Tigers - slim chance in Italy

HEC
By TigerR
January 13 2005

Following their disappointing defeat at the hands of Biarritz last Sunday, Leicester Tigers complete their Heineken Cup, Pool 1 matches on Saturday against Calvisano. It now looks as though only one team will qualify from Pool 1, the so-called pool of death.

For Leicester Tigers to win the pool they
(1) need to beat Calvisano and
(2) score at least four tries and
(3) Wasps must beat Biarritz
(4) by more than 7 points
(5) but Wasps must not score four or more tries.

I estimate that a win in Italy (1) is quite likely, say 90%, if Tigers field a full strength team. This may seem arrogant to some but Calvisano’s record of winning in the European Cup, the toughest club competition in the world, is poor. The Tigers record is strong and they are top of the Zurich Premiership. Tigers have also been scoring freely against weaker opposition this season so they have perhaps an 80% chance of scoring the four tries (2).

Now the odds get stretched. Wasps are the European Champions and know how to win away from home. However, they have not convinced me this year that they are good as last year. Biarritz however also have astrong record in the European Cup and have shown an ability to raise their game for these matches.

I estimate a 25% chance of a Wasps win (3) and 50% chance that the win is by more than 7 points (4). The chances of Wasps not scoring four tries is high, if Biarritz defend as well as they did at Welford Road perhaps 80%.

Therefore my estimate of the probability of Leicester winning Pool 1 is

0.9 x 0.8 x 0.25 x 0.5 x 0.8 = 7%

or less than 1 in 14!

Following the enforcement by the ERC of the rule that pool matches on the last week-end by played at the same time, the match will be played not at Calvisano’s regular home ground but at the Campo Comunale di Rovato. Kick-off is at 4pm local time, which means that floodlights are very necessary.

The Campo Comunale di Rovato has floodlights whereas the somewhat larger stadium in Calvisano does not. As a result of selling lots of tickets in advance and lots of Tigers fans booking flights to Italy, Calvisano have sold most of the limited number of tickets to Tigers fans.

This should make for an odd atmosphere in what might seem to be a game without likely reward for either side. No doubt Calvisano would like to beat someone in Pool1 and who better than the double former European Champions Leicester on the other hand might want to work out their frustration from last week-end on whoever they play next i.e. Calvisano. It might actually be a cracker of a match, just like last Sunday, only different.

Men to watch out for: Nitolglia and Patelli (well they scored last week against Wasps)