MORE OF THE SAME PLEASE

The conundrum for the team selection for this match is whether to pick another strong line up, or with one eye on the key match at Wasps on 27 December, make some adjustments. Although, in practice, the maintenance of quality in performance, and consequently, results when changes have been made has been a decisive factor in the excellent start to the season, as the players seem pretty much interchangeable in the best possible sense, delivering continuity of performance if not selection, most notably in the Worcester game at HQ. Sunday's win saw Saracens dominate in the scrum and forwards, pretty much as expected, but allied to some fantastic counter attacking from Alex Goode and excellent creative play from Owen Farrell which he is not always acknowledged for, with Chris Wyles and Will Fraser also in the thick of some incisive play. Tries continue to come from all sorts of different sources, and so it proved, as Michael Rhodes was at the heart of the fourth and fifth tries, allied to an excellent defensisve display, and Schalk Brits served up the sixth right at the end. My feeling is that it's probably one match too early to make wholesale changes, particularly as the home Quarter Final should be earnt barring any horror shows against Ulster and Toulouse. 

 

Hence, a possible line up has Goode continuing at full back, with Chris Ashton staying on the right, but Mike Ellery slotting in on the left outside an unchanged centre partnership of Marcelo Bosch and Brad Barritt, with Farrell continuing with Wigglesworth in the half backs. Into the forwards, and Mako Vunipola should continue at loosehead, with Brits swapping into the starting XV and Juan Figallo remaining at tighthead. The revised combination of Jim Hamilton and Maro Itoje should continue at lock, with the back row revised to include Rhodes, Fraser and Jackson Wray. For Oyannax, the question is whether their attentions will now turn to Top 14 survival, and, if, as a result, they opt to change their starting XV. Indeed, the line-up deployed against Saracens had already seen substantial changes from that which lost 27-3 in the previous Top 14 game at Stade Toulousain. Quentin Etienne would be expected to continue at full back, but be particularly fluid as to their backline selections, so we may see a similar selection to that in Toulouse, with Alaska Taufa and Fetu'u Vainokolo on the wings, outside Guillaume Bousses and Vincent Martin in the centres. At half back yet another Premiership player, Rory Clegg, should continue alongside scrum half and captain Fabien Cibray. Into the forwards. and Soane Tonga'uiha should continue at loosehead, with Jeremie Maurouard remaining at hooker and Marc Clerc coming in at tighthead. Leon Power and Fabrice Metz could be the revised lock combination, with a back row consisting of Pierrick Gunther, Olivier Missoup and Pedrie Wannenburg. 

 

Looking elsewhere, the scanning of the betting odds is a particularly interesting barometer of the state of play. Whilst Toulon remain marginal favourites to triumph in Lyon, presumably due to the recovery of their domestic form, Saracens are now second favourites, in the aftermath of Clermont Auvergne's defeat at an Exeter Chiefs side who are just getting better and better. Racing Metro are fourth favourites following their comprehensive demolition of Northampton Saints, whilst the odds on Leicester Tigers have shortened considerably given their equally impressive win at Munster. Ulster now look the likeliest of qualifiers of the Irish provinces, although that seems a long shot given that a win at either Toulouse or Copthall would be needed, with Munster offering little to suggest they can win in Leicester or Paris, and Leinster effectively out of the competition already.  

 

More specifically, pool-wise, in Pool 1, Saracens' home clash with Ulster appears to have more significance now than the trip to Toulouse now, although this pool perhaps looks more likely to yield just the one qualifier given that Toulouse and Ulster are both poor travellers. In contrast, Pool 2 is more open than would have been predicted, and Exeter could have been in an even stronger position had they won at Ospreys in the first match, with Clermont still seen as odds-on favourites to take the pool. Much seems to hinge on their trip to Swansea and whether Ospreys can spring a landmark victory. Moving to Pool 3, Racing Metro are now tipped to win it, although the Friday night clash at Northampton will remain intriguing, as the Saints would still seem capable of winning their three remaining games, with Glasgow at home and an already out of contention Scarlets in the last match. Topping the 100 point mark in Pool 4, Leicester Tigers have taken control with relentless ease, and Stade Francais should use their three remaining home games to qualify alongside them, brushing off the challenge of Munster. Pool 5 remains remarkably open, particularly given Bath's last gasp win at Wasps, although few would have predicted Leinster collecting a solitary point from three games. The final game between Bath and Toulon at the Rec looks like a potential pool decider, although more twists and turns seem likely before then.