What are The Royals Chances of Promotion?

By The Rouge
March 18 2004

The Royals are entering the business end of the season and with games running out, it remains to be seen whether or not Reading can finish above enough of their promotion rivals to finish in a play-off place.

Some Reading fans have already written off the Royals’ chances of success this year, basing their opinions more on the fact Reading have largely looked inferior to those above them in the table and don’t look like having the consistency to deliver three good performances in the playoffs if they do get there. Whilst I consider promotion unlikely, I am in the school of thought that says they have stayed in touch despite indifferent form and if the team could suddenly click then they have a chance of going up. The last two times Reading have found themselves in the playoffs, they have been occupying a playoff place for most of the season and had a dip in form just before these crucial games. This time Reading would have to be one of the form teams to amass the number of points required to get them there. Wolves were not the third best team in division one last season yet they got to the promised land and everything that has happened since is almost irrelevant - they got there, have made some bad signings in my opinion, still have a slender chance of staying up but will probably come back down a stronger club than they were when they went up.

So what needs to happen for Reading to get into the playoffs? Well, probably a bit of luck, some individual flair and some crucial players hitting top form. They have a different manager, some different players and a different system to last year, so there is not much point in thinking retrospectively, but it is fair to say that James Harper, Nicky Shorey and even Graeme Murty have not consistently reproduced their form of last season. Nicky Forster was lucky with injuries last year and despite the deserved praise of Lloyd Owusu’s form in a Reading shirt, there have been several instances in recent matches when Reading have badly missed Forster.

The biggest positive for Reading FC this year has been the form of Steve Sidwell. He has consistently been the team’s best performer and quite often the best midfielder on the pitch. To add to this there have been improved performances from James Harper and John Salako in recent weeks, with Kitson and Brooker both looking extremely capable off the bench. Despite the injuries, for the first time since last season, it has been hard to select a squad of 16 for the games, which is a testament to the acquisitions and form of Owusu, Kitson, Morgan and Brooker. I personally did not disagree with any of Coppell’s decisions over the players he has let go (although there is a question mark over how good a player Nathan Tyson will become) and you have to say that his signings (Ingimarsson, Kitson, Owusu, Morgan, Brooker) at this stage have all been a success.

In recent matches, James Harper has looked like the player he was last season. He is never going to be a tough tackler or midfield enforcer but he does possess the ability to produce moments of magic that can create goals. He won the free kick for Shorey’s opener against Sheff Utd but his x-factor is best communicated by the way he dropped his shoulder and ran at the Sheff Utd defence to win the crucial penalty. Harper’s main battle seems to be with his self. Outside of press interviews, one of Reading’s star players recently revealed that Harper was badly affected by criticism of him coming from the press and the fans. This is apparent in his game as he often looks for the safe, possession keeping option rather than that threaded pass or mazy run that can result in a goal. To Coppell’s credit he has told him not to worry about losing the ball, but the groans of 14,000 fans may tell him otherwise. Sometimes fans have short memories, but the recent reminders of his past form should hopefully earn him more patience from the fans.

The subject of Andy Hughes is a contentious issue, and although I am the first to admit that his crossing is woeful at times I do believe he adds some vital components to the team. In the aftermath of the Stoke game, many fans were complaining about our lack of width on the right, but many division one managers feel that width on both flanks is a luxury you cannot afford. If you play with two genuine wingers against a team that plays with one, it can often leave your two central midfielders battling against three. If Reading still had a Mick Gooding or a Phil Parkinson to sit alongside Sidwell then there could still be an argument for this, but the Sidwell-Harper pairing needs support and Hughes’ coverage of the pitch was phenomenal against Stoke. In an attacking sense he did not have the best game but defensively he made covered a lot of runs, made crucial interceptions (one particularly important one in the left back position last week) and closed down well. Salako and Brooker can play as genuine wingers and hug the touchline whilst Reading have the ball but playing Salako on the left and Murray on the right did leave the midfield terribly exposed earlier in the season.

The game against Stoke was a good example of what the team possessed and lacked. Reading had determination, had technically gifted footballers and had the necessary ability and belief to create pressure and a few good chances that could have delivered a slender victory. What the team lacked was pace and movement. Stoke were by no means the most negative team to play at the Madejski Stadium, but they did get people behind the ball and play with two banks of four across the pitch. Goater and especially Owusu played well, but the team lacked the pace and movement upfront to really disrupt Stoke’s formation and create space. Arsenal are the national yardstick for all teams in this department and the runs of Pires, Henry and Ljungberg pull apart a defence, give passing options and create space for others. When Ingimarsson, Shorey or Harper were on the ball against Stoke, the players ahead of them were largely static and this is a problem for the Royals when trying to break down well organised teams. To be fair to Brooker, he did make runs off the ball when he came on and Owusu did make some runs into the channels. This questionable area of our attacking play is perhaps not the most apparent from the stands but this is one of the main qualities that Nicky Forster brings to the Reading team. Of course not every team needs their flick-ons, their crosses, their counter attacks and their movement to all be optimised to score goals - Cardiff was an example of this with three headed goals - but many of the form teams in this division have this dimension through the energy and intelligent runs of players like Andy Johnson, Darren Huckerby and David Connolly. I am of the opinion that Reading are badly missing Forster and that he has the ability to forge a valuable partnership with Owusu or Kitson, as well as Shaun Goater. Against Nottingham Forest at the City Ground, Forster seemed to have taken more of a supplier role for Goater and the partnership showed good signs of flowering. Upon his return it will be an interesting quandary for Coppell, as Goater is probably the best finisher at the club but the striker that offers less aerial assistance for Forster. If Owusu stays I believe that Reading will have the personnel to score enough goals to win promotion (which probably only half the teams in division one have) and then be able to concentrate on defending and creativity. Forster’s injury and Kitson’s settling in period may mean Reading do not quite have that this season but there is always hope that they can ride their luck, get the results and have a team more fit to challenge in a couple of months time. I personally am confident that Reading are moving in the right direction and I think they have a much better squad than this time last year.

Mid-table consolidation would be disappointing given the team’s excellent start and prospects under Pardew, but the wheels did fall off and they did take some putting back on. You get the feeling that Reading would have to take the spoils of the home games against Sunderland, West Ham, Norwich and West Brom whilst claiming a few good or lucky away victories. Whilst this may not be probable it is possible. The excellent victory against Cardiff could be just the catalyst the team needs and the team will feel all of the remaining fixtures can be won. Whether it is this season or next season, promotion is an attainable goal. Well at least while there are 20 teams in the Premiership!!