Match Preview - Daydream Believers

The pool stages of the Heineken Cup come to a climax this weekend and i t doesn’t get much tougher than a trip to Biarritz . Last week it seemed like we had little to play for , but with Ulster winning last weekend, it seems like this game now has some genuine meaning.

Here are the (lengthy!) permutations: If pool points are even between two teams in a pool they add up the  match points scored from  when they played against one another. Whoever has the larger cumulative points from those two games takes the higher position.

So, if we beat Biarritz by more than  seven points (denying them a losing BP) then we will both  have 17 points . Bath   would then finish above them in the pool on game points difference (they only beat us by one point at The Rec remember) . If we score  four tries (and they don’t) but they get a losing BP  we will need to beat them by three or more points to finish higher . If we win  by more than seven points AND get the try scoring BP, then we get 18 points and they finish on 17. This of course will not decide the pool! Ulster travel to Aironi on Saturday and  therefore are probably favourites to finish top. They only need a losing bonus point to finish above us in the group, regardless of whether we score  four tries whilst beating Biarritz , as we lost both our games to them.  If we beat Biarritz, deny them the losing BP whilst getting the try BP AND Aironi beat Ulster without a losing BP, we win the group!!!  And........breathe!!!

The closeness of it all suits us though . Biarritz have the points scored advantage over Ulster if they finish evens in the pool, so essentially they are the only team who has their destiny in their own hands. Ulster stand a good chance of getting all five points at Aironi so Biarritz may feel they have to score four tries against us. This would hopefully open u p the game and I think suit us more than them. A win will almost certainly give them a place in the knockout stages as one of the two runners up though so it’s not guaranteed that they will choose to go for the tries from the offset.

So winning the group is extremely unlikely, but w hat does  it mean if we do manage to finish second ?   Quite a bit as it happens. Five of the six pool runners up progress through to one of the competition quarter finals (all away fixtures). The top two into the Heineken (an outside chance we could still do this) , the next three the Amlin. We would be guaranteed Amlin as both Castres and Munster are second in their pools but with only 11 points , therefore unable to score more than our potential. It's a lot of Maths, but essentially is in our hands to move forward.

I want to spare a short moment talking about last weekend. I felt that only an emphatic win would mean something to us - we certainly got one! OK, Aironi aren’t great on the road and weren’t at their strongest, but instead of stuttering through (like we have for much for the season) we put them to the sword properly . It wasn’t perfect, but I’m convinced was the confidence boost that the team needed. I harp on about momentum most weeks, but it really is key. News of more re-signings (note the hyphen Olly!) was an awesome boost for the supporters this week, so must have a great effect on the guys as well.

 All in all, I feel good about Saturday ; we have nothing to lose so can hopefully play without inhibitions or pressure. Three wins on the trot, unbeaten in 2011 ...... dare we hope f or a trophy after al l?! One step at a time maybe.