Season Preview

By Chris Chaplin
August 22 2005

Remarkable though it may seem it’s nearly that time again. I’m preparing the shirt, brushing of the hat and dry cleaning the fleece ready for the opening match of the new season but first my annual thoughts on what’s ahead.

Leicester Tigers
2004/4 – League Winners

In spite of winning the league last term Tigers ended up with another pot-less season the question is will 2005-6 be any different?

With the departure of Martin Johnson and Neil Back from the playing staff at Welford Road and the temporary appointment of Pat Howard to fill the boots of England bound John Wells, until who knows what happens at the end of the season, it is difficult to see the season ahead as anything other than one of transition and, with seven of the first choice pack likely to be absent on international duty for long periods, disruption.

There have been a few new signings although at the moment they must be seen as a nod to the future beyond May 2006 rather than as being likely to make a spectacular impact in the season ahead, for there are none with the kind of stunning pedigree that suggests otherwise as they arrive at Welford Road to be greeted by the Tigers’ faithful.

When the first choice pack is available I see them besting most and reliably getting the settled and talented Tigers’ backs away to demonstrate Pat Howard’s flair but I fear that there will be just too few occasions when circumstances will permit this to happen.
Prediction: Fourth

Wasps
2004/5 – Second
I spite of all that they say Wasps and their supporters must be itching to at last finish top of the league again and win the silly pot so that nobody can gainsay their claim to be champions of England. Will this be the year?

This year they should at last have Stuart Abbott and Fraser Waters back in harness as their centre pairing and that will make a real difference.

The signing of Ibanez is interesting as I never felt that he really lived up to his reputation at Sarries and Jon Dawson, fresh from relegated Quins, has big boots to fill in the new look front row, which may yet be found to a bit underpowered against some of its competitors.

Jeremy Staunton has never been a player I rated in any of his previous incarnations so we’ll see how he goes under the influence of McGeechan and Edwards but if he fails to flourish this time then it could be a return to the Emerald Isle.

All in all I like the look of the Wasps’ side, not so much as a consequence of who’s joined but who’s coming back to join a squad that’s proved their worth, added to which they’ll be relatively untroubled by international call ups and have an outstanding new coach in “Geech”

This could be their year.
Prediction: League Winners

Sale Sharks
2004-5 – Third
The North westerners have been in the running for a couple of seasons now and on occasion look the real deal.

They do seem to have overcome the Achilles heel of an underpowered pack that plagued them for so long and with the impressive Lobbe, White, Chabal and Sheridan, et al they’ll be nobody’s mugs up front.

The half backs and backs have always been a great strength and if Hanley has spent the close season finally learning how to defend there will be few better back threes now that Jason Robinson has had his knee attended to.

StAndre has made some clever signings in Mark Taylor and Epi Taione especially, my only concern is that with more and more Frenchmen seemingly arriving at Stockport by the day the schism that ruined things at Kingsholm, when the dressing room spilt asunder under the weight of our Gallic friends and the Gallic coach, will happen all over again.

Once again Sale will be hit hard by international demands and this may deny them the ultimate prize.
Prediction: Second

Bath
2004-5 – Fourth
Cursed by injury and international demands last term Bath did well to finish as high up the pecking order as they did.

The most notable changes down at The Rec are in the departure lounge where the talismanic Jonathan Humphries has finally hung up his boots and the injury prone Mike Tindall has departed for the royal county of Gloucestershire.

There have been some interesting signings with the excellent David Bory arriving from Castres being the most eye catching for me.

However what is especially impressive is the influx of youngsters from the Bath Academy.

One of my personal tips for the top, the superb Lipman, is again sidelined and the demands on Bath will be none the less as surely Andy Beattie will get the international call to arms.

The Bath pack will be impressive with little weakness evident although whether they will have the cutting edge in the backs is another matter.

A season of transition rather than of achievement ahead I feel.
Prediction: Fifth

Saracens
2004-5 – Fifth
Steve Diamond has done great things since his arrival at Vicarage Road.

His no nonsense particularly “non starry” approach has seen a real esprit de corps finally arrive in Watford.

The arrival of Andy Farrell is therefore somewhat at odds with this new attitude and it remains to see how the league star fits in to the system, especially as he’ll oft be absent having been parachuted into the England Elite squad before touching a ball in union.

It is something of a relief otherwise not see the usual mass exodus and plethora of new arrivals to which we have all be come so used over the past few years.

Setting Farrell aside the signings have been sensible and with an eye to the future rather than the past.

The loss of Richard Hill for the season will not help the Fez Heads cause and I think there’s little coincidence that Sarries played their best rugby last season once the England man was back in harness

I don’t think that Sarries will be able to mount a strong enough challenge to trouble Wasps until they develop more variation to their game but as was seen last season when they play their simple gameplan with ruthless efficiency they can be a formidable outfit and at last they are settled.
Prediction – Third

Gloucester
2004-5 – Sixth
With, in my view, the mistaken disposal of Nigel Melville I expect to see plenty of ten man rugby when the team previously known as the Cherry and Whites (now consigned to the dustbin of history by the marketing men) turn up.

To this end Ludovic Mercier is restored after an undistinguished outcome to his sojourn back to his native roots in an unsuccessful attempt to get onto the international stage.

There were many instances last year when for the want of a metronomic boot, as has Ludo, that matches were lost.

Another Kingsholm old boy Patrice Collazo is similar returned from Toulouse while Peter Richards will try to fill the boots of Gomersall.

The big name arrival is of course Mike Tindall however even if he stays fit he’ll often be absent and I still think that the midfield looks sparse. They have a couple of flyers out wide with the prodigiously talented James Simpson-Daniel back to robust health however with the ever grumpy Dean Ryan in charge they might find things a little boring out there.

Gloucester could, through failing to use the flair that they have, be the limit to their own ambitions.
Prediction – Sixth

Newcastle
2004-5 – Seventh
The Kingston Park side remained mired in mid table mediocrity last term although at one time things could have been distinctly worse.

Aside from the arrival of Wallaby Owen Finnegan the close season signings have the feeling of things all being well and so steady as she goes.

Of those departing I guess that of Craig Hamilton was the most surprising for me as I thought he looked good when I saw him play but obviously Rob Andrew thought differently.

Still possessed of an immensely talented back division I just don’t see that Andrew has done anything like enough to create the commanding forward platform that has been craved at the north eastern outpost for so long so as to enable a reliable launch pad for the backs.

Even if Jonny Wilkinson is restored and back to his best he can’t make bricks without straw so if the aim is steady as you go then I think that even that may not be achieved.
Prediction –Ninth

Leeds Tykes
2004-5 – Eighth
I rather hope that Tykes’ theme song will be the Great Escape after their fantastic recovery in the closing weeks of last season.

There is something really likeable about this team and especially Phil Davies who looked relegation straight in the eye and didn’t blink, and neither did his players.

Two really good signing here in Justin Marshall and Gordon Bulloch both of whom are now freed from international demands.

A fair old clear out has also taken place with some surprising departures in Alix Popham, Colm Rigney, Duncan Hodge and of course Mark Regan.

When the chips were down in the closing stages of last season the pack fronted up where they had failed to do so earlier and if they are going to give Marshall a chance to weave some magic they’ll need to hit the straps from day one this time.

In any event I think that they’ve got their second premiership wind now and that they’ll do a little better than last time but without the tension of a imminent drop into National One.
Prediction - Seventh

Worcester Warriors
2004-5 – Ninth
After flirting with danger all season the new boys not only hung on but scrambled their way to a very creditable ninth spot.

I think that as I said last year John Brain got it just about right in keeping a sizeable rump of those players who saw Worcester safely promoted augmenting them with some astute signings.

Well for their second Premiership they’ve had a rare old clear out with about seventeen players getting their marching orders and I hope that such a raft of changes does not unduly unsettle the togetherness that saw them achieve such a lot last year.

The Warriors’ pack went well all season with Gilles one of the stand out locks in the Premiership.

The much travelled Emiliano Bergamaschi has been recruited to give even more grit to the pack together with Gloucester stalwart Chris Fortey, who’s move was as big a shock down Kingsholm way as was that of Fidler going to Bath a few seasons back.

The weakness at Sixways was always at half back where the various combinations were often barely adequate but the coup of signing Drahm from Saints and Gomersall from Gloucester will surely resolve that issue.

I don’t honestly expect them to set the world on fire but I do think that they’ll be more secure this time.
Prediction - Tenth

Northhampton Saints
2004-5 – Joint Eleventh
All hail the arrival of King Carlos!

I think I’m right in saying that Saints have made the greatest number of personnel changes – I make it 28 excluding promotions from the Academy.

I suppose the most notable departure is that of Andrew Blowers who has been a wonderful servant to the East Midlands side and he’ll be missed in his go to role.

The greatest interest will be without doubt the Kiwi half back pairing of Robinson and Spencer. Spencer, on his day and going forward, is a genius and has the ability to get his backs into play in dangerous positions.

My question is whether Budge Pountney has done enough to make his pack a real force to be reckoned with and able to give the half backs sufficient quality possession with which to play and how much will they miss Drahm’s boot.

If anything maybe there have been too many changes at Franklins Gardens and with so many players getting to know each other they could struggle with continuity.

Unlikely to be troubled by international demands they’ll have a better season and much will depend on whether the jewel in their crown will play well without letting his head drop if things are not going to plan.

A pretty safe season but the pack could be a worry.
Prediction – Eighth

London Irish
2004-5 – Joint Eleventh
As much as I have great affection for London Irish I have to say that on the occasions I saw them play last season they were truly awful.

I thought that their pack put in real graft and honest toil but once it got beyond them – well oh dear!

There’s a new coaching set up down at the MadStad these days with new man Smith obviously having some new ideas and he has gone shopping in the southern hemisphere (anybody remember that happening before??) and has even drafted in a League player!

Strangely enough, and of course this only goes to show how little I know, some of the better players seemed to have shipped out. The only time I thought that there looked to be any chance of things happening was when Mark Mapletoft was on parade and he’s gone. Geoff Appleford showed real class, he’s gone. Sackey has been reborn at Wasps. Tony Roques was pacey but also now gone.

The Irish back row was combative and just what the ageing Olivier Magne will bring to the party remains to be seen.

I rather get the impression that the new management team are already thinking more of survival than anything else and that it’ll be pretty stodgy fare.

Prediction – Twelfth and relegated

Bristol
2004-5 – National One Champions
Having won the National One league (that’s where coming top actually gets you the pot – I’ll tell you a story of olden days sometime when that used to happen in the Premiership) in some style and Richard Hill, who by the way did all the groundwork for StAndre’s achievements at Kingsholm, has dug deep and built up his squad.

Hill has kept faith with a good few of those who got the ex-Shoguns back into the big time and that can only be a good thing. He has linked this in with some good strategic signings such as Mark Regan, Vaughan Going, Mark Denney the talented Andy Reay and Roy Winter from Quins and watch out for young Rory Teague newly arrived from Glaws.

Without doubt the boys at the Memorial Ground will need to be on their mettle but I think that in Richard Hill they’ve got exactly the right man for the job of keeping them in the Premiership.

It could be a dogfight with London Irish but I think Bristol may just prevail.
Prediction – Eleventh

Now as I said at the outset this is all a bit of nonsense and if you look at how last year’s predictions turned out you’ll see what I mean!

ChrisC Forecast What Happened
First Wasps Tigers
Second Tigers Wasps
Third Bath Sale
Fourth Gloucester Bath
Fifth ` Saints Sarries
Sixth Falcons Gloucester
Seventh Sale Falcons
Eighth Quins Leeds
Ninth London Irish Worcester
Tenth Sarries Saints – Joint 11th
Eleventh Worcester London Irish – Joint
Twelfth Leeds Quins

Better not give up the day job!!!