Oxford are back and ready to impress

Oxford United have returned to League Two after a four year exile in the Conference. They're coming back as a stronger team and the optimism at the Kassam Stadium and some fans have made them one of the favourites to go up again. However, is that a realistic target to have, or should Oxford be concentrating more on a respectable finish?

Oxford are one of those classic first-half-season wonders who usually collapse in the second half of the season. If you imagine how Lincoln collapsed in the second half of the 2006/7, Oxford have done that three times in the last five seasons. When they were relegated in 2005/6 it wasn't until the very end of the year where relegation even seemed like a possibility. After 23 games they were comfortably above the relegation zone and although they had been far from a team that were likely to battle for promotion, they looked a good bet for a comfortable midtable finish.

A 1-0 win over Peterborough in March 25^th saw them sit in 18^th, seven points above the drop zone with seven to play and although it wouldn't be considered a brilliant season, they looked certain to survive. However, the next two games ended in defeats and all of a sudden they were only a point above the drop zone. A 1-1 draw against Wrexham on the penultimate weekend seemed like a decent result, but news filtered through that results elsewhere meant that Oxford were in the relegation zone for the first time during the season.

A home match against Leyton Orient ended the season and the game was near enough guaranteed to produce tears one way or another. Oxford had to win to stay up, but Leyton Orient needed to win to guarantee going up. It started well for Oxford with Eric Sabin opening the scoring in the 14^th minute, but Orient's Easton equalised two minutes later. Alexander put Orient in the lead just two minutes before the eventually sent off Willmott equalised.

Oxford piled forward and the pressure was suddenly off of Orient after they found out Grimsby were no longer beating Northampton, meaning Orient only needed to avoid defeat to go up instead of the Mariners, Oxford still needed to score again though to stay up. A last minute corner saw everyone except Turley in the Oxford goal pile forward, but Orient broke forward from this in a five on one situation and sealed their promotion through Lee Steele, a goal that also confirmed Oxford's relegation. Had Oxford scored in the last minute, they would have stayed up at Stockport's expense on goal difference.

It looked for a long time that Oxford would make an immediate return as they went unbeaten until mid-November in the League. Their first 18 games had produced 13 wins and 5 draws, but despite that record, the defeat meant that Dagenham and Redbridge were only behind by two points. The former very quickly disappeared after that defeat and they would only win three times in the League between November 18^th and February 17^th, ironically beating the club whom had started that run, Gravesend and Northfleet (now known as Ebbsfleet).

Despite that incredibly bad run, they were only seven points behind Dagenham with fourteen games to go. However, whatever they managed, Dagenham beat it and even though Oxford won four games in a row, they ended up eight points behind the Daggers, but at least Oxford had effectively confirmed they would definitely be in the Playoffs. They eventually finished 14 points behind Dagenham and would face Exeter in the Playoffs. The away leg produced a 1-0 win but a 2-1 defeat at home meant that the match went to penalties, Oxford losing 4-3.

The failure to return at the first attempt proved to be more than just a hammer blow as although they finished 9^th and 7^th in the subsequent seasons, they were nowhere near the force they were the previous season. The turning point in Oxford's time in the non-league came when Patterson was sacked and replaced by Chris Wilder.

His first full season was last season and Oxford got off to a similar start to the 2006/7 season and they already had 52 points by Christmas came around, an eight point lead over Stevenage and promotion seemed almost certain. However, just like the past they started to fail to win on such a regular basis, but managed to keep a reasonable distance over Stevenage. Oxford suffered only one win in eight games and by the time they that run came to an end, they were eight points off the lead. They finished the season third.

The Playoffs saw them almost ironically face the team they went down to the Conference with, Rushden and Diamonds. A 3-1 aggregate win set them up for a final over York, another former League club. Oxford secured promotion thanks to a 3-1 win in front of a crowd of 42,669. outnumbering the York fans by over 3 to 1.

So now they're back in the Football League and they appear to be keeping the majority of the squad that brought them up to try and complete the job. They have however added a few good additions, notably Simon Heslop following his release from Barnsley. Other additions are Harry Worley, Jake Wright, Mitchell Cole, Simon Eastwood, Matt Green, Steven Kinniburgh and Ben Purkiss.

Chris Wilder also appears to be one of the better younger managers in the division, winning 60.76% of his 79 games in charge of Oxford and he has already stated he is aiming for a second successive promotion, so there's certainly ambition there. I don't think they have the quality to quite push for the Playoffs but this season shouldn't be about pushing for promotion for Oxford.  

Under Wilder I doubt they'll have the problem they had last time in this division. After a bad first season in 2001/2, they were one of the better sides for the next two seasons before getting very bad, very quickly, you can't see that happening this time. I suspect Wilder will eventually pull off the same sort of impact that Ian Atkins did during his spell in charge, although I doubt Wilder will bugger of to Bristol Rovers like Atkins did (Bristol Rovers were battling relegation to the Conference when Atkins left promotion chasing Oxford to join them). For those City fans who can't remember the delights of Ian Atkins, the best way to describe him would be "just an arsehole."

It's important he doesn't under-estimate League Two though as unlike the Conference, there are no easy games in League Two. Granted, there are favourable games but no easy games. In the Conference you would be able to look at your games and be easily able to predict the sides you'll take a decent amount of points from and be right 90% of the time, in League Two it's far more difficult.

I am confident that they will be one of the more difficult teams to be next season and that will mean that they are nowhere near the relegation zone. Realistically if Oxford start their targeting at midtable and then see where they are at Christmas and reassess. Oxford will be one of those sides who will get better over the next few years and might be ready for a Playoff push in a year or two, but for now the most important thing is that they don't get relegated straight back, although I can't see that happening.