Tigers v Saracens AP Match Preview
By ChrisC
May 5 2014
Reality Check - Perception is the new reality according to some and in the media age I think there's more than a scintilla of truth in that view. Now as this is my last offering of what is now known as the regular season I thought I'd start by considering the media driven perception of the English rugby team's "journey" under Stuart Lancaster which has become a reality for some.
This myth was peddled in the press again last weekend when Johnson’s tenure was characterised as a debacle from which Lancaster “saved” English rugby.
The reality is that for all the puffery, endless acronyms, the clambering on to any passing bandwagon, floods of management speak and pseudo sports’ science coaching babble, coupled with unstinting media support, the “journey” since Lancaster’s appointment has seen England presently in a largely less advantageous position than it was at the end of the previous management’s tenure.
Then England were Six Nations Champions, had defeated Australia in their own backyard, consequently regaining the Cook Cup. And at the end of 2010 England’s position in the IRB World Rankings was fourth just as it is now although immediately before and indeed after the 2011 World Cup they slipped to fifth but who knows where England will stand by the Autumn of 2015, much depends on the outcome of this summer’s trip to New Zealand where I hope that, unlike last year’s visit to Argentina, it really is a full blown series and not a puffed up Saxons’ tour.
So after three years of travel I’m unable to discern the great forward motion portrayed by the media as taking place since the good ship Red Rose set sail all those wearying years and months ago. Even many of the young players, for which Lancaster receives plaudits, were awarded their first caps prior to his arrival.
Yes Lancaster’s England also hold the Triple Crown, a relatively recent confection, proving them, by the narrowest of measures, to be the tallest pygmy in the Lilliputian world of British Isles’ rugby but that ignores the contradiction and inconvenient truth that Ireland are Six Nations’ champions.
I wonder if the reality has dawned upon European Rugby Cup Limited that they should have taken heed of John Donne’s poem:
“Perchance he for whom this bell tolls may be so ill, as that he knows not it tolls for him;.......
But at last the end of ERC is nigh, the bell has truly tolled for them. I just hope that there’s not another bunch of porkers readying themselves for the trough.
“A team of journeymen” is oddly used as a pejorative when describing a player or group of players, yet being a journeyman is an honourable calling; a person who’s served his apprenticeship but has yet to be a master of his trade. In rugby terms this gets translated as a player who’s not a current full international and somehow unworthy.
Imagine though a team comprised of players with the skill, commitment of a Julian Salvi, a Tony Allen, an Ernst Joubert or a Jackson Wray and I could go on to list a whole host of such players. But the perception amongst too many of the less cerebral supporters is that these so called journeymen are in some way inferior. I would argue quite the opposite and that the reality is that they are the very stuff of club rugby.
This week’s visitors to Welford Road arrive for the final fixture of what is perceived to be the relatively unimportant matter of twenty-two matches played in all weathers, through the mordant effect of the ever more voracious international calendar with its adjuncts and the vicissitudes of injuries and, often bizarre, suspensions. This gargantuan undertaking has been manipulated and managed into a mere qualifying competition for involvement in two ancillary matches to decide the English Champions.
I rail no longer against the stupidity of the avaricious construct and the winner of the two extra-curricular matches will be proclaimed Champions. In my heart I know that the Champions are the club that score more league points than any other, even if that achievement is callously airbrushed from history, only the final league table standing as an implacable memorial to the uncelebrated endeavour. That’s my perception and for some; reality.
Saracens’ own reality meanwhile is to be carrying on their balance sheet a massive legacy of losses that have accrued over the last seven seasons and which, it’s probably not unreasonable to guess, will probably be nudged further into the red when their financials for the current fiscal year are published.
The benefit of the pockets their South African backers being as deep as a Witwatersrand shaft and their ongoing largesse is that Saracens are able to continue as a going concern and build a squad of impressive quality and depth. They have also been able to move to Allianz Park and for the second consecutive season top the league as well as appearing in their first (and only) Heineken Cup final when they’ll be hoping to be the last name on the trophy behind the entries for previous English victors: Bath, Northampton, Wasps (twice) and of course Tigers (also twice).
In the Premiership Saracens have the financial clout and structure to compete with the French clubs and Irish provinces but I bet they’d still hoped Nigel Owens would be in charge again in Cardiff when they meet Toulon in the valedictory Heineken Cup Final, the Welshman being kindness itself to them in the semi., even though they needed no help in their magnificent humbling of Clermont. But with a stroke of bad luck they’ve been provided with Alain Rolland making his swansong and as they’ll be playing another French club I’m apprehensive for them!
It is quite remarkable that in Saracens’ demolition of Clermont they were able to field a starting XV of which just one – yes ONE; Alex Goode, started in their away victory at Kingston Park the previous weekend. And still that day Falcons faced a Saracens’ XV in which there were seven players who’d played at full international level and others who’d won honours at age group level and in the Sevens format. Now that’s strength in depth!
Saracens find themselves with the potential to be crowned English and European champions equalling a double previously achieved by both Wasps and Tigers who, in the inaugural season of the end of season knock out cup, also topped the league with a record number of points in what was also the first season of the bonus point system. Tigers went on to record a new table topping points record of eighty-three points the following season, an achievement unsurpassed during the intervening eleven seasons until this purple year for the north London club who, with a match still to go, eclipsed it with eighty-five points after demolishing the demoted Worcester.
Saracens can equal Tigers’ unique achievement from way back in season 2000/1 having already topped the league with a record points haul and with their strength in depth they could be walking off with both the knock out and Heineken cups in what will have been a spectacularly successful season for them.
This Saturday’s fixture is then something of a sideshow for the visitors and with the first round of the knock out cup just a week hence, followed by the Heineken Cup Final the following week and then the final of the knock out cup a week further on, it would not be a surprise if arch pragmatist Brendan Venter who, revenant like, was alongside Mark McCall to witness Saracens prevailing over Clermont, is not counselling the likeable, softly spoken Ulsterman to be circumspect in his selection for the trip to Welford Road.
Against Worcester last weekend surprisingly just Borthwick and the magnificent Burger were rested from the match day squad while they could have sent a team similar to that fielded against Falcons and won but now, with top spot and a first round home tie in the knock out cup assured, it would be an odd decision were the Saracens’ crown jewels not given a break in readiness for the challenges ahead.
Tigers for their part, after their own demolition job on Sale, have booked their tenth consecutive appearance in the knock out cup. In his post match interview in Manchester Richard Cockerill indicated that he’d prefer a trip to Franklins Gardens over a journey to Barnet, which is hardly surprising with its synthetic pitch and familiarity with the surface providing Saracens an advantage which they scarcely need given their consistent form. The Tigers’ Director of Rugby also said that he’d be implementing some “squad management” next weekend. Both comments could be “kidology” of course
If his comments represent reality then he’ll have to pick a team to try and beat the league toppers as Bath are a mere three points behind in fourth place and in their last match play Quins at the Stoop, whose own top four ambitions are still alive thanks to a one point victory over Exeter last Sunday.
I think that whereas Mark McCall can and probably will pick a largely second string team his squad strength will make them formidable all the same whereas my best guess is that Richard Cockerill will indeed engage in some “squad management” of his own, resting any players carrying a hint of an injury.
So this week I’m really having to guess at the likely teams for next Saturday and this is therefore likely to turn out to be even more a work of fiction than usual.
With Mulipola such a key component in Tigers’ current strategy and repeatedly being in the wars I guess he’ll be on the bench with Fraser Balmain getting a start opposite ex Jersey loose-head Richard Barrington with up and coming star Jamie George, who’s had the starting spot on thirteen occasions this term, and in fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brits excluded from the match day squad altogether with young twenty year old Scott Spurling on the bench as he was at Kingston Park.
My guess though is that there’ll be experience on the visitors’ tight-head with the soon to depart Matt Stevens on parade to take on the similarly departing Boris Stankovitch with Ayerza on the bench alongside Rob Hawkins, if he’s fit, while Tom Youngs is rested in favour of Neil Briggs whose line out work, when he came on at Sale, was anyway superior to that of Youngs.
I think Steve Borthwick is unlikely to be denied a final visit to the country’s premier rugby ground for a last hurrah and a farewell from the Welford Road crowd after a Premiership career spanning over sixteen years since he joined Bath from Preston Grasshoppers, making his debut against his current employers who he joined in 2008. The line out master could be partnered by Irishman Eoin Sheriff who’s had less than a handful of Premiership appearances this term with Botha or Hargreaves in reserve.
Meanwhile I can see Graham Kitchener reappearing in the second row for Tigers forming a partnership with Louis Deacon. Parling is obviously light on game time but will Cockerill see him as worth risking in this match when there’s such an experienced option available?
Were, by some fluke, I be found to be accurate in my opinion (there’s a first time for everything!) then the respective front fives would be evenly matched at the set piece.
When it comes to the breakaway unit I expect Burger and Billy Vunipola to be excluded from the starting line up as, like Brits, these two are key to Saracens’ defensive and attacking excellence so I rather expect to see a combination of Jackson Wray, Will Fraser, although he took at knock against Worcester and, with Ernst Joubert out with the knee injury he picked up against Ulster, either of the South Africans; Nick Fenton Wells, or German international Justin Melck, both ex of Stormers and Western Province with Melck also having a season at Munster on his cv.
Tigers will surely not deny Thomas Waldrom a final start at Welford Road before he departs for the delights of Devon especially as Jordan Crane is in spectacular form and also vital to Tigers in the fortnight ahead.
Salvi is similarly central to Tigers ambitions of lifting the cup once again and so it could well be the talented Matera on Tigers’ open side and maybe we’ll get a chance to see Steve Mafi or perhaps even Tom Croft getting an airing to give the excellent Jamie Gibson a break to complete a tight contest between the packs.
Behind the Saracens’ pack I don’t somehow expect to see the talented Ben Spencer start but instead the vastly experienced South African; Neil de Kock looks a likely bet instead of a rested Wigglesworth.
Normally I’d expect this match to be one for Charlie Hodgson but he’s been injured and if that’s still the case McCall will surely be loathe to risk Owen Farrell which leaves Zimbabwean Nils Mordt; late of: London Irish, Saints and Quins as a likely candidate to fill the #10 shirt for the visitors. Mordt’s a decent kicker, creative and, being an international Sevens player, has plenty of pace. He was in charge of the Saracens’ team that won the Melrose Sevens and part of the England Saxons’ team that won the Churchill Cup back in 2007. As I said earlier – strength in depth.
David Mele got himself on the score sheet again against Sale and I reckon he could get a start at Welford Road. He certainly deserves it and Ben Youngs may cede the bench spot to the lightly used Sam Harrison so that he’s fit as a flea come the following weekend.
Owen Williams, by his standards, had a dodgy start with the boot against Sale and he’ll not want to leave nine penalty points on the pitch again, especially as they were kicks he’d have expected to pot, that said the rest of his performance was to a high try creating standard.
Toby Flood will certainly play a part next Saturday so he can bid farewell to the Tigers fans who have watched him play for their club which brought him fame and fortune. Whether that’s achieved by him starting at fly half or not is for debate, although with Tony Allen injured and if Dan Bowden, of whom neither hide nor hair has been seen since he returned after hospitalisation in New Zealand, isn’t fit, Flood could be back at inside centre in preference to Hepetema.
Tigers will have everything crossed that Allen, their most influential back, is fit for the following weekend for once again against Sale we saw how harum scarum the Tigers’ defence becomes when he’s missing.
Brad Barritt is similarly influential for Saracens. It really irks me when people deride players such as Barritt and Allen, largely due, it would seem, to them not being possessed of sufficient “attacking flair”. I do wonder how much such people actually watch, let alone understand, the sport.
It could well be that the excellent American Eagle (who seems able to play pretty much anywhere) Chris Wyles will reprise his start at Newcastle and while the visitors may miss Barritt’s defensive excellence Wyles will bring plenty to the attack.
Argentine international Bosch seems first choice at outside centre these days at Saracens but he’s another I expect to see rested with Tim Streather, who was at Nottingham before joining Saracens, probably getting the start ahead of Scottish international; Duncan Taylor.
Manu Tuilagi is another who looks to still need game time but will this game be one where he gets it? Matt Smith is available and never lets the side down and at least Tuilagi could have more time to be persuaded not to keep jumping out of the defensive system, a predilection that would be all the worse given Allen’s likely absence.
It is so often Goneva that makes the telling score for Tigers that he’s a player who Cockerill may rest and after all he has the option of the similarly free scoring Adam Thompstone waiting in the wings, who’s also not adverse to scoring pivotal tries.
Morris has been lightly used and could be utilised alongside the ever dependable Scott Hamilton completing what would be a very handy and reliable back three for the hosts.
On the wings for Saracens McCall could again deploy Fijian international Michael Tagicakibau, who’s back from a sojourn to Bristol, bringing his pace and against the grain lines to cause havoc in Tigers’ defence if they suffer any of the lapses that allowed Sale to trot over for late tries. Young Sevens’ international and most recently of Bay of Plenty; Kiwi Jack Wilson could be used on the other wing and as he’s lightening fast would be a worthy stand in for Strettle who was also injured against Worcester.
The final bastion of the redoubtable Saracens defence could be in the shape of Ben Ransom who I’ve seen a couple of times. He’s really impressive coming forward and last term was scoring tries for fun during a spell at Bedford.
Odd match to preview but if the teams transpire as I think may be the case then perhaps a close fought home victory for Tigers to send Stankovitch, Hawkins, Flood and Waldrom off with the sweet sound of Shiny Happy People ringing in their ears.
That’s my hope, perception and perhaps even reality.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2014:05:12:20:03:20 by Tiggs.
Your preview as usual is outstanding but reminds me if reminding is needed that Sarries second string are just so much better than ours, I hope to be proved wrong but do not expect it.
We seem to be missing a trick, there is no doubt of our ability to develop fine players it is that we need to develop more.
why I do not know, could it be cash, brown envelopes of a missing link behind the scenes?
I hope your forecast for a possible victory comes to pass after all if any one orchestrate victory it is our excellent DOR.
Thank you for your regular season previews and I hope that we will two further gems before the cricket and holiday season takes hold.
In theory at least we should have the freshest squad in the league given the amount of 'forced rest' we've experienced this season so yes, while injuries are possible they should be less likely and we should certainly not be fearful of burn-out. Add to that the fact that we've had so much disruption this term that consistency of selection - of our best players - has been possible only for the last month and I would imagine further unforced changes will be eschewed.
The only players I'd rest at this point would be Logo and Jules - and possibly OTY - with them all on the bench. I might also find a place on the bench for Crofty, if fit, and get him on at half time.
...
Thanks.
Thank you Chris for a well constructed and thoughtfully written piece. I suspect you are being too humble on the likely accuracy of your predictions. Even if I don't necessarily agree with your opinions re Lancaster, I enjoyed having my perceptions challenged in such a well argued article. It was a pleasure to read-in contrast to some of the nonsense purveyed by those who should know better in the professional press. Keep up the good work!
I would argue for your inclusion in the New Years' honours list for actual, rather than perceived, services to rugby, journalism and wit, but, of course, the exponentially growing volume of tinkling ivories would be a portend of reality in that such appreciation is pre-ordained to glorify those you so rightly vilify. For once the OBE would not be for Other Bu66ers' Efforts, but hey ho
As ever, Chris, sterling and much appreciated
'Lions led by donkeys' .. Lest we forget
Your assumption that "Tigers will surely not deny Thomas Waldrom a final start at Welford Road before he departs for the delights of Devon." seems to indicate you have given up on a home semi. Naturally, being a Saints supporter I wouldn't dispute your judgement, but looking at the Sarries line up do you still rule out closing the points difference gap?
The media has peddled the Johnno = crap, Lancaster = saviour without recognising the similarity in their results and the facts pertaining to who gave first caps to whom. Now recognising the media grind axes and make stories rather than report facts, would it have hurt Lancaster to once step forward and gainsay the media to correct any impression that his predecessor was an abject failure.
Quote:oldtoastersaint
Fair point Stopsy but for most England Rugby fans, including myself,Johnson remains among the handful of greatest ever forwards to don the shirt. You certainly could not say that about his coaching skills any more than you could about Lancaster as yet. The difference is that at this particular point in his mangement term Lancaster's career looks to be in the ascendent.
Durr .. Johnno? Coach? Really?
'Lions led by donkeys' .. Lest we forget
"You certainly could not say that about his coaching skills..." (in comparison to his playing record)
Chris C introduced the 'United Counties' nomenclature when he so vividly described the windmill he's furiously engaged in tilting at :-
"... floods of management speak and pseudo sports’ science coaching babble, ..."
Steve James in the Telegraph Nov 2011 makes the strategic thinking behind Jonno's appointment clear.
"With Martin Johnson’s departure as England rugby manager (note that he was a manager and not specifically a coach, even if he had no qualification to do either)...
A masterstroke of RFU judgement, comparable to the Paul Flowers' Co-op appointment, the idea behind which I'm convinced was nicked from the Mel Brooks script of 'The Producers'. Follow the money on that one at least.
To repeat my earlier post, this is all of Shakespearean insignificance. In consequence of which I swiftly defer to your superior sounding Durr.
... which is of course my point, he was never coach, ergo, he is not be judged on his coaching skills
'Lions led by donkeys' .. Lest we forget
