A Funny Old Season Ahead

ZP
By Chris Chaplin
September 11 2003

Tonsils lubricated? Check! Replica shirt ironed? Check! Car fuelled? Check! Wallet filled? Ah! Three out of four's not bad! But otherwise all set for the 2003/4 season and a funny old season I reckon it's set to be.

Enormous disruption caused by the World Cup until the New Year. Then more disruption caused by the league programme carrying on through the Six Nations, added to which there seems to be more too-ings and fro-ings of players than I can ever remember.

The handicapping system brought about by the demands of the international teams could see a very strange looking league table come the half way point of the season with it having a distinctly topsy-turvy look to it and perhaps some of the clubs usually expected as being front runners having to try and come up through the pack - rather like Michael Schumacher starting at 20th. Exciting? Certainly. But expect sales of antacid preparations to soar in certain rugby towns around Christmas time, and not just because of a surfeit of Christmas Pud.

And when it all ends next May (or June or whenever) what will be the outcome? I don't know but this is my guess.

Bath

Finished 11th last time after chewing their nails down to the quick over the last week or so of the season. I calculate about 30 changes in playing personnel being pretty evenly split amongst those passing through departures and those blinking as they hit the Bath daylight as they get off the red-eye and pass through arrivals. Most eye catching are possibly Robbie Fleck and David Flatman with one of my personal favourites, Michael Lipman, arriving from erstwhile premiership neighbours Bristol, from where no fewer than four of his old colleagues have also made the journey up the A4.

With Balshaw, Catt, Grewcock, Maggs, Danelli and Tindall missing at the World Cup added to Lyle's permanent departure it's hard to see how this disruption with such a massive change in playing staff can bed down as quickly as I'm sure the Bath faithful would want, especially as they've got a new Head Coach in the form of John Connolly to integrate as well. No drop for Bath this year but still lower end. 9th.

Gloucester

League Champions last year but not Champions of England (I know, I know but this is my article!) By far and away the best team in the first half of the premiership last term and it's a pity they bottled it at Twickenham and didn't get the pot to go with their Powergen Cup. Notwithstanding all the marketing generated malarkey of weird play-offs it was good to see a real rugby town able to celebrate a great season. Unfortunate then that some key players felt they had to depart Kingsholm with the last of Phillipe St Andre’s French Foreign Legion heading back across the Channel. Make no mistake Ollie Azam and especially Ludo Mercier will be missed and missed big time in the case of the kicking machine who potted so many points for the team. Some good signings and most notably that of Alex Brown from near ex rivals Bristol. This fine line out specialist should help the one weak spot in Glaws game last season as should Brotherstone and Fortey’s more accurate throwing. Seen as something of a controversial signing in some quarters at fly-half is Duncan McRae's arrival from Australia, we shall need to see whether he can replace Mercier's playmaking skills which came on so much last year.

The World Cup is a worrying time for Gloucester with a badly depleted front row, Vickery, Woodman, Roncero are all absent and once the default first choice props are used it’s through to the academy. Gomersall will also be badly missed as will Fanaloua (although he will play in the opening matches as Samoa don't turn up at the RWC until later on due to financial constraints) young Amor will deputise and if McRae does his stuff and gets Paul into the action then all is well until we get to Fullback where with Delport missing it’s new boy time again with the choice between Teague (yes Mike's boy) and Goodridge and the wings are also thinly covered but of course the extraordinary exclusion of Simpson-Daniel from the Australian adventure will help here no end .

The worries are certainly there for last year's league champions and I think that they'll have to fight hard, which they will. 3rd

Harlequins

Mid table for the multi coloured ones last season which was again patchy although they did get a decent fortress mentality going at The Stoop. More departures than arrivals with some strange losses in the transfers of Alex Codling, Nick Greenstock, Ben Gollings, and Nathan Williams with Codling and Williams being real shocks, well to me at least.

On the positive side the signing of the try scoring prop Mike Worsley from London Irish is a real coup as is that of the superb George Harder from Leeds. There's also seemingly an attempt to reproduce a mini London Irish with the arrival of a trio from Leinster.

Not badly hurt by the World Cup with their being used to managing without Leonard and Greenwood and should have a decent start to the season whether they can keep it going once the opposition are replenished after Christmas remains to be seen. In the end more mid table stuff I reckon. 8th

Leeds

Well with the Leeds fire brigade now having put out the fire caused by the speed of the Leeds pen on it's corporate cheque book and the smoke cleared we can see that there have been fourteen arrivals at Headingly and twelve departures.

I suppose the big shock for me was the departure of the star of the side, George Harder - how did that happen? Braam van Straaten, who almost single handedly at times got Leeds up to European qualification as of a right was the other. The combative Mather was also something of a surprise departure.

The arrivals would seem to suggest that The Tykes are going to play a more expansive type of game than that rather sterile fare that they served up to great effect last time. Speedsters Christophers, Rees and semi-speedster Botham would seem to be putting down a marker. Something of a risk must be swapping Hegarty for the unproven Stuart-Smith but we shall see.

Some key players at the World Cup with the influential Regan and clever Ross as well as new signing Persico all missing together with Albanese, Kerr and Popham. I still expect to see them near the top of the table come Christmas. They may not hold on though for a top spot. 6th

Leicester Tigers

Finishing 6th 2002/3 was a disappointing season for the double back to back league champions and back to back European champions and not a little dissent in the camp by my reckoning, beaten at home in the league by Northampton and London Irish on the last day of the season saw the leading club of the professional era end the season proper suitably chastened for their hubris and then to find their collective will to once again qualify for the senior European competition via another surreal play-off confirmation competition. - Phew.

Ten departures from Welford Road were not counterbalanced by just five arrivals. It has to be said that what the signings lack in quantity they certainly make up for in quality and many opposition supporters would agree with me I am sure that when all present and correct the first fifteen looks the most complete in the premiership with no discernable chinks in the armour. BUT of course Tigers will be grievous damaged by the demands of the World Cup with West, White, Johnson, Kay, Back, Moody and Corry constituting almost an entire pack of absentees. In addition to this Pez may also be on parade in Australia, making no fewer than eight of the first fifteen absent to which must be added the tragic loss of Geordan Murphy until well into the New Year.

This is going to be a mighty ask of Josh Kronfeld and his young pack, now augmented by the unexpected but nonetheless from a club perspective, welcome return of Rowntree, playing as they will against teams that are barely affected in their packs by international call ups. If the Tigers are in the top half of the table come Christmas, it will have been a quite superb performance. However if this is not the case the deficit could prove to be too great to make up in a league that when at full strength (barring injuries of course) is pretty evenly balanced. 4th

London Irish

Having had a good 2001/2 campaign revitalised by Brendan Venter the Exiles slumped into the bottom half of the table last season and were involved in an end of season dogfight for survival which was aided by their winning the closing match of the season proper away at Welford Road.

Just two signings in Canadian International Phil Murphy from USAP and Nick Greenstock from Quins. Irish shed eight players including a number of stokers from the engine room including the excellent Mike Worsley.

Cover the front row looks light but behind them remains some real talent. Venter's departure may see a little more invention and ambition much as could be the case at Leeds.

Untroubled by the World Cup they should gain from stability. It very much depends how their pack goes but I've feeling that they'll have a respectable first half to the season but struggle badly later on and perhaps not have got sufficient clear water to secure a safer position. 11th

Newcastle

Hearts were beating fast up at Kingston Park at the end of last season when the Falcons struggled for premiership survival. Many felt that the Rob Andrew's policy of keeping the cheque book closed when so many experienced players departed at the end of the previous season was seriously flawed and it's hard to disagree. The bank was eventually raided though and the arrival of the fantastic Mark Andrews and Meyerhofler are in no small part responsible for Falcons still being in the premiership.

The second row has been strengthened by the arrival of Garath Archer from Bristol and provided he can be persuaded to avoid taking too many ten minute breaks, his having secured 13 yellow and 2 Red Cards thus far in his career, he should be a fearsome combination with Andrews. Ben Gollings has arrived from Quins and will give much more pace on the wing than did Botham when he was dragooned there.

Brotherstone's departure was a bit of surprise though .

Now that, surprisingly, Walder and Noon are not to take part in the World Cup Falcons are not badly affected by the competition and while any team in the world would miss Wilkinson they do now have Walder back and fit after his terrible time last year although Grimes and Mower will be absent.

I've a feeling that Newcastle may have bedded down now and could be a surprise package but still only mid-table 7th

Northampton

What a strange team the Saints are by turns sublime and abject and terribly hard to forecast. At one time I thought that they were going to be the team to meet Gloucester at Twickenham but then inexplicably they fell away just when it mattered.

Not much happening at Franklins Gardens in the close season Shane Drahm will provide useful kicking cover while Grayson is occupied elsewhere. All Black Mark Robinson will ably fill the gap left by Dawson with Ian Vass having departed for Stade Francais while Renaud Peillard arrives from USAP to bolster the front row. Three astute signings by coach Wayne Smith.

Although Cohen, Dawson, Thompson and Smith are off at the World Cup and the loss of Pountney will be a blow I must say I like the look of the pretty settled Saints squad and I rather think that this could be their year. 1st

Rotherham

Well they made it at last! The question is can they stay up?

Loads of signings, thirteen in fact with six departures. Of the arrivals and without wishing to be dismissive of their talents there are none that stir the blood other than Jorgensen from Saints and Guy Easterby from Llanelli. It's otherwise all pretty workmanlike.

The departures of Ramiro Pez and Mark Giacheri were a surprise although in the case of the former a very pleasant one, when we get to see him that is!

The World Cup sees just Keyter and Gross travelling with the USA Eagles and Guy Easterby in the Irish party I nevertheless think that it's going to be a real struggle for the new boys and while no team who are in the premiership can be under rated (qv Leeds in their reprieve season) I can't see them surviving. 12th

Sale

Eventually finishing fourth last year the Sharks dropped away at the end, due in no small part to the absence of Hodgeson's kicking and there not being a reliable kicker to replace him. That's all changed now of course with Braam Van Straaten enjoying perhaps the shortest retirement in living memory before turning up at Sale.

Aside from the South African kicking star not too much has changed although the arrival of Matt Cairns, and Andrew Sheridan should beef up the Edgely Park pack a bit and the signing of Scottish International Jason White is real bonus in that department. White is currently injured and may miss out on the World Cup so could be available for Sale before long.

Another team not badly affected by the World Cup although they'll miss Bryan Redpath and Robinson. I reckon with the likes of Bond and Hanley behind a strengthened pack they'll be thereabouts. 2nd

Saracens

Well who knows if this will be the year that it all eventually comes right for Saracens? Last year was another one to just polish the trophy cabinet the Men in Black finishing eighth and denied a place in Europe by a rejuvenated Tigers on a sweltering day at Franklins Gardens

It's also another year seeing the arrival of world class players in the shape of Taine Randell and Raphael Ibanez with an astute signing from nearer home as Alex Codling arrives from Quins and Kershaw regularises the arrangement of last season when he was on loan from Wasps for five games and clearly impressed.

Against this Califano, Shanklin, and Flatman are big losses as is the inspirational and truly great Tim Horan and of course the eccentric Wayne Shelford and his team have also gone to be replaced by rookie Head Coach Rod Kafer.

The usual question as to whether this collection of players can become a band of brothers in short order has not been particularly aided by a fractious and already short pre-season with the battle of Agen being an unfortunate interruption to the side's preparation.

Added to this is the question mark over Rod Kafer's abilities as Head Coach. There were some misgivings given his apparent lack of success as backs coach at Tigers and to this must be added his lack of knowledge of the goings on in the dark recesses of the scrum.

The World Cup sees Morgan, Little and Sparg of to Australia but they'll really miss Hill and Bracken and I'm sure they'd rather Ibanez was at Vicarage Road than in Australia too but really just too many question marks again. It would be good to see the side settled and show what it can do but I fear perhaps not a good year for our pals in the Fezs and from the drop in season ticket sales at Sarries the faithful are not convinced either. 10th

Wasps

Timing his team's run with the judgement of Frankie Dettori Warren Gatland

lifted the pot officially designating the team to be recognised in the record book as the English Champions of the 2002/3 season and it's true to say that they were the best team in the league from Christmas onward.

A few changes at Wasps, including their ground, which is now the Causeway Stadium seeing original benefactor Mr Adams' name airbrushed from history in the interests, presumably, of sponsorship.

On the playing staff Tom Voyce and Johnny O'Connor are perhaps the most notable arrivals. While Martyn Wood passed Tom Voyce on the M4 as they swopped clubs and Andy Kershaw renewed his acquaintance with Saracens.

Badly hurt by the World Cup I watched them play Stade Francais in the Orange/Zurich Cup/Championship thingy and even though Stade themselves had new fewer than fourteen players denied them on international duty (according to coach Mallett) they still gave the Wasps pack a torrid time and Wasps didn't look good behind the pack either with no Lewsey, Logan or Abbott. However on that day Howley was ill and Leota and Dowd were both missing both of whom will be on parade and against most expectations Simon Shaw is also back. The question is how will they cope without Dallaglio who seems to be their inspiration. Possibly no dizzy heights this year. 5th

So there we are.

Only my view and if history is any guide I'll be almost completely wrong look what happened to my forecast last year.

So don't listen to me

Chris' Forecast		What Happened
Tigers	1	Gloucester
Gloucester	2	Wasps
Sale	3	Saints
Wasps	4	Sale
Saints	5	Leeds
Quins	6	Tigers
Sarries	7	Quins
Irish	8	Sarries
Bristol	9	Irish
Falcons	10	Falcons
Leeds	11	Bath
Bath	12	Bristol