Match Preview - Opportunity Knocks

This Sunday Bath travel to the Kassam Stadium in Oxford to play Premiership new boys London Welsh. At the start of the season I had this down as a clear five points to Bath, but as last weeks opponents Exeter have already proved, coming into the Premiership does not necessarily result in an automatic return to the Championship the following year. 

I felt that last weekend was a positive step forward for Bath Rugby. In a truly absorbing and intense physical battle, Bath came out on top against Exeter Chiefs, who really pushed us to the limit. This was thanks mainly to an excellent first half performance where Bath kept the ball in hand, were solid at the breakdown, strong in the set piece, and clinically took their chances when they came. Equally as impressive was a phenomenal defensive effort, especially in the last 15 minutes, where we were down to 14 men, as well as having three props on the field. Character building stuff, if not great for the nerves!

London Welsh have been a pleasant surprise this season. Lots of us (me included) almost felt sorry for them at the start, assuming that a team who didn’t even come top of the Championship, could possibly mix it with the ‘big boys’ from the Premiership. How wrong we were. Welsh have already beaten Exeter at home and Sale away, as well as being extremely unlucky not to have got a result against Gloucester and Saracens. Their loss in the first match of the season to Leicester was also a score line that did not reflect the nature of the game.

As it is with many teams that are tricky to beat, Welsh have a grizzled pack and a solid set piece. They work incredibly hard and have plenty of Premiership experience to draw on from within their squad. Bath are going to have to go toe to toe with the men from Richmond in order to get a foothold in this game.

With the International options of Gavin Henson and Gordon Ross at fly half, London Welsh have a handy set of backs. There is a good balance of finesse and physicality from Seb Jewell and Welshman Sonny Parker in the centres, as well as the pace of ex-Bath man Nick Scott on the wing. In fact, I count ten former Bath players in their squad; playing or not, they will be driving a victory in this game I’m sure.

The difficultly of playing a newly promoted team is two fold. Firstly, they have nothing to lose. The bookies, journalists, pundits and I’m sure fans, except them to be the underdogs and I think the lack of expectation allows them to express themselves more than a team such as Sale or London Irish. Secondly, they will look at every game like a cup final, and from what I have seen so far, they just don’t stop going at teams until the final whistle. This means that any slacking off or underestimation, and they will take advantage.

This week is a very big opportunity for Bath to get themselves further up the table, as four of the top five play one another. Coming into the game off the back of a run of three victories is key, especially the nature of the tough wins in the last two matches. Bath simply need to remember to play with the same intensity they have taken into those games, and really push hard to put Welsh on the back foot early on.

Selection will depend mostly on injuries, and I think we are all about to be very grateful for having such superb depth in our back row. Louw looks 50:50 to feature, with Fearns and Taylor also unlikely. Nick Koster is now here so (providing the aforementioned three are all unavailable) it will be a fight between Ovens, Mercer and Koster for the two available slots in the 23. I would think that it’s too early, as well as not earned, to start Koster, but who knows. Will Skuse was very good on Saturday, making a total of 20 tackles (and he didn’t even start the game!) so will surely retain his place.

Our fantastic front row is being slightly disrupted this week as Davey Wilson is now absent with England. This is likely to pave the way for Anthony Perenise to get a start in the front row, but also gives Kane Palma-Newport a chance to stake his claim to a place in the regular 23 with an appearance from the bench. Both will be up against the giant Frenchman, Franck Montanella, who is a formidable scrummager as well as already having touched down for two tries this season. At Loosehead we have our very own wrecking machine however in the form of Paul James, who is proving to be a phenomenal signing. We really will miss both him and Wilson during the Autumn Internationals.

In the second row the conundrum starts once more as Hooper returns to the squad. Day and Attwood have not put a foot wrong, but I believe that the Captain’s influence is key. It was Hooper who won the key turnover with four minutes to go on Saturday, allowing us to clear our lines and then get the decisive penalty. Attwood will probably get the nod over Day with a superbly physical performance. Not only did he carry well, but he topped the Premiership stats for the week with 22 tackles in the game. Impressive for any player, let alone a second row.

Providing Hipkiss escapes a ban for his red card, I don’t expect the backline to change. They all had good games, with Ben Williams really beginning to show how good he can be if he stays fit. I loved watching Kyle pop up at fly-half, and great to see him on the score-sheet again. He really is becoming such a good player considering the number of games he’s started. Banahan is close to being fit, but for me he now needs to win his place back. I actually feel the same way about Tom Heathcote and a slot on the bench, Vesty has really been playing well, so Tom must earn the right to play.

My team:

1. James. 2. Mears 3. Perenise. 4. Hooper. 5. Attwood. 6. Ovens. 7. Skuse. 8. Skirving. 9. Claassens. 10. Donald. 11. Biggs. 12. Williams. 13. Hipkiss. 14. Eastmond. 15. Abendanon. Replacements: 16. Sharman. 17. Catt. 18. Palma-Newport. 19. Day. 20. Mercer. 21. McMillan. 22. Vesty. 23. Agulla.

Just because this is a game that we theoretically should win, doesn’t mean that we will. Bath need to continue to step it up and attempt to dominate the game up front. We must earn the right to go wide and work hard to bring our back three into the game. It is here where I feel we have a genuine edge, but we must still play with intelligence in the right parts of the field.

As another break in the competition arrives, Bath need to stake a claim for the top six by proving they can beat the teams below them, both home and away. The progress made in the last few weeks will count for little if we take a step back on Sunday. The points are up for grabs, but rest assured, London Welsh are not going to be giving them away.