Playoff Predictions
Saracens: double?
By P G Tips
May 16 2016
Bath’s season has been over for a week or more and this weekend brings the AP Playoffs. With the news of Mike Ford’s departure many of the Rec faithful will feel that other clubs games are a sideshow. So what on earth have the playoffs to do with us? Plenty: · The performance of the playoff contenders should show us what to aspire to · They show us who to beat to reach that level next season · Starved of club rugby of our own they give us 2 more weeks of the game before the summer break · Opportunities for schadenfreude and “I told you so’s” if our bête noir’s fail So, Bath involvement or not, it is tempting to assess the chances of this year’s four contenders. Here goes.
Saracens v Leicester
The Bosses
Two pragmatists, focused on their own clubs method and performances, unabashed at criticism of their team as long as they win. McCall, dour and disciplined, Cockerill spikey and occasionally sour, both have built enduring winning squads on the basics: risk averse possession and defence rugby. Both have admitted though that more can be brought to the field and have broadened their vision this year. Of the two it seems Leicester’s conversion to a wide passing strike runner game is the more romantic, but Saracens more measured evolution has gleaned more tries.
The Brawn
Traditionally the Tigers have based their game on a dominant pack. In recent seasons Saracens have sought to steal that mantle, with the added factor of the forwards role in their voracious “wolf pack” defence. So effective is that combination that they rarely looked troubled in last week’s European final, even with less than half the possession and territory. Their lineout is a well-oiled machine, based on the most complete club locking pairing since Johnson and Kay and their driving game with the Vunipolas to the fore usually ensures territorial dominance and front foot ball. It will be quite a day for collisions, but the black and red should have the edge up front.
The Backs
At full strength Leicester would seem to have the edge. Two Lions, the two South Sea juggernauts Goneva and Veianu, this season’s revelation Peter Betham and strength in depth. However, first choice standoff Freddie Burns is out until next season and Manu Tuilagi, if fit, is short of match practice. Saracens can field the power of the collective. Well drilled, patient and steady. They strike when they are ready and, occasionally to deadly effect when the opposition are caught off guard. Their counter attack has been their biggest improvement this year and in Ashton and Wyles they have the deadly finishers to nail half chances.
Likely outcome
Tigers have the playoff pedigree of the decade – literally, having made all the last ten. The city of Leicester is riding a wave of success, but it is hard to see beyond a Saracens win. as they seek a European and domestic double The pack, the wolfpack defence, Farrell and the creativity of Goode should see them home.
Exeter v Wasps
The Bosses
Two more plain speakers, but both popular with the press and wider public. Both are on the coach of the year shortlist (alongside McCall), both have created teams with a real balance between strong basics and a high tempo, flowing ball-in-hand game. Both Baxter and Young are being spoken of as future international coaches. Both dismiss the idea, at least for now –to “the future”. They intend to build enduring style and legacy and so far, are succeeding. Either team can count on a lot of neutral support in the final.
The Brawn
A fascinating match up: power, pace, penetration, pugnacity on both sides. Wasps have two of the most punishing carriers and tacklers in the Premiership in Johnson and Hughes. Their front row is probably the most improved of the season and in George Smith they possess one of the poachers of the decade, whose breakdown skills are rubbing off on team mates Haskell and Young junior. Chiefs have their own bruising carriers in Waldrom and Ewers, a feared lineout-based driving maul, a mighty scrum and very under rated lineout. Wasps managed to neuter the driving maul in their last encounter, so the edge in this battle could come down to who can play the best mix of pace and accurate execution.
The Backs
Pundits purr about some of the Wasps stars- Wade, Halai, Daly, Piutau and the two marauding scrum halves, Simpson and Robson. Backing these up is a crew of steady “unsung heroes” like Gopperth, Jackson, Jacobs. Exeter may have fewer eye catchers, although in Jack Nowell they boast one of the hardest back three players to defend in the whole competition. His value to the Chiefs, in seeking, finding and creating space, is much greater than his contribution in tries scored. Henry Slade inside him is one of the most gifted backs in the Premiership, now back to full fitness after a long layoff. The supporting cast meshes comfortably into multi-layered attack, from controlling halfbacks Chudley and Steenson to finishers like Dollman, Whitten or Woodburn. The meeting of these two sets of backs is one to savour.
Likely outcome
The clash of the Premiership’s two top try scoring sides could be a humdinger. Doubtless that is what the neutrals will hope for. The two met quite recently and Wasps will have done their homework, so the game may turn out to be tense, defensive and collision bound. Either way it is too close to call.
So-Saracens to march on to Twickenham: but who will meet them?
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2016:08:31:20:28:25 by Stuart Anderton.
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