Targets
By Ken Camerod
November 13 2023
We still remain in dire trouble and whilst the permanent appointment of Nigel Adkin has been welcomed, we are a long way short of maintaining our league status. We have 13 points. There are 87 points left to play for and I reckon we need another 40pts to be assured of League football. That's about 13 wins. It seems a tough call.
Our remaining fixtures this month include the away trip to Sutton at the weekend, followed by a home game against Gillingham and then a tough match against Mansfield. The remaining games before Christmas see us entertaining Newport County, travelling away to Walsall and then having Swindon visit us on the Saturday before Christmas. The Gillingham, Newport and Swindon matches should see us pick up 9pts. None of those teams are playing well. If we could pick up a couple of points on the road we might enter the Christmas period with 24 points. That would mean that we would need 10 wins in the New Year to secure our league position.
January looks tough. We have high flying Notts County on New Years Day and then visit Barrow. A home game against MK Dons is followed by two successive away games at Grimsby and Swindon. I can't see us picking up more than 4 points from our fixtures that month. February looks just as daunting. Crewe(a) currently having a good season and Stockport (h) provide a couple of Cheshire derbies. Then at the end of the month we go to middle earth for our return match against the Gumps. We also have a home game against Morecambe and an away trip to Doncaster. To me that looks like another month where picking up more than 5 points will be an achievement.
By the time we face Sutton United at the start of March we will be into our last 10 games. I doubt that we will have more than 32 points. This means that we have to win 6 of those games to be safe. Now, that's not impossible, but it's going to be tough. We have to hope that we strengthen ourselves sufficiently in the January transfer window so that we have the resources to push forward.
The fact is that we are in a mess. It's not a mess that suporters have created. Our win on Saturday showed us that the team can play well, the question remains, do we have enough time to turn things around?
Targets
Posted by: Total Tranmere (IP Logged)
Date: 13/11/2023 17:24
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Re: Targets
Posted by: dave-p (IP Logged)
Date: 13/11/2023 17:32
Quote:Total Tranmere
The Gillingham, Newport and Swindon matches should see us pick up 9pts
That may be a *tad* optimistic.
Re: Targets
Posted by: HardlyYardley (IP Logged)
Date: 13/11/2023 17:37
I'm optimistic. NA is a good, experienced manager. I've not subscribed to the idea that this is a terrible squad - I think we have some good players - I think the main problems have been lack of confidence and lack of organisation. I think NA is starting to turn that round. If (and, unfortunately, it is an if) we have Norris and Dennis together up front and both fit, we will do well. If not, we have to make do until January. Being solid up front relieves some of the pressure on the defence because the ball isn't coming back at them all the time. The defence has lacked confidence in themselves and each other - for example, Turnbull has generally had a poor season but he can play well and did play well on Saturday. If NA can instill greater confidence in the side, they are capable of playing better on a regular basis.
Re: Targets
Posted by: Bored rover (IP Logged)
Date: 13/11/2023 21:49
We either go all in back NA and spend to avoid relegation as FGR will do or we do limited loan only business relying on what we have and NA's coaching ability with the caveat we could drop. We shouldn't sign dross in the hope they come good
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2023:11:13:21:51:20 by Bored rover.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2023:11:13:21:51:20 by Bored rover.
Re: Targets
Posted by: Bored rover (IP Logged)
Date: 13/11/2023 21:52
BTW 40 points isnt enough needs to be 50 to be secure anything sub 50 could see relegation 47 points has gone down in the past
Re: Targets
Posted by: Phil65 (IP Logged)
Date: 13/11/2023 22:53
Quote:Bored rover
BTW 40 points isnt enough needs to be 50 to be secure anything sub 50 could see relegation 47 points has gone down in the past
I don’t know if 40 is a typo as the subsequent maths is looking at acquiring 50 points i.e. 32 points then winning six games.
Re: Targets
Posted by: CleeHillRoadROAR (IP Logged)
Date: 13/11/2023 22:53
The numbers are off right through this article - if we had 24 points by Christmas as the writer suggests we’d only need 16 more points (about 5 wins, not 10) to get to 40. And I agree with boredrover that 40 points might not be enough, so perhaps the writer meant to say that the real target for safety is more like 50?
Re: Targets
Posted by: Rhineman (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 06:04
38 points is the current safety target. If you think FGR the current survivors might improve there are plenty above who could fall especially after the window.
Be a lot nearer 40 than 50
Be a lot nearer 40 than 50
Re: Targets
Posted by: Crazylegs Cranebird (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 07:31
Quote:Bored rover
We either go all in back NA and spend to avoid relegation as FGR will do or we do limited loan only business relying on what we have and NA's coaching ability with the caveat we could drop. We shouldn't sign dross in the hope they come good
FGR did not spend much to avoid relegation last season...
Re: Targets
Posted by: Rhineman (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 09:11
Quote:Crazylegs CranebirdQuote:Bored rover
We either go all in back NA and spend to avoid relegation as FGR will do or we do limited loan only business relying on what we have and NA's coaching ability with the caveat we could drop. We shouldn't sign dross in the hope they come good
FGR did not spend much to avoid relegation last season...
Spent £120k on a keeper, albeit one who couldn't catch a dose, to my knowledge. That must account for a decade of Rovers's fees!
Re: Targets
Posted by: Zint (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 09:17
It’s interesting looking at this point last season. Hartlepool had 12 pts from 18 games. Rochdale, also eventually relegated had 15 points from 18 games.
After the Christmas matches, but before New Year, Rochdale still only had 15 points and Hartlepool had risen to 21st on 18pts.
At the start of March Hartlepool were 22nd with 29 points from 35 games. Dale were 24th, having played the same number of games, but with 25pts.
Then on the final day it finished with Hartlepool on 43pts and Dale on 38. Crawley who occupied the space above Hartlepool had 46 pts.
After the Christmas matches, but before New Year, Rochdale still only had 15 points and Hartlepool had risen to 21st on 18pts.
At the start of March Hartlepool were 22nd with 29 points from 35 games. Dale were 24th, having played the same number of games, but with 25pts.
Then on the final day it finished with Hartlepool on 43pts and Dale on 38. Crawley who occupied the space above Hartlepool had 46 pts.
Re: Targets
Posted by: DevonExile (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 09:18
Any grounds for confidence that we will avoid the drop are fragile. Saturdays win was vital but it was against a team also struggling and with an enormous injury list. Over the last six games of those teams in the bottom eight only Grimsby has collected as few points as us. We need momentum and that has to mean getting some results away. Sutton is an ideal opportunity and has to offer one of our best chances to get 3 points on the road.
It is far from certain that the January window will improve the team. It is possible that if Apter goes we could even be weakened. Improved results between now and January surely is essential to survival
It is far from certain that the January window will improve the team. It is possible that if Apter goes we could even be weakened. Improved results between now and January surely is essential to survival
Re: Targets
Posted by: spralos baldini (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 09:29
at our current rate (23%) win ratio will will only get another 20 points putting us on 33 points so a dramatic upturn is needed.
Re: Targets
Posted by: Zint (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 10:03
Colchester picked up 22pts between Boxing Day and the end of the season. They were bottom at this time last year.
Re: Targets
Posted by: dave-p (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 10:05
Quote:Our form so far is so bad that any uptick will have a dramatic effect on our points tally.spralos baldini
at our current rate (23%) win ratio will will only get another 20 points putting us on 33 points so a dramatic upturn is needed.
Re: Targets
Posted by: ALOTBSOL (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 11:06
To be honest Devon, there have been quite a few matches where Tranmere played against a team missing at least half their first choice players, and lost, so I was refreshing to see Tranmere win. Also, FGR did have a lot of possession so we’re still capable of playing reasonably well.
I don’t think the Sutton game is on ifollow despite the internationals so will probably go to the game given I live down south now. That game should be an indicator as to whether the FGR win was down to poor opposition…
At least there shouldn’t be an ‘Adkins Out’ protest!!!
I don’t think the Sutton game is on ifollow despite the internationals so will probably go to the game given I live down south now. That game should be an indicator as to whether the FGR win was down to poor opposition…
At least there shouldn’t be an ‘Adkins Out’ protest!!!
Quote:DevonExile
Any grounds for confidence that we will avoid the drop are fragile. Saturdays win was vital but it was against a team also struggling and with an enormous injury list. Over the last six games of those teams in the bottom eight only Grimsby has collected as few points as us. We need momentum and that has to mean getting some results away. Sutton is an ideal opportunity and has to offer one of our best chances to get 3 points on the road.
It is far from certain that the January window will improve the team. It is possible that if Apter goes we could even be weakened. Improved results between now and January surely is essential to survival
Re: Targets
Posted by: glos_white (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 12:23
Just checked and the game - Sutton - is scheduled to be on ifollow
Re: Targets
Posted by: hong kong rover (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 12:33
Targets - One game at a time.
Re: Targets
Posted by: ALOTBSOL (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 13:52
Quote:glos_white
Just checked and the game - Sutton - is scheduled to be on ifollow
That’s good thanks. , when I last looked I could only see ‘next match’ which was tonight’s.
Re: Targets
Posted by: glos_white (IP Logged)
Date: 14/11/2023 15:43
Welcome, need to click on the button below the next game to see beyond. I’ve only just worked it out…
Re: Targets
Posted by: Zint (IP Logged)
Date: 09/12/2023 23:07
This looks prescient now? ‘We could enter the Christmas period with 24 points’. Hmm
Re: Targets
Posted by: dave-p (IP Logged)
Date: 09/12/2023 23:34
Quote:dave-pQuote:Total Tranmere
The Gillingham, Newport and Swindon matches should see us pick up 9pts
That may be a *tad* optimistic.
Only one more win to happily eat some humble pie 😁
Re: Targets
Posted by: Zint (IP Logged)
Date: 10/12/2023 14:22
Most seasons I eat tons of humble pie, this one is no different
Re: Targets
Posted by: hong kong rover (IP Logged)
Date: 10/12/2023 14:31
Yesterdays match was our first game in 10 days., we will soon be playing 4 games in 10 days with the festive games vs Swindon, Salford, Harrogate and Notts...Santa has been good to us on his early rounds, hope he sticks around.
Re: Targets
Posted by: the kav (IP Logged)
Date: 13/12/2023 17:55
Bristol rovers went down with 50 and Barnet 51, it's normally around the 47 point mark that almost always guarantees safety. Off the top of my head I think 34 was enough one season
Re: Targets
Posted by: the kav (IP Logged)
Date: 13/12/2023 18:11
Just checked Barnet and 'fax went down on 36 but I didn't know, Dagenham also finished in 23rd on 34
Re: Targets
Posted by: Bored rover (IP Logged)
Date: 16/12/2023 16:39
We could do with a couple of FBs ours are ok but a bit agricultural and defo our weakness
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