Rugby World Cup Pool by Pool Preview – Part 2

By Lawrence Aggleton
June 29 2011

So, having established that New Zealand will beat England in the final in part 1 of this preview, we can just breeze through part 2, right? Well, there'll be a couple of teams who might disagree with the initial analysis, including what I think is the best value bet in the competition.

Pool C

Australia

Last World Cup – Semi Finalists (lost to England)

World Ranking – 2

So... somehow Australia are ranked second in the world. You can say with certainty it's not due to the strength of their tight five. Flattered by a thorough shellacking of a disinterested French team last autumn, from an English perspective it's pretty difficult to take them seriously as contenders. In fact I think they've got a real challenge on their hands with an underrated Ireland in their group. Class in their backs and a real mental strength might sneak them through, but this is the hardest group to call for me. If they get through the group, a straightforward game against (likely) Wales should push them to a last four date with England. Where they will get spanked by the uninspired but efficient Poms.

Prediction: Semi-finalists

Ireland

Last World Cup – 3^rd in their group

World Ranking – 5

OK, so I've predicted that Aussie will beat them, but to me Ireland represent the best value bet you can get. If they can beat Australia (and believe me they can) then only Wales and England stand in their way of a final. You can (and I have) get 11/1 on them to make the final.

Yes, their team is ageing, but the World Cup rewards experienced. They've got an all-time great at outside centre, Heineken Cup winners throughout the team and the best back row in the Northern Hemisphere. There's some weakness in the front row, but Australia, Wales and England aren't gonna exploit that weakness. So, basically, beat Australia and a World Cup final awaits.

They probably won't do that, but there's value there.

Prediction: Quarter Final loss to New Zealand.

Italy

Last World Cup - 3^rd in Group

World Ranking – 12

A great win against France at home in the 6 Nations and Italy are doing pretty well. They're plucky, they're passionate, they're Mediterranean, they're going nowhere in this group. Two comfortable wins, two comfortable losses, 3^rd.

Prediction – 3^rd in group.

Russia

Last World Cup – Uninvolved

World Ranking – 19

Russia are an improving team and it's clear that the Olympic carrot of the 2016 Sevens tournament is helping drive investment. A mouth-watering clash against the Yanquis awaits in this group, but it's still to early for them.

Prediction – bottom of the group

USA

Last World Cup – Bottom of the pool.

World Ranking – 16

OK, this pool is boring me now. The top two are really interesting, the rest are really obvious. Expect the Americans to put up a decent fight against the Italians and sneak a tough battle on pride vs the Ruskies.

Prediction – fourth in group

Pool D

South Africa

Last World Cup – Champions

World Ranking – 3

There's so much talent, so much power, so much, well, beef in the Republic that they'll always be there or abouts in the World Cup. What's stopping them this time then? Well, how about an innate conservatism, a nut-job of a manager and comfortably the hardest route to the final. They should win their group, but will face tough physical challenges against Fiji and Samoa and a theoretical style challenge from Wales. Quarter finals will bring Ireland or Australia and then the semis bring the All Blacks. Ouch.

Prediction – Semi-Final loss to New Zealand

Wales

Last World Cup –Third in Group

World Ranking – 7

Imagine if they had to play the whole of Samoa? Well now they do. And Fiji. And the Saafas. By World Rankings and funding, Wales should comfortably qualify from this group to get spanked by England in the Quarter Finals, but they've been so up and down recently it's difficult to predict. They could easily lose to Fiji and Samoa, but pull out the performance of a decade and beat South Africa. Sadly this will probably go boringly and they'll finish second.

And then get spanked by England.

Prediction – Quarter Final loss to England.

Fiji

Last World Cup – Quarter Finalists (lost to South Africa)

World Ranking – 10

A draw against Wales in the autumn and a close loss to Italy show just how tough to beat the Fijians will beat. South Africa will be a bridge to far, but expect a battle royale for second with the Welsh and the Samoans

Prediction – Third in group.

Samoa

Last World Cup – Fourth in Group

World Ranking – 11

Tonga finished above them last time out, but Samoa are a talented and tough team. I could easily see them taking a game off either Fiji or Wales, but the likelihood is they'll finish a tight second in each of those games.

Prediction – Fourth in Group

Namibia

Last World Cup – Last in Group

World Ranking – 20

Last time out, Namibia scored 30 points and conceded 212. That's 7.5 points for and 53 against each game. Sadly I think those numbers are only gonna go outwards.

Prediction – Bottom of the group.

Rugby World Cup Pool by Pool Preview – Part 2

Posted by: BathRugbyEre.co.uk (IP Logged)

Date: 29/06/2011 21:49

What do you think? You can have your say by posting below.
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2011:07:09:10:29:49 by Glen The Ed.