RUSHING BACK: 2021 PREMIERSHIP PREVIEW
Ellis: dependable
By PG Tips
November 3 2020
With the 2020 season only just finished, the 2021 campaign follows hot on its heels. Fixtures begin in under three weeks, alongside the Autumn Nations Cup, which will strip several clubs of their leading players, just when coaches want to be establishing their first -choice selections and laying down statements of intent. Five clubs stood apart at the end of last season and look likely favourites to shine in the months to come. So- which of them will triumph and how will Bath fare?
For the first time in a decade Saracens are not among “the usual suspects”, leading to predictions of an Exeter dynasty to take their place. Certainly the Devonians’ pedigree of the past 5 seasons suggests they have the foundation, class and ambition to kick on from their greatest year ever. However, the final table shows four other clubs only one or two wins behind them. Of those, Bristol and Sale had been contenders throughout, while Wasps and Bath both made late runs. As the second half of last season showed, the change in emphasis on how the breakdown is refereed (which played a major part in Wasps’ rise) looks likely to exert a major influence on the competition.
Assuming the pandemic permits a completed season, it is hard to see beyond Exeter as table leaders once again. They have one of the largest squads with enviable strength in depth, an admirable squad culture and the ability to switch from brutalism to brio as the situation demands. Rob Baxter is an astute DOR, backed up by clever and innovative coaches so it will be interesting to see how they adapt, not just to new law interpretations, but also their new found status. Their achilles heels could well be weight of expectation and the legality of their rucking game, which still involves more prone bodies than swift turnover. Baxter and Co are likely to have tweaked their breakdown play by the restart, so the stage seems set fair for a special few seasons.
Behind them, Wasps are no longer the “surprise package”. Their ambitious style of play pleased pundits and neutrals alike and will be well known to defensive coaches, but how easy will it be to nullify? In the two Willises, Young and Shields they have 4 highly effective loose forwards, while Launchbury and Rowlands are also adept turnover merchants and hookers Taylor and Barbeary are smart poachers and support runners. Behind the scrum much depends on the form of Robson and Gopperth. The scrum half could well be missing on international duty for parts of the season, while Gopperth at 37 will have to manage his workload carefully. In the absence of those two, does Umaga have the experience to manage a game unaided? With Lee Blackett confounding those who insist only coaches of long experience at the highest level can succeed, they should once again be Top 4 contenders, but they face a stern challenge from Bristol, Bath and Sale.
Bristol are likely to be the least affected by international demands, although loanees from Saracens Earl and Malins – both standout players in recent matches- are in England’s Autumn Nations Cup squad, while Fiji may claim Radradra and Wales Sheedy. After a cracking start to last season Bristol found the going a bit tougher in the final third, but still won the European Challenge Cup, their first silverware since 1983. Bouyed with that success, expect Bristol to continue with the flowing, all action style that took Connacht to their first Pro 14 title. Bristol’s owner Stephen Lansdown has made no secret of his desire to “win trophies and dominate in Europe.” Lam will need to do some work on defence if Bristol are to achieve those goals but is unlikely to compromise the attack which brought them four tries in their semi -final against Wasps. Another team who will probably make the Top 4 again.
Which brings us to Bath. Stuart Hooper may not have answered all his critics, but there is no denying the improvement shown in the last nine regular league fixtures. Winning seven and drawing one of those, collecting six try bonus points and a losing bonus point are stats that speak for themselves. Unfortunately other stats are less complimentary. Bath earned the fewest try bonus points of the top 4, had the weakest points and try differences and were a full 120 points behind Exeter, despite winning almost as many matches. The nail-biting struggle to make the Top 4 (aided by a default on the part of Sale) was largely down to the lack of early season tries and bonus points. The home defeat by Wasps, from a strong early position, exposed an inability to change plans in the face of changing circumstance and an over reliance on forward power. That power served the club well in most other fixtures, but on its own will probably not be enough to topple Exeter -or again Wasps. There were signs of a more expansive game in the final fixtures, although much of the back play was fitful and reliant on individual moments of magic. Having established the platform, it is to be hoped that Hooper and his team will be preparing for more fluid attack from the backline. The lack of a second specialist fly half is quoted by some as the reason for Bath’s conservatism in attack. Could there be yet one more twist in off season recruitment, a rumoured 10 coming in from the southern hemisphere? This close to the season start, with no announcement, it seems unlikely. While Matavesi, Redpath and De Glanville can all do a job at pivot, this should be the season to start Orlando Bailey in some of the home matches.
With five forwards in recent England squads and dependable backups in Boyce, Walker, Stooke, Bayliss, Mercer, Ellis and Reid, Bath should win enough possession to dominate opponents. They may well lose Obano, Dunn, Stuart, Ewels and Underhill to England so the understudies will earn their keep (and hopefully Eddie Jones will rotate his squad to test out his permutations). Behind the scrum Bath’s wealth of talent deserves more expression. Here, Ben Spence as much as any flyhalf, can inject fluidity with his decision making and speed of pass. Even while risking the loss of Watson, Joseph and Cokanasiga, Bath have McConnochie (in fiery form in October), Rokodoguni and Hamer-Webb to threaten on the outside. Perhaps the most exciting of all prospects though, is Tom de Glanville, if he can overcome the embarrassment of his Barbarians antics. I expect Bath to improve on last season and once again make the Top 4, this time without needing default from a rival. In getting there it would be good to see a few more backline tries.
Finally Sale, last season’s unlucky and frustrated fifth team. Steve Diamond has built their style on defence and South African brute force. Sale conceded fewest points (375) and tries (38) in the entire Premiership, although Bath breached their line 4 times at the AJ Bell. They also had the second highest points difference, better than Wasps and Bristol- testament to very reliable goal kicking. Manu Tuilagi, their latest recruit to a physical midfield, is out for 6 months, which may put a strain on their resources, with only 12 senior backs to call on. While they will be hard to beat and their forwards combative as ever, they are the side who will have most to do to make Top 4, from our leading five contenders.
And what of the rest? Can Northampton find the edge and zip that saw them riding high early last campaign? Will Harlequins find the consistency to project their talented players into Eddie Jones’ field of view? I suspect that for either to be realistic Top 4 contenders will need another season. Leicester, sadly, are very much the fallen giant, with Steve Borthwick acknowledging how much work is needed to reverse their decline.
So, the 4 clubs who topped the table on 5 October to repeat the trick in 2021, but in what order? It would be a brave man who would bet against Exeter taking first place. Behind them there will be an almighty scramble for the next three positions. I expect a continuation of Bath’s improvement, plus the development of more subtlety and sophistication in attack. For that reason I will stick my neck out and opt for:
2 Wasps
3 Bath
4 Bristol
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020:11:11:08:49:54 by P G Tips.
1) Exeter
2) Bristol
4) Wasps
3) Sale
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
But I really don't see us challenging top 4, when our 5 forwards and 3 backs in the 35-man, AIs England squad compares to:
Exeter: 2 forwards, 1 back
Bristol: 2 forwards, 1 back
Wasps: 2 forwards, 2 backs (and they can call on Vellacott at 9, Sopoaga or Gopperth at 10)
Sale: 1 forward, 0 backs (and they literally have a clone of their single England player!)
However .... will players not involved in England match-days be allowed back to their Clubs? Or do they have to remain in some sort of biosecure situation?
And, will Eddie reformulate the squad prior to the Nations Cup? Currently, Ford and Nowell aren't listed in the 35-man squad. Still the possibility that Spencer could get called up too.
Quote:Optimist
If Heinz is ruled out by injury, I wouldn't be surprised if he calls up Spencer. Just so long as the journalists keep quiet about Spencer in the mean time, and bang on about Harry Randall's credentials.
Every time a journalist mentions his name its another nail in his coffin
Quote:Optimist
I'm thinking of setting up a PR consultancy for aspiring England players. The strategy will consist of keeping their name out of the press, and arranging gushing profiles of their rivals. Commission basis only - 10% of your England match fee.
If you had set it up 10 years ago Cipriani may have had shedload of caps (maybe not)
Quote:Optimist
If Heinz is ruled out by injury, I wouldn't be surprised if he calls up Spencer. Just so long as the journalists keep quiet about Spencer in the mean time, and bang on about Harry Randall's credentials.
Can you really see Eddie going with Randall, all out attacking 9 and all that?
Quote:shipwreckedQuote:Optimist
If Heinz is ruled out by injury, I wouldn't be surprised if he calls up Spencer. Just so long as the journalists keep quiet about Spencer in the mean time, and bang on about Harry Randall's credentials.
Can you really see Eddie going with Randall, all out attacking 9 and all that?
My sarcasm is getting taken way too seriously currently!
(or rather they prefer to play the percentages)
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2020:11:03:14:33:58 by BathMatt53.
PG
Quote:OptimistQuote:shipwreckedQuote:Optimist
If Heinz is ruled out by injury, I wouldn't be surprised if he calls up Spencer. Just so long as the journalists keep quiet about Spencer in the mean time, and bang on about Harry Randall's credentials.
Can you really see Eddie going with Randall, all out attacking 9 and all that?
My sarcasm is getting taken way too seriously currently!
Problem is Opti you are the oracle when it comes to Eddie, we hang on every word and search every morning to check if your Twitter and Insta accounts are set up yet only to collapse in a heap when "content not found" comes up. You may need to re-engage with your fan base.
Quote:shipwrecked
you are the oracle when it comes to Eddie....we hang on every word
Not everyone though, Shipwrecked. Sadly, not everyone. I know BO for example, simply will not tolerate posters who go on about a single subject repeatedly. So, I'm not going to fall for this blatant flattery and attempt to draw me into that trap, lest I end up another prophet without honour.
Anyway ... back to Eddie Jones ...
Adopted player 2019/20 Will Chudley. Weird split household co-parented
player 2020 Josh Matavesi
Edited now.
PG
If I am honest based on last seasons performances and the most recent internationals I am not sure JJ or TF are deserving of their places in their respective nations based on form?? You could also add to that many other teams such as Exeter, Wasps, Sale find their players are not rewarded for their outstanding efforts.
The 10 issue is completely different and I am not going to harp on about this other than to say at anytime we could lose Rhys at any point which has been the case since Freddie left the club.
The club/management have to make a decision whether to promote Bailey and give the lad a chance or achieve something they have failed to do for the past 2 /3 seasons which is attract a quality 10 from elsewhere - Maybe they have who knows.
Quote:Ali1969
I am not sure JJ or TF are deserving of their places in their respective nations based on form??
I think that TF has been pretty good since the restart, for club and country. With Ross Moriarty injured there seems to be a dearth of really good Wales qualified 8s at the moment who could compete with TF for the place?
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:Ali1969
The issue of our players being absent for international periods is not one that has just crept up on us - this issue has manifested itself for the past I don't know how many seasons and on the whole it usually and not surprisingly coincides with a slump of form and defeats. I think Todd Blackadder was his usual honest self in stating that is where our challenge for honours is usually curtailed.
If I am honest based on last seasons performances and the most recent internationals I am not sure JJ or TF are deserving of their places in their respective nations based on form?? You could also add to that many other teams such as Exeter, Wasps, Sale find their players are not rewarded for their outstanding efforts.
The 10 issue is completely different and I am not going to harp on about this other than to say at anytime we could lose Rhys at any point which has been the case since Freddie left the club.
The club/management have to make a decision whether to promote Bailey and give the lad a chance or achieve something they have failed to do for the past 2 /3 seasons which is attract a quality 10 from elsewhere - Maybe they have who knows.
I agree with JJ however have to disagree about TF who I think has played really well since the restart. Was doing a lot more donkey work instead of his previous hanging around out wide where he would catch the eye more.
As for 10, I like Rhys but do worry if he gets injured because Josh M isn’t a good enough replacement, and have not seen enough of Bailey to comment on his credentials. There is a huge difference between the level he has been playing and the first team.
I have been saying to mates for a while, but would love someone like Reece Hodge to come in at 10. A big unit with huge boot who is class all the way across the back line. Unfortunately I doubt he will give up on his international career for us, but I can but dream.
If we were going to play Bailey you would have expected him to have been given some kind of game/exposure time towards the end of last season which we didn't see other than a run on in a game well and truly won and his presence in that game was out of sheer desperation due to injuries and unavailability's - so I guess that tells you where the coaches see his progression at currently.
What we did learn was that Josh M is a good ball player and someone who plays with a huge smile on his face which I personally love - but what he is not is a 10 who commands and pushes a team around the field for position or controls the game and his place kicking well that we won't talk about. There is also a question around his lack of pace - indeed he was left for dead for pace the one that springs to mind was in the Semi-Final against Chiefs.
Rhys cannot go on forever - neither can he be expected to start of play in every Premiership/European game. I cannot see a quality 10 coming in now at such a late stage and I take it we have not signed the Argentinian lad as previously reported - so we will be starting with RP, JM and OB - with only one of those regularly having played 10 at this level consistently.
I am sure given Nathan Catt's retirement the club is looking to strengthen in the Prop department - Just wish Eddie Jones would not empty our front 5 department and then leave the majority in the cold unavailable for club selection.
The 10 situation what do we think - Ambitious?? or foolish??
Sure - but I'd refer you back to the Adam Hastings example. 6 months in the life of an 18/19 year-old who moves from being a school-boy to being a full time professional athlete is exponential in a way that no other 6-month period in their playing-life before or after will be.
Quote:Ali1969
If we were going to play Bailey you would have expected him to have been given some kind of game/exposure time towards the end of last season which we didn't see other than a run on in a game well and truly won and his presence in that game was out of sheer desperation due to injuries and unavailability's - so I guess that tells you where the coaches see his progression at currently.
Not sure that follows, the end of last season we were genuinely in the hunt. You don't throw a young talent into that cauldron do you? He may have been scalded for life.
We need a 10 desperately but not just any 10. I think Bailey will get game time.
Quote:Ali1969
Shipwrecked - Fair point and there is a morale and professional responsibility to protect players, particularly young players - however if Bailey as seen as a serious replacement for RP or a future 1st choice 10 then we have a duty to develop him - I believe Bailey is now 19 years old and given how other clubs have progressed players of a similar age into senior rugby the question is why we have not done the same with Bailey?? - especially given our current lack of resource in his playing position - you would expect him to be chomping at the bit - a real opportunity for a young player to establish himself in the professional game - so I expect it is more down to the coaches.
I agree with that Orlando Bailey does need games now given how Umaga, Vunipola and Smith, have developed. Serious questions to be asked if that doesn't happen.
The whole backs set up needs to get better, I'm hoping that is this season's goal for Hooper, I'd like to see that development in good hands though. Are those hands Dempsey's I wonder?
Quote:shipwrecked
...given how Umaga, Vunipola and Smith, have developed. Serious questions to be asked if that doesn't happen...
I just don't understand this assumption that all 19-year olds are exactly the same and should be treated the same.
Quote:OptimistQuote:shipwrecked
...given how Umaga, Vunipola and Smith, have developed. Serious questions to be asked if that doesn't happen...
I just don't understand this assumption that all 19-year olds are exactly the same and should be treated the same.
Umaga in 22 now and went to Leeds and then Auckland on loan last year (when 21), he just looks younger. Baby faced Joe Simmons is 24 next month!
Manu V and (the obvious one Smith) have done well from a very early age, as did George F of course. Having seen a bit of Bailey (albeit at school rugby) and stood near him fairly recently I know that he has good skills and also is a big lad. I wouldn't worry at all about him if he got some opportunities this season tbh.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:OptimistQuote:shipwrecked
...given how Umaga, Vunipola and Smith, have developed. Serious questions to be asked if that doesn't happen...
I just don't understand this assumption that all 19-year olds are exactly the same and should be treated the same.
They need to be given a chance though Opti, what are you saying, he is fragile? We don't know unless he gets some game time. Thats the point being made here.
Quote:shipwreckedQuote:OptimistQuote:shipwrecked
...given how Umaga, Vunipola and Smith, have developed. Serious questions to be asked if that doesn't happen...
I just don't understand this assumption that all 19-year olds are exactly the same and should be treated the same.
They need to be given a chance though Opti, what are you saying, he is fragile? We don't know unless he gets some game time. Thats the point being made here.
What I'm saying is this.
We all have opinions on coaches, players, matches .... that we have seen. We all pontificate on which player we would pick for Bath/England etc, pretending we know as much or more as full-time professional coaches .... based on what we've seen.
But none of us has seen Bailey play professional rugby (other than above-mentioned 20 minutes). There is literally no evidence on which to base an opinion as to whether he is 'fragile', 'ready', 'the same as Umaga/Smith etc'.
Saying 'we don't know unless he gets some game time' is entirely pointless. Players don't get selected in order to demonstrate to fans whether that player is ready or not. In this instance, I just don't see that there is any option other than to accept that the coaches know things that we don't know.
In every other instance, of course, we all know infinitely more than Eddie Jones, Stuart Hooper and God combined.
Quote:Optimist
Saying 'we don't know unless he gets some game time' is entirely pointless. Players don't get selected in order to demonstrate to fans whether that player is ready or not. In this instance, I just don't see that there is any option other than to accept that the coaches know things that we don't know.
If that were the case, that the coaches are holding him back for a reason, then Bath would have gone for a stop gap 10 surely.
As Ali says you don't start a season with one seasoned veteran 10 and a makeshift centre as your only options.
Bailey has to get some game time. Last season wasn't right but now is. If he doesn't get on the pitch what is he doing there and why are the club playing 'Russian roulette' at fly half?
I watched those 20 minutes with interest, I didn't get the impression he was intimidated in any way and as Matt says, he certainly isn't bullied physically.
The very fact that we have no news of a new 10 points to his limited inclusion. It would be late to integrate a new 10 now with it so close to the season commencement. I think Bailey will be fine.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
I personally am not aware of any statement made by any coaches suggesting that Orlando Bailey is being offered or has signed a senior contract with Bath FC.
Only time will tell whether he will be given game time - but the question is when in the modern game and in the current climate do we get a dead rubber to try players out? There is a hell of a difference between running plays against your mates on a training ground than getting mullered by Jerome Kaino or Joe Launchbury.
Personally I hope the coaches give him a chance and see what he is made of and I am confident given our options he will be.
Him alongside beno, boyce and vaughan is a good stock of looseheads.
On bailey it feels a slightly pointless debate in a way as he is our only other 10 with rhys so will be in the 23 quite often realistically and will get game time. The rights and wrongs of that can be debated endlessly but assume hoops and hatley are relatively comfortable with it.
As has been said he is 19 now and physically a unit....training with the first team for c4 months unlike most players fresh out of school as you hit the new season.
I still wonder if there was anything in the miotti rumour and whether that could still happen. Not sure why they wouldn't announce it other than i assume he will be tied up with Argentina for a while anyway. Hopeless optimism on my part i think.
My bigger concern is having potentially 9 away on international duty. Can players move between bubbles if not needed in the 23 if tested? Would be a bit soul destroying to have likes of beno waiting as 4th choice for england and unable to play for us!
Can't seem to find an answer to this anywhere. Pretty huge issue for us, and the only team with comparable numbers in the squad is Saracens.
Quote:Optimist
'Can players move between bubbles if not needed in the 23'
Can't seem to find an answer to this anywhere. Pretty huge issue for us, and the only team with comparable numbers in the squad is Saracens.
Quite. And restart period we saw v few injuries which meant you could rotate and it was a bit of a virtuous circle.
Start the season missing loads of players and you having to field players carrying knocks, put more game time into players etc and you could see the opposite.
Frustrating as feels we have v few nailed on england players but a huge number of fringe players who will bench/be matchday cover ....or not even that..
Possible that the only one we have is currently injured. Even Sam U is facing intense competition for starting place, and I can't see JJ starting when everyone's fit.
Weirdly, it's quite feasible that we could supply the entire forwards bench for England: Obano, Dunn, Stuart, Ewels, Underhill
Exeter
Wasps
Bristol
Bath
[www.bbc.co.uk]
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
[www.northamptonsaints.co.uk]
[www.newcastlefalcons.co.uk]
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Obano, Walker, Thomas
Stooke, McNally
Ellis, Mercer, Reid
Spencer, Bailey
Redpath, de Glanville
Cokanasiga, McConnoghie, Roko
Stooke, McNally
Ellis, Bayliss, Williams
Spencer, Rhys
Matavesi, Wright (or Clark)
McConnochie , de Glanville , Roko
I see that Newcastle have a load of guys injured. Not sure how they got injured but that's not great for them in what will be a very tough season already. I think that the Prem is a better league with a team from the North East in it personally.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Or is the breakdown going to do its usual thing of changing, but then not changing, and then changing subtly, differently, in another unanticipated way, as refs forget to apply the directive that nobody quite knew what it was trying to achieve in the first place, and apply some other nuance that makes somebody else king of the jackal?
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]