured, I’d like to see Scully and Thompstone on the wings come Friday and Tait on duty if he’s back from his latest injury, which seems likely and hopefully will be the end of his impression of a piece of Sèvresfor a while.

The epitome of a stalwart; Chris Pennell, who at times seems to be carrying the entire Worcester endeavour on his shoulders will be at full back even though he wasn’t at his best against Exeter.  Pennell will be kicking and running the ball back like a man possessed in the cause of his beloved Warriors but whether he’ll get his reward is another question entirely. 

With Pennell in the Warriors’ back three my guess is that the rugged ex Quins, Exeter and London Welsh Fijian qualified winger Josh Drauniniu will be on the right flank.  He’s twenty-seven now but has scored twenty tries since he returned from Welsh for the 2011/12 season where in his single season with them he scored fifteen tries. 

Similarly veteran David Lemi, also rumoured to be off to pastures new can be devastating in broken play and punches above his diminutive stature, could be on the other flank but my fancy is that it’ll be young Josh Stephenson on parade who arrived this season from Bedford Blues where he scored eight tries from seventeen appearances. 

The try scoring pedigree of these two wingers is undeniable, albeit in a Championship setting, but it’ll depend if either gets the ball in space and there’s the rub of course but the potential is there it’s just not realised. 

Tigers really should win this one and I think they will if there’s not a massive hoisting of hosiery by the home side.