CAREFUL HUSBANDRY? SEASON PREVIEW 2023
Borthwick: favourite
By PG Tips
August 29 2022
Careful husbandry will be the order of the day for Directors of Rugby in the coming season. The reduced salary cap and the forthcoming World Cup will place a premium on pragmatic squad management. As always, injuries and international call ups will have their impact too. With considerable summer turnover and several squads heavily hit by the need to trim budgets this could in theory be the most competitive Premiership season yet. Let’s look at possible winners, losers and also -rans.
It's tempting to look to “the usual suspects” for lead contenders. However, last season’s top 4 represented a 75% churn from 2021 and a total of 9 clubs have made the playoffs in the past 3 campaigns. Leaders must therefore look to their laurels while the ambitious have plenty of encouragement to aspire. Leicester are the perfect illustration. They pulled themselves up from the edge of oblivion to champions in two seasons, launching DOR Steve Borthwick to favourite for the England coach’s job. Borthwick has laid his foundations wisely and recruited well but Tigers still face tough challenges with the loss of their engine Genge, their pilot Ford and talismanic former captain Tom Youngs. Their stability and gameplan should keep them competitive but much will depend on how well Pollard (seldom a starter last year at Montpellier) or Gopperth fit into the 10 shoes to direct play.
Should Tigers falter, Saracens, full of international quality, will almost certainly be circling for revenge. Narrowly bested in last year’s final they have, unusually, no star acquisitions for 2023 (though Tizard from Quins is a canny addition) but will rely on a settled squad and trusted game plan. How much though will they miss Vincent Koch and Richard Barrington? They should be in the mix come May. Both of last year’s losing Semi-finalists could be vulnerable -neither Harlequins nor Northampton having recruited much, except for their academies, which may be a sign of confidence. Harlequins, who could not quite repeat the knock-out dramatics of 2021 in June, do have coaching stability, now entering the second year under Tabai Matson. Saints have said farewell to several veteran players, including Wood, Harrison and Francis but the biggest hole to fill could be that of departing DOR Chris Boyd, architect of their recent playing style.
Of the chasing pack, Gloucester seem the most settled, Sale the most disrupted and London Irish to have the most exciting prospects, though it would be unwise to write off Exeter after 8 years of excellence. Tuisue will add to Gloucester’s stock of hard-nosed, hard carrying backrow forwards although Jordy Reid’s breakdown work may be their trump card. With enough ball and sensible control at half back they could be very exciting to watch with the likes of Hastings, Harris, May & Rees-Zammit in their backline. This will be the year they aim to mount a major challenge. Sale must face life without some key forwards from last time- Langdon, De Jager, JP du Preez and Neild. They also need to replace the fizz and direction of De Klerk and McGinty, without new recruit George Ford, who could miss most of the season. These absences will pose a big headache for Alex Sanderson. Exeter similarly have waved goodbye to Skinner, Lonsdale and Armand from the pack but their places have been taken by powerful new signings in Wallaby Scott Sio, giant locks Dunne and van Heerden and junior Bok flanker Davis. With Cowan-Dickie, Ewers, Gray and S Simmonds bringing the home -grown experience, ably backed by highly promising youngsters Capstick and Tshunza Rob Baxter has plenty of forward depth. Much will depend on how they manage returns from injury. They missed Devoto’s midfield solidity last season and will hope to get Slade back quickly to fire the outside backs. If the new arrivals gel, they will be strong contenders for the Top 4. The backline should be a strength at London Irish with starlets Arundell and Joseph, both capped in Australia, graduating from the Academy to join Loader, Janse van Rensburg and Hassall-Collins. They have the forwards to hold their own with the best but have they the game management at fly half to build on their exciting attacking work of the past two years?
That brings us to the stragglers, all of whom face considerable challenges in the coming season. For Wasps off-field problems loom large: they have had to delay repayment of the bond which financed their purchase of the Coventry Building Society arena, incurring further debt in the process and forcing them to put player recruitment on hold. They are in talks with HMRC about an outstanding tax bill, which only adds to their financial woes. Now, in a drought summer, their pitch has been deemed unsafe. On the playing side they have gained veteran prop Koch but said goodbye to Thomas Young, Gopperth, Gaskell, Le Bourgeois, Miller & M Watson. At their best both fluent and eye catching in attack, will they have the consistency and squad depth to reach the heights they did 3 seasons ago?
Bristol with Genge, Armstrong and Bradburynew in their pack will look to the experience of McGinty to direct them around the field. Accounting errors have forced them to trim their squad more than they intended, to comply with the cap, shedding players they had hoped to keep. The absence of Afoa, Attwood, Leuia, Eadie and Hughes could deplete their power running game but Randall, O’Connor, Piutau and Radrada form the foundation of a strong running backline. Expect them to entertain and frustrate their supporters in equal measure and shock a few opponents, but they will probably have to settle for a lower half finish. Worcester and Newcastle, basement clubs for the past 3 seasons, have both seen more departures than new signings. Worcester’s acquisition of Langdon, Morozov & Neild up front and their lively collection of backs could all be academic in face of their financial crisis. If, as seems likely, their salvation lies in administration that could bring a 35 points deduction penalty- that is if they can find a way to pay player salaries. Newcastle could opt for a style transformation now that Dean Richards has stepped down as DOR. They have said farewell to Wilson, Brown and Schreuder and will rely on academy promotions for new talent. If either of these two clubs is to climb the table it is unlikely to be this season.
So finally to Bath. Where to start? An enigma for the past 7 seasons, they have spent the last 3 sliding down the table, avoiding a drop to the Championship only by a Covid induced moratorium on relegation. The last time Bath came so close to relegation (2003) there was a wholesale clear-out, 16 new players came in and Bath finished the 2004 regular season at the top of the table. This time there are 13 new senior faces, mostly among the forwards, and a new look coaching team. Can Johann van Graan emulate John Connolly and take Bath from 13th to 1st? That would be some ask and task. A wind of change does seem to be blowing at Farleigh though and the squad appear upbeat about the season to come. Any prediction would be foolhardy after recent false dawns, so I will leave with this thought. A friend who made a killing from the bookies on Bath’s 2004 transformation has invested in them again for Bath to make the Top 4.
I hope he is right.
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2022:09:05:10:44:51 by hasta.
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:BathMatt53
With Youngs / Wigglesworth, Burns and Gopperth potentially starting for Tigers (is JVP rested after England?) that is one seriously 'experienced' 9, 10 and 12 for them.
Or 9,10,10 perhaps the mystery for me at Tigers is Pollard, how on earth does he fit in with the rest of those backs? Its like having antimatter in your warp drive on the Enterprise!
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:shipwreckedQuote:BathMatt53
With Youngs / Wigglesworth, Burns and Gopperth potentially starting for Tigers (is JVP rested after England?) that is one seriously 'experienced' 9, 10 and 12 for them.
Or 9,10,10 perhaps the mystery for me at Tigers is Pollard, how on earth does he fit in with the rest of those backs? Its like having antimatter in your warp drive on the Enterprise!
Agreed. Is he the grit in the oyster? He could equally be the grit in the turbine -or the windpipe!
PG
Quote:gaz59
The rumour yesterday was of a Worc - Wasps merger. Brought back horrible memories of just how close we came to a Bath- Bristol merger
Proposed by the current owners apparently (not current owners for very long).
I'm not sure how merging 2 clubs with lots of debt makes a club profitable - presumiably administration comes first otherwise they would start with >£50m debt?
Even then the joint average attendence would be less than Bristol (and only just more than Bath), they would only get 1 lots of sponsorship, TV rights etc, half the games etc. How could it possibly work?!
[24/25 adoptee: Francois van Wyk]
Quote:P G TipsQuote:shipwreckedQuote:BathMatt53
With Youngs / Wigglesworth, Burns and Gopperth potentially starting for Tigers (is JVP rested after England?) that is one seriously 'experienced' 9, 10 and 12 for them.
Or 9,10,10 perhaps the mystery for me at Tigers is Pollard, how on earth does he fit in with the rest of those backs? Its like having antimatter in your warp drive on the Enterprise!
Agreed. Is he the grit in the oyster? He could equally be the grit in the turbine -or the windpipe!
PG
Grytpipe-Thynne?
... IMHO, of course.
Now in Honolulu
Nothing can stop the Duke of Earl
Quote:BathMatt53Quote:gaz59
The rumour yesterday was of a Worc - Wasps merger. Brought back horrible memories of just how close we came to a Bath- Bristol merger
Proposed by the current owners apparently (not current owners for very long).
I'm not sure how merging 2 clubs with lots of debt makes a club profitable - presumiably administration comes first otherwise they would start with >£50m debt?
Even then the joint average attendence would be less than Bristol (and only just more than Bath), they would only get 1 lots of sponsorship, TV rights etc, half the games etc. How could it possibly work?!
With you BathMatt especially as they would revert to 1 x Salary Cap and 1 x Marquee spot? How on Earth can this make financial sense and the market would be flooded with a lot of serious players with all clubs finalised which means quality International players "twiddling" their thumbs in a World Cup lead up season?
I suppose with Wasps they could change their name to the Worcester Nomads given their transient recent history.
It is the fans I feel for.
Quote:BathMatt53Quote:gaz59
The rumour yesterday was of a Worc - Wasps merger. Brought back horrible memories of just how close we came to a Bath- Bristol merger
Proposed by the current owners apparently (not current owners for very long).
I'm not sure how merging 2 clubs with lots of debt makes a club profitable - presumiably administration comes first otherwise they would start with >£50m debt?
Even then the joint average attendence would be less than Bristol (and only just more than Bath), they would only get 1 lots of sponsorship, TV rights etc, half the games etc. How could it possibly work?!
I think you are looking at it from a rational perspective BM. The proposal came from a position of desperation and anyway not surprisingly Wasps kicked it out the ground very quickly