Western Showdown: Bath v Exeter

One down, one to go. Having won at Kingsholm, Bath must now host Exeter Chiefs for the second West Country derby in 7 days. This was to have been a match to decide second place in the Premiership table, but the two clubs fortunes diverged last weekend. While Bath won comfortably enough in the end, Exeter had to endure frustration at Salford, losing to Sale and losing ground in league points on their West Country rivals. Now only a 4 try Chiefs win in which Bath collect no league points will change the relative table positions. Exeter’s loss to Sale came from three sources: bested at the set piece, poor discipline and Danny Cipriani. Rob Baxter will be working this week to put all 3 right – if you substitute Ford for Cipriani, it is possible to foresee the likely game plan. This derby will not lack for spice or intensity and while there may be more seasonal goodwill than in front of the Shed, this could be the more dangerous encounter of the two.

Exeter’s scrum is not often bettered. Indeed, in their AP match at The Rec last year, they first forced a stalemate and then a penalty at the first scrum. Baxter and his coaching team can be relied upon to prepare his side to blunt Bath’s hopes of superiority at this phase. To improve discipline they will work to be the team in possession, so reducing their risks at the breakdown. They are also likely to approach the game, if dry, as a spring fixture: maximising their multi-phase offloading game to keep the ball away from contact. Lastly, the plan for Ford (Cipriani) will be to get in his face, deny him space and time and, using their large and abrasive back row, drive into him to pin him into rucks and mauls to neutralise his control of the match.

Exeter’s high tempo game has served them well this season, so it is likely that Bath will have to spend large parts of the game defending, as they did at Kingsholm. Chiefs danger men are their back row (probable selection Ewers, Waldrom & White), Henry Slade in the centre and wing Jack Nowell. Waldrom seems to have added both pace and dexterity to his game since moving from Tigers. If he gets a head of steam up, the other carriers in the Devonian pack will be quick to support him. If they stay true to form, Exeter are likely to kick sparingly, denying Bath their first point of counter attack.

To defeat this approach Bath will need the full game focus and discipline which undid the Cherry & Whites last weekend. They will look for a forward edge, whether through scrummage or maul and, at least initially, will probably kick tactically to make the Chiefs run from deep into an aggressive defence. If that strategy works, penalties should follow, offering chance of points and further territorial pressure. Since losing to Exeter in the LV in early November, Bath have enjoyed a 6 game winning streak both at home and in Europe, coping well with international absences and picking up 2 try bonus points. The heroes in this period have included the reserve front row, Chris Cook and Matt Banahan as well as all the loose forwards who have played. Strength in depth is no longer a cliché, but a reality and how wisely the coaches use the bench may well dictate the outcome of this game. Bath have the firepower in all areas and I expect them to prevail, but Exeter have got something from every AP game this season- Bath will need to be at the very top of their game to deny the visitors a losing bonus point.

Thought for the match: 27 December is the third day of Christmas. “Three French Hens” sounds a viable name for a Chief of the plains: but which one?

Merry Christmas to all COML readers and visitors from other boards!

Possible Bath team:
Auterac, Webber, Wilson, Hooper, Day, Fa’osiliva, Louw, Houston. Cook, Ford. Banahan, Eastmond, Joseph, Rokoduguni, Watson.
Bench: James, Batty, Thomas, Garvey, Burgess. Stringer, Devoto, Agulla,

Exeter:
Moon, Cowan-Dickie, Low, Mumm, Welsh, Ewers, White, Waldrom. Chudley, Steenson. Nowell, Slade, Whitton, Jess. Dollman

Bench: Brown, Bateman, Davies, Caldwell, Johnson, Lewis, Sweeney, Hill