Match Preview: Playoff Showdown at the Stoop

Bath travel to the Stoop this Saturday in need of a result to secure a playoff spot. After a thunderous, nail-biting & ultimately frustrating draw against Northampton Saints last Friday, Bath now know they must get at least 2 points from their visit to West London.

A losing bonus point will not do as that would mean Quins have more wins – which takes precedence over points difference. A draw, or a losing bonus point with a try bonus point can do it (as long as Quins score fewer than 4 tries themselves). I doubt the squad will pay much attention to permutations before the match: they will set out to win.

Recent Quins form suggests they will probably start favourites even if they have struggled for consistency this season. Their woes have come during international periods, or when blighted by injuries and their recovery from 23-5 down at Sandy Park was most impressive. Even missing Mike Brown and core forward George Robson, they were able to call on the experience of an elite group of internationals at the pivot of the team: Easter, Robshaw, Care & Evans made telling contributions to the 3 tries they seized in the second half to snatch the close win. They will exude self-belief as a result, not to mention motivation in front of a sell-out home crowd.

Against that, Bath appear to have another mountainous challenge to face. Shorn by injury of at least their first choice hooker (and possibly the second), there will also be anxious waits on the fitness of other key forwards Dave Attwood & Francois Louw. Critics would say that Bath have plateaued of late, struggling to dispatch relegation fodder Worcester and 7^th placed Wasps, drawing with Northampton. That assessment would be unkind. Friday’s contest was brutally intense and physical, with scores swapping like two heavyweights trading blows in the early rounds. A heroic forward effort –initially defensive and then to gain the edge, was hampered by the loss of 2 hookers in quick succession. Cue the latest forward hero, Nathan Catt, who put in a most respectable shift as makeshift 2. Bath’s defence was breached only twice – the first time when Batty was having extended treatment and the second when a Maradona style forward knock down was detected, so the try was ruled out. Ultimately the draw was decided by some close penalty calls – and some that were not given. This is not the time to revisit the arguments about Mr Carley’s handling of the match, but the balance of scores shows how close Bath came to beating the most improved of last season’s Top 4.

Quins pose threats through the whole fifteen. The experienced core are backed up by a group of adventurous young Turks, plus several Premiership veterans, including hooker Dave Ward, enjoying a stellar season. In their last home game they beat Leicester, so will feel they can do the same to Bath, with their high tempo and accurate offloads. For Bath defence, a point of pride last season, will be key. Allowing Quins space will only encourage the continuity on which they thrive. Expect Bath to play for territory and possession, keep it tight and force opposition mistakes. Scores will come from pressure and Bath have the game to expand and go for tries if a points or possession gap starts to open in their favour. If Francois Louw is fit, as rumoured, there could not be a better game for him to return. He, & his backrow mates, plus fringe defence at the breakdown can do much to frustrate Quins.

With so much to play for, and injuries to key players on both sides, the result is a close call. Bath can do it, but the margin is likely to be tight. 3 points will be enough and that is what I will go for.

Possible Teams:

Bath

James, Guinazu, Wilson, Hooper, Attwood,Fearns , Louw, Houston, Young, Ford, Rokoduguni, Eastmond, Joseph, Watson, Abendanon
Bench: Catt, Dunn, Perenise, Day, Mercer, Stringer, Henson, Eastmond

Quins

Evans, Care; Marler, Ward, Sinckler, Matthews, Kennedy, Wallace, Robshaw, Easter. Care, Evans, Monye, Turner-Hall, Molenaar, Williams, Brown

Bench:Lambert, Buchanan, Doran-Jones,Fa'asava, Guest,  Dickson, Botica, Lindsay-Hague