Scarlet Fever?

Will it be “Scarlet fever” when Bath visit Llanelli in the LV Cup this Friday? The phrase was used by Max Boyce to excuse mass absenteeism in Llanelli the morning after the club’s most famous victory just over 44 years ago. On that great occasion, “the air was full of singing and I saw a grown man cry. Not because we’d won, but because the pubs ran dry!” This meeting will not match that famous occasion though. “Old Rivals Collide” is the Scarlets strapline for the latest battle between two clubs who have traditionally scrapped over a rag doll, but whoever wins the result will not echo around the world as Llanellis’ victory over the 1972 All Blacks did. An LV Cup game, played within the Autumn International window robs both sides of their international squad members and gives DORs the chance to rotate and rest overworked first choice players. Is the competition therefore of “low value” as some wags would have it? The tournament may have a puzzling structure and lack the star names of European or Premiership competition, but where old rivalries are rekindled, as last week showed, results matter: to team and supporters. So, who will be singing and drinking the pubs dry at 9 PM on Friday?

Scarlets may not have the clout that saw off the All Blacks all those years ago, but they have been consistent in Wales and the Pro 12 for some years. Currently lying 6^th in the table, their average finish in the past 6 seasons is 5^th, usually behind Ospreys. This season they have notable wins already against Connacht and Glasgow, the latter their 5^th consecutive Pro 12 win. They are in the European Champions Cup where they have been too strong for Sale, but succumbed to Saracens in north London. As their ECC pool also contains Toulouse they may feel that their best chance of silverware lies in the LV. Scarlets famously snatched victory from Bath in the semi final of an earlier Anglo Welsh Cup, at the Millennium Stadium in 2006, overturning a 13 point half time Bath lead to prevail by a point. Since then the rag doll has been the preserve of Bath –won 5 times, mostly in pre season friendlies.

Scarlets names to look out for are Werner Kruger, Aaron Shingler and John Barclay up front, while behind the scrum Canadian flyer DTH van Der Merwe and the highly promising Rhys Patchell have the most representative experience and of course there is Bath discard Jonathan Evans at scrum half. Who Bath will select depends on Todd Blackadder’s mindset. He was evidently pleased with the spirit and fightback of Bath’s last 20 against Tigers last week, but was critical of his side’s breakdown work and exit strategy. He may reflect that a little more experience in the starting lineup could have brought another win. With a return to Premiership action due in a week’s time, will he want to keep some first choices match sharp? I expect changes will be minimal, but we may see more of the fast developing Tom Ellis as well as another start for the rising star of Zach Mercer. Perhaps Robbie Fruean, newly arrived may be considered ready for a cameo from the bench?

Whoever plays, Bath have truly gelled as a squad this season: their spirit and faith in each other is not easily quenched. A trip to Parc y Scarlets will not be for the faint hearted, but they will travel in hope. We wait to see where the singing will be loudest and pubs driest late on Friday.

Possible Bath Team: Obano, Van Vuuren, Knight, Ellis, Stooke, Douglas, G Mercer (Capt.), Z Mercer. Homer, Priestland. Williams, Bowden, Brew, Wilson. Atkins.

Replacements: Lahiff, Dunn, Palma-Newport. Humfrey, Garvey, Allinson, Clark,Fruean.