SEASON PREVIEW PART TWO. THE CHALLENGERS
Cipriani: expectation
By PG Tips
September 6 2021
As always, clubs that starred last season will be expected to lead the way in the campaign to come. This season could be different though. Firstly the tournament grows more competitive each year, as unfancied Newcastle, London Irish and Worcester all showed last year. Each had their moments against supposedly “bigger” clubs, Exeter, Bristol, Wasps, Sale and Bath all suffering upsets or shocks. Secondly, the reduction in salary cap should be a leveller in playing resources and squad depth. So, what of the chances of the “challengers”?
Leicester Tigers only escaped relegation two seasons ago through Saracens’ misdemeanours. Steve Borthwick turned them round last season, gaining a respectable 6th place. The Welford faithful will expect more though and the combination of club tradition and the Borthwick evolution should make them a tough nut to crack. Theirs is the biggest playing turnover with 10 signings, 8 academy promotions and 23 departures. Most of Borthwick’s focus is “back to basics” but he has exciting young backs to call on too like van Poortvliet, Kelly and Steward. With Ellis Genge as skipper, a core of South African forwards joined by highly promising George Martin, plus experienced inside backs Freddie Burns and Juan Pablo Socino they will be a test for anyone, especially at home. They could sneak into the playoffs. More likely they will come up just short but dent the ambitions of several rivals in the attempt.
Wasps were last season’s under achievers. Creative trendsetters in attack in 2020, they lost their way in defence last year, conceding 72 tries and gave away the 3rd highest number of penalties. They must fix both issues if they are to mount a serious challenge. Notable departures are stalwarts Will Rowlands, plus Taylor, McIntyre, Brookes, Sopoaga and De Jongh. The best of their signings are Elliott Stooke and Francois Hougaard, plus the return of Nizam Carr. Much will depend on the fitness of Joe Launchbury and Jack Willis. Can they make the playoffs? Their attacking style suggests yes, we must wait and see if they have the backline strength in depth to match their ambition.
Northampton held off the challenge of Tigers and Bath to take 5th place last season, but never really looked convincing Top 4 challengers. Under Chris Boyd they have been an enigma. At their best the combination of power, pace and precision passing is potent in attack, but they have a habit of letting games slip from their grasp as last season’s two close defeats by Bath proved. More have left Saints in the off season than joined and those are not big names. Expect a season of rebuilding, hard to beat at Franklin’s Gardens and probably a top half place, but unlikely to be serious challengers.
London Irish, Newcastle Falcons, Gloucester Rugby and Worcester Warriors propped up last season’s table. Judging by their squads, they look destined to fill the same positions in 2022. Only 3 points separated the first trio but Warriors were well adrift, saved from relegation by the expansion of the Premiership to 13 clubs this season. Warriors have the most eye-catching signings of the 4, Lions van Der Merwe and Sutherland, plus Willi Heinz and Owen Williams and they will need all four to exert a lot of influence if they are to pull themselves up the table. Gloucester will hope that Adam Hastings can fire their attack in the way that Danny Cipriani and Freddie Burns did in past seasons. Falcons, with a clutch of England summer debutants, Blamire, Davison, Chick and Radwan could be the surprise package, guided by the pragmatism of Richards and the imagination of Walder as attack coach. Could a swansong season from signing Mike Brown inspire them to climb the table? Perhaps, but I expect they must content themselves with the occasional scalp of a top contender.
So, what of Bath? Last seasons’ 7th place was a bitter disappointment, not only because hopes had been raised by a (slightly fortunate) top 4 finish in 2020, but also because quite frankly, given the quality of the squad it was a clear underachievement. Neal Hatley says the squad have “had a long hard look at the frailties from last year.” Addressing them is a priority. Good. These – principally defence and discipline, lost Bath too many games last season. The change in defensive mindset from containment to aggressive defence and winning the ball back should make a difference. It is encouraging too to hear that the training approach has changed from “attack session” or “defence session” to blended sessions of high intensity, fatigue inducing game simulation. These reflect the reality that failed attack becomes defence and also practise turning successful defence quickly into counterattack.
Bath saw almost as many cards last season as a croupier. 5 Red cards (4 for dangerous high tackles) and 10 yellows was just not good enough as Hatley admits. To challenge for honours it is imperative to keep 15 on the pitch as much as possible. Pre -season tackle training has concentrated on tackle height, body position and the “chop” tackle (effective not only in stopping the ball carrier but in improving the chance of turnover). Let’s hope these lessons have been thoroughly learned and will be applied in practice.
There is a new focus on attack too- and here new coach David Williams is key. He has led a focus on ball-in-hand training from minute one of Pre-season rather than the traditional build up through gym and other fitness sessions. He aims to keep the ball in play more to exploit the new season law changes. Happily, he wants to create a “Bath style” which many on here have been seeking and demanding for several seasons. This “winning the style game” he says, is non -negotiable, which should be music to the ears of fans frustrated with the conservative tactics and careless execution of the past two seasons.
Can the squad deliver on these ambitions? There are still concerns over experience in key positions. A fourth senior lock, a mature hooker and possibly a more experienced squad scrum half would be high on most supporters’ lists. We know that the club is looking for two players to augment the current 40, hooker and lock seemingly the priority targets. Until these are sourced Bath must work with those available, dictated by the limits of the salary cap. Gaps may have to be plugged occasionally from the Academy, so it was good to see Richards, Staddon, Doughty and Bailey get valuable first team game time in 2021.
Two new signings will carry a heavy burden of expectation. Fans will look to Danny Cipriani to produce moments of magic and ignite Bath’s backline. Jaco Coetzee could be just as significant. He has a hard act following fans favourite Zach Mercer, who seemed to bear the torch of attacking ambition on his own at times last season. Coetzee comes with a reputation for physicality, especially in the carry and should provide extra ballast and balance to Bath’s backrow options. If the first choice front five remain fit, with the backrow and backline talent Bath have, surely 2022 should see a performance improvement?
Having had my fingers burnt by last seasons predictions I will not suggest where Bath will finish. Suffice to say that I believe Leicester Tigers, Bath and Wasps to offer the most credible threats to last year’s top order. Pre -season signs and aspirations are encouraging. The talent is there and win or lose, we can hope to see an identifiable and attractive style. Will it be hope fulfilled or hope frustrated?
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021:09:14:11:05:28 by P G Tips.
Former All Black Vaea Fifita is a very good signing for Wasps to add to your list. Funnily enough I think Tigers could be a genuine "bolter" for top 4.
I wonder how Ford will work with Burns (given the history it feels a sign of Burns desperation that he's back "under" Ford) but maybe with Ford Snr out of the picture at Tigers maybe Ford Jnrs power has been balanced out a bit? Lastly will he be dropped by Jones? That feels unlikely but would make a huge difference to Tigers chances if he were available all season on the basis he doesn't exercise his break clause to go and play in France (no suggestion of that just my thoughts that he might)
Quote:OldMarovian
I know I'm not a Bathite but I really appreciate and enjoy reading peoples views on this forum.
You don't need to be OM. Visitors are welcome.
Thank you for the comments.
PG
Wasps seem... A bit disjointed to me. Not sure. Really feels like that run in 2020 was the exception.
I don't trust Saints to kick on either. Or Irish.
Weird I feel like there's a lot of mediocrity in the Prem this season. Enigma will be Sarries. But tough to look beyond Ex.
I'm interested to see hasta and a number of pundits see Chiefs as the early favourites. I think this season could be tricky for them. They're set up to play a very specific way which the Laws will make more difficult to do. Baxter is a great coach and will no doubt have been working on that but you don't play one main way for the best part of a decade and then switch it up in an off-season. I don't see them as top 2 this season unless the impact on their pick and go game near the line isn't as big as I think it will be. Definitely top opposition though.
Wasps are an odd one, at their best they're pretty special though. They were a brain fart by Hughes away from beating Chiefs in 2016/17 too hasta and arguably beaten as much by Covid as Chiefs in 2019/20. Two finals they entered as serious under-dogs but were they went toe-to-toe with the top team in the Premiership at the time.
I think the whole league looks very good tbh and I think we'll have fewer and fewer weekends were certain games can be chalked off as dead-rubbers before they're played.
Ex play the style they play because it's effective for them, but they also make a lot of metres in breaks from around their own 10m. I think they've got a good balanced squad who will not lose too many to internationals.
I wonder if Lam will finally start teaching his team that there's (occasionally) a time and place for closing a game down or if he'll just stick stubbornly to his game plan.
Simmons, Slade, Nowell, O'Flaherty and Hogg have the skill. Will this season's law changes drive the will?
P G Tips
Jaco Coetzee: my adopted Player, 2023-24.
Quote:hasta
I wonder if Lam will finally start teaching his team that there's (occasionally) a time and place for closing a game down or if he'll just stick stubbornly to his game plan.
I understand the point but Bris finished top of the Prem and have won the (little) Euro cup with it so its pretty effective. Ironically it was a team who perhaps threw it about even more who beat them in ET in the semis, although Quins front 5 is pretty solid these days. In the semi Bristol started losing the plot around 1/2 time so I guess that would be too early to close it down anyway? More to the point, do they actually have the players who can (and will) play the % game - Sheedy isn't that guy.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:hasta
I don't think Wasps have the squad now they had then. They're a very confusing team. When Willis, Launchbury, Robson on fire, they're so good.
Losing attack coach Martin Gleeson to England could blunt them too!
P G Tips
Jaco Coetzee: my adopted Player, 2023-24.
I pray we improve but I do feel we are very light in terms of certain positions and experience. It will be very much fight or flight for some players. It is never good to actually hear a DoR stating he wished some of his players especially at 9 had received more game time or exposure- surely there was scope last season to play one of our present 9's instead of belligerently playing Chudley week in week out when you knew he was leaving?
Still fresh hope and optimism cometh the new season, a chance for.new talent to shine
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021:09:07:11:37:26 by Ali1969.
Quote:Ali1969
I have to say I like the look of what Borthwick is assembling at Tiger's some astute signings
1) south african? Tick
2) big? Tick
Perfect, get him signed.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:BathMatt53Quote:Ali1969
I have to say I like the look of what Borthwick is assembling at Tiger's some astute signings
1) south african? Tick
2) big? Tick
Perfect, get him signed.
BathMatt - is that not what we are desperately searching for at the moment in the Engine room?
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:hasta
I don't think Wasps have the squad now they had then. They're a very confusing team. When Willis, Launchbury, Robson on fire, they're so good.
Ex play the style they play because it's effective for them, but they also make a lot of metres in breaks from around their own 10m. I think they've got a good balanced squad who will not lose too many to internationals.
I wonder if Lam will finally start teaching his team that there's (occasionally) a time and place for closing a game down or if he'll just stick stubbornly to his game plan.
I think Blackett is quietly building what will be a very good squad at Wasps although I except the point about their reliance on a few really key players. From our season in the Championship and having had Robin at Sarries for part of the season before last I think recruiting Hislop and Millar-Mills from the Championship is some very shrewd business. Both are very good props and as importantly leaders in their teams and leadership is something Wasps often (IMO) look short of. I also get their may be non-rugby reasons for him leaving you but I think Stooke is a brilliant signing for them and strengthens an area where Launchbury aside they have often looked under-powered. Willis(s) Barbeary, Fifita, Car and Youngs in the backrow all look pretty useful too. they've already got good backs and I was very sad to see Crossdale leave us to join them as I think he's an excellent player. Hooughard and Robso rotating at 9 gives them the experience to balance Umaga/Atkinson at 10 with Fekitoa at 13. It all looks pretty positive to me.
You could be right about Chiefs although those breaks tend to come off traditional pick and go to concentrate the defence and make space. I see more and more packs with the size to match that game in defence where previously they had been bullied.
Towards the end of the season Lam mentioned several times after close games lost that players were going off script. I believe he said the same after the Quins game too. Given in those games a key issue was his 9 and 10 kicking poorly and repeatedly down the necks of the opposition having kept the ball more in hand in the first halfs I'd wonder if that's what he was thinking about? If it is he was unable to change that behaviour for the semi-final despite having seen it happen before. He's a very good coach so I'd hope the pre-season has given him time to address that.
Quote:warrenball
I think both Tigers and Bath supporters will be desperately disappointed if they are not in the race this year, certainly from a Bath perspective as long as Cipriani stays fit we should have a much better balanced team than last year so it will be the right time to make a judgement on the coaching staff and the way the club is run more generally
Whilst Tigers have a better chance than Bath I don't really see either contending for a top 4 place.
Quote:OutsideBath
Whilst Tigers have a better chance than Bath I don't really see either contending for a top 4 place.
Finishing in the top 4 maybe, but I would certainly see both contending.
In fact I am struggling to see any team who wouldn't be able to contend for top 4 this year with the lower cap and some good signings by lower teams. Irish, Falcons, Gloucester and Worcs were last years top 4 and none of them will be easy to beat this season. That mid-table 'blob' is going to be gridlocked. Exciting stuff!
Skybet Odds:
Saracens 2/1
Exeter Chiefs 5/2
Bristol 5/1
Sale Sharks 13/2
Harlequins 14/1
Northampton 20/1
Wasps 20/1
Bath 25/1
Leicester 25/1
Gloucester 50/1
London Irish 100/1
Worcester 100/1
Newcastle 150/1
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2021:09:08:13:27:51 by BathMatt53.
Right now I’m just hoping we can find a way to be better than that.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:BathMatt53
Irish, Falcons, Gloucester and Worcs were last years top 4 and none of them will be easy to beat this season.
Mmmm...... was the Exeter v Harlequins Final a con trick then Matt?
PG
Quote:P G TipsQuote:BathMatt53
Irish, Falcons, Gloucester and Worcs were last years top 4 and none of them will be easy to beat this season.
Mmmm...... was the Exeter v Harlequins Final a con trick then Matt?
PG
Ah yes, I typed that standing on my head PG, apologies!!
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
[www.rugbypass.com]
Don’t think we’ve announced and doesn’t necessarily make it so but could he be our skipper this season?
I could see Ewels being “club captain” and Underhill “playing captain”. In my opinion, Ewels’ captaincy credentials took a bit of a pasting last season, especially given his own poor discipline, and so I’d be up for a fresh start on that front. I’d also like Ewels just to focus on his game.
Love Underhill. Think he’s smart, guaranteed to start (if fit), leads by example and could be the hard nosed, no nonsense attitude we need going into a new season and a bit of a new (Cipriani led) era. Not sure if he’s captained before but seems like a bloke I would get behind!
Keen to hear thoughts or if anyone’s heard any of my conjecture confirmed!
P G Tips
Jaco Coetzee: my adopted Player, 2023-24.
Quote:dr.bath1865
Suspected as such, but then actually thought that Underhill seemed like a pretty decent candidate!
He was being touted as skipper for the USA/Canada tour that ended up in England, Lewis Ludlow captained in the end but I agree he could easily do the job at Bath or of course Dunny who has a similar leadership style.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:dr.bath1865
Suspected as such, but then actually thought that Underhill seemed like a pretty decent candidate!
Surely Underhill doesn’t play enough games for Bath to be captain?
Quote:OutsideBathQuote:dr.bath1865
Suspected as such, but then actually thought that Underhill seemed like a pretty decent candidate!
Surely Underhill doesn’t play enough games for Bath to be captain?
Same number as Ewells I'd have thought.