Saracens aim for Massif win

 

The French side may be under new management, but many of the players who had gone so agonisingly close, so often, are still in place. So, who can we expect to see in place in this match? Given the selection against Oyannax, probably very close to the team which demolished Saints. That saw the in-form Nick Abendanon, the former Bath stalwart, score a try from full back, whilst French international Noa Nakaitaci was on the right wing, claiming two tries, with powerful Fijian Naipolioni Nalaga, set to move to Toulon next season, on the left. A powerful centre partnership paired Welsh international Jonathan Davies with long-serving French international Wesley Fofana, who got the other try. Australian Brock James at fly half, who has 262 appearances for the club, going back to 2006, combined with scrum half Ludovic Radoslavjevic, who has in excess of a century of matches for the club. In the forwards, stalwart Vincent Debaty was at loosehead prop, with Georgian Davit Zirakashvili, here since 2005, at tighthead alongside French hooker Benjamin Kayser, whilst in the second row, where Canadian Jamie Cudmore, in his tenth season at the club, featured alongside Sébastien Vahaamahina. The back row consisted of captain Damien Chouly alongside fellow Frenchman Julien Bonnaire in the flanker roles, and the Samoan Fritz Lee at number 8, with club stalwart Aurelien Rougerie, who has been at Clermont (and Montferrand) since 2000, on the bench

 

With that potential line up, on their day, there is no doubt that Clermont are an even powerful and impressive side than the much-feted Toulon. However, there is a significant psychological flaw which has seen a side of such ability make a modest claim of one European Challenge Cup, in 2007 against Bath at the Stoop, and a maiden French Championship against USA Perpignan three seasons later. Earlier in that campaign, they lost a notorious Quarter Final against Leinster at the RDS, 29-28, with Brock James off target with five penalties and three drop goals, and Morgan Parra missing another kick too. However, the following year saw them miss out on the knock-outs entirely, as eventual winners Leinster topped the pool, and a double over Saracens proved insufficient for the French side.

 

2012 saw the paths of the three sides cross again, as Saracens improved from their poor pool showing in 2011 to advance into the Quarter Final, but Clermont were far too strong, winning 22-3 at Vicarage Road. This provided the impetus for some new additions to the Sarries pack, and arguably can be traced as the turning point which has seen progress to the powerful defence we are now accustomed to from Saracens. However, they missed out again to Leinster, in the Semi-Final this time, as the Irish province won 19-15 in Bordeaux, Wesley Fofana dropping the ball over the try line with just two minutes left. 2013 seemed to be when they would finally make the breakthrough, as Montpellier were easily beaten in the Quarter Final, meaning a clash with Munster in the Semi-Final, ironically in Montpellier. ASM won 16-10 against the Irish side, who nevertheless could have snatched it at the end, as the French side struggled to convert their dominance into points on the scoreboard. That failing came to haunt them again. Notoriously, they dominated possession and territory in the 2013 Heineken Cup Final against Toulon in Dublin, but, in a similar way to Leicester last week, couldn’t break through a well-organised defence no matter how hard they tried, losing 16-15. That was, indeed, their only final appearance to date.

 

Nobody needs much reminding of what happened last year, but here it is anyway. A nervy 22-16 home win for Clermont over Leicester served up a Twickenham semi against Saracens, who won 46-6 setting two new records for both points scored and winning margin in a semi-final, as the Men in Black surged to a 14-3 lead in as many minutes through an Ashton try and penalty try, which also saw James sin-binned for a deliberate knock on. Despite the huge score, which saw further tries by Owen Farrell, Ashton, Wyles and Tim Streather, making six in all, it was a supreme defensive effort from Jacques Burger in particular, who went through a huge number of tackles, which blunted any hopes of a comeback. It finished honours even in the pool stages this season, as Sarries emerged with a try bonus point in an entertaining 30-23 Allianz Park success, and travelled to Montferrand for the last pool match having already qualified due to results elsewhere, barring a 35 point defeat, but still chasing a home Quarter Final. Clermont earnt an 18-6 win to set up a showdown with Saints, and their place in the semis was assured by half time as they had established a 27-0 lead, on their way to a 37-5 victory, and a tenth straight home Quarter Final home win, but results at the Stade Marcel Michelin have rarely been an issue.

 

In contrast, Saracens qualified for the semi in the tightest way possible, and throw in the dramatic LV Cup Final win, not to mention the early season league encounters against Wasps and London Irish, and “a team which fights right to the end” is an accurate description, not just a cliché. And having done it before, they can do it again. It goes without saying, that first and foremost, a powerful whilst disciplined defensive effort will be needed, as it was at Racing Metro. Replicate that, and keep in touch if Clermont edge ahead, and anything is possible, even if the pundits who astutely tipped an away win in Paris now expect the French side to progress. In truth, such analysis seems to depend on playing resources, without the mental angle. If Saracens find themselves within range of Clermont in the closing stages, I would heavily tip them to win, given the respective mental strength of the teams, and the number of times Clermont have struggled in the closing minutes, not just in defeat, but in narrow wins. Sarries, though, are on an upward curve, and have delivered far more often in big games, TMOs notwithstanding. They might just do it again here.