Nigel forever?
By Graham Smith
September 26 2023
A 50% win rate! Woo hoo! That makes Nigel Adkins even more successful than Johnny King, which just goes to show you can have lies, damn lives and statistics. But the win against Accrington sets Nigel on his way. There now seems to be a clamour to appoint him on a permanent basis. Is this wise?
There is no doubt that Nigel Adkins has made a difference. The team is more purposeful and has greater confidence. He's also been prepared to assess the players we have rather than assuming the first team regulars are the ones who automatically get picked. This must be challenging for the likes of Kieran Morris and Paul Lewis, but it's necessary. We need 100% from players for the rest of the season.
NA had a pretty good record at Southampton, with a win rate of 53%. Over the remaining games that would deliver approximately 62 points by my calculations, not quite enough to make the play offs but enough to give us mid table respectability, if not a top third finish. At Charlton, during his last period of management, his win rate was much lower, with a 34% win rate. If that were repeated we will end the season with 43 points, almost certain relegation form. We just have to hope he can replicate his time at Southampton for the remainder of this season.
Of course, we have had managers with similar, if not better reputations than Nigel. Brian Little and Micky Adams both joined Rovers with extensive management careers behind them. Both failed to live up to their past records, Adams particularly so. Little managed a 41% win rate, which would see us with a points total of 51 points if it were repeated across the remainder of the season. Of course it's fair to say we are not comparing apples with apples. The squads managers inherit determine their initial success, particularly at a club like Rovers who do not have the cash to splash.
There is a body of opinion that would like to see Adkins stay to bring on the skills of a new manager, maybe someone like Dann's. That would certainly be beneficial. At the same time, the absence of names being linked to our permanent vacancy suggests that this may be what is in the minds of Mark & Nicola Palios. We shall see.
All we can do at the moment is get behind the players and hope that Nigel Adkins' Super White Army delivers enough wins, and enough excitement, to,preserve our league status.
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Any manager / player is a gamble, but one way to judge is based on relative merits. Player track record can be useful, as are games played and in which league(s), but they are only barometers, as any player or manager might work well in one clubs setup, but not in another.
People like Peter Shilton, Ray Clemence and Bobby Charlton are examples of top of their game players, that management didn't fit with.
Jack Dunn is an example of a big club upbringing, that has never materialised into consistent league competency, in comparison to players like Jamie Vardy, Michael Antonio and Dwight Gayle.
Then I ate his Liver.......... with some baked beans and a can of coke.
If we win 34% of the remaining games (as Adkins did at Charlton), we will clearly stay up and will finish solidly in mid-table.
Quote:Ooh, good point. I missed that.Nicko1234
Not sure about some of the maths in the OP which doesn't seem to include any draws.
If we win 34% of the remaining games (as Adkins did at Charlton), we will clearly stay up and will finish solidly in mid-table.
Quote:ALOTBSOL
as Mark stated - the available managers are usually those who failed at their last club....
That.is true, but some also come with a record that they have at least succeeded before. and so might again. Selection is not easy and cannot come with a guarantee, but that increases the need for rigour rather treating it as though it is a totally random process.
Reason being is that I do not think we could get anyone better, particularly who we could afford. I mean in pedigree terms, we have one of, if not the best managers on paper in L2 and L1 for that matter.
We have improved over the past 2 weeks which has been evident on the pitch, disrupting that through a new manager in the near future holds too much risk for where we are currently sat. Similar circumstances to when Hill came in I suppose, Dawes/Parky had just delivered an upturn in form and we then progressed well under Hill. However, I
would say the key difference was that the team was also a lot stronger with Davies, Clarke, Spearing and Vaughan in the spine.
Obviously it depends on if Nigel would want it, but I am optimistic given how proud he was post match after the Accy game. Being in the dug out with a winning feeling does that, he was beaming with pride post match when discussing managing his first game at PP. I have a feeling he may well stay on until end of the season and really hope he does.
As for Danns, I don’t hold him responsible for anything and I don’t see a requirement to replace him. Again, just my opinion but I feel he was alienated slightly even by him just being in the stands during games. I do not think he had much influence and the tactics appeared pre determined by Dawes & Parky, given their success in interim before Hill. But like I said that team was much better to execute it. It just didn’t work this time round.
So Adkins and Danns atm are seemingly a good fit, even that win against Stockport is a massive positive for me. It breeds more confidence, not just in the players but also in Danns.
Still very early days but since they took charge there has certainly been an upward curve, even the performance against Crawley was positive for me. Hopefully that continues away on Saturday, crazy to think our last away win in the league was under Mickey 😳