Test in the West

Exeter this Sunday could pose the most significant test of Bath' Premiership season to date. Of course this is a West Country derby, now more anticipated by many than the more traditional and bitter rivalry with Gloucester. It may also prove a defining weekend for Premiership fortunes in the lead up to Christmas. Two league positions and 7 points separate the clubs and Bath will want to preserve their top 4 status.  Leicester look likely losers on Saturday at Allianz Park, as do Newcastle at Wasps. An away win for Bath would therefore open up a comfortable gap between the leading 3 teams and chasing pack before the Autumn International window. It is also important for Bath to get a first win of the season against a title contender: most of the other victories have been over lowly or mid table teams. Add in the small matter of George Ford’s future. Whatever the truth in recent rumours, the outcome is unlikely to be clear in the next few weeks. A good win at Sandy Park would be a real boost for morale and an indicator of squad solidarity in the face of distraction. So, what can we expect?  

Exeter are closely tracking the leaders, but by recent standards have not made as strong a start as their fans would like.. They have won twice, against Quins and basement Bristol and drawn with Gloucester. There is no shame in losing to Saracens or Wasps, but they will be disappointed not to have come away from Franklin’s gardens with a win, having led Saints 13-0 after 12 minutes.  Their stubborn determination is still evident, as in some matches is the fluency of recent years: a third of their points have come from bonus points. Some Sandy Park fans are openly asking if Rob Baxter is under pressure, if he has lost his touch. While autumn 2016 has not begun for Exeter with the bang that 2015 did, this frustration looks as much a symptom of Chiefs’ fans growing expectations as a real decline in form. Chiefs are not without problems, undoubtedly missing Ewers & Armand from the back row, leaving their principal ball carrier Waldrom easy to isolate by defences. The loss of Cowan-Dickie only adds to that issue. The highly talented Henry Slade has failed to settle at fly half, forcing a rethink of the midfield layout and strategy. Perhaps the midfield embarrassment of riches is proving a mixed blessing?

These are more reasons for home fans to fret than for the visitors to count any scalps. Baxter and his coaching staff have made a speciality of getting the best from players undervalued at other clubs. Salvi, Waldrom, Parling and Steenson are all cases in point, while former Bath boys Devoto and Woodburn are thriving in the Devonian backline. Chiefs have just been forged in fire in tough European encounters with Clermont and Ulster; they will be keen to get their Premiership show back on the road with a win. With home advantage and passionate support, they will expect to do just that.

Some Bath fans have expressed doubts about their team as well. It is too early to say that the honeymoon is over for Blackadder, but for some it has lost it’s early ardour. Too many scrum penalties, too much kicking and too many handling errors are the key gripes. Too often Bath are second best in possession and gain little penetration. A fully fit squad should help solve those woes and there is much to be said for winning 5 out of 6, even if the form is short of expectation.

There is good news for Bath on the injury front. Batty, Thomas, Attwood, Ellis, Fotuali’i and Bowden are all back in training and consideration for selection. All are welcome returns. Perhaps the most vital is Fotuali’i, whose service and game management allow George Ford to play with the freedom only fitfully seen at the Rec last season. Dave Attwood could also be a significant boost: injuries to Itoje and Kruis offering him hope of forcing a way back into Eddie Jones’ England squad. In other western derbies this term Bath have shown that persistence pays off, however late in the day. The game plan is likely to stay the same: heavy emphasis on territory and defence, with attack reserved for the opposition half and clean turnover ball. Will it be enough to win in the hostile atmosphere of a thousand of chanting braves? We will know by teatime on Sunday, but it should be close!

Possible Teams:

Bath:
Auterac, Batty, Thomas, Attwood, Charteris, Garvey, G Mercer, Z Mercer. Fotuali’i, Ford.  Rokodoguni, Banahan, Joseph, Brew. Homer

Replacements: Lahiff, Dunn, Palma –Newport, Ewels, Ellis. Cook, Priestland, Williams.

Exeter:
Moon, Yeandle , Low, Lees, Parling, Dennis, Salvi, Waldrom. Chudley, Steenson. Short, Devoto, Slade, Woodburn. Turner.

Replacements: Hepburn, Innard, Francis, Welch, Horstmann, Lewis, Hill, Whitton