Soft Tries?
Geronimo Jim
By Geronimo Jim
April 6 2009
Prompted by a message on The Tribe, Geronimo Jim discovers some interesting stats about tries scored for and against the Chiefs.
A look at some statistics
by
Geronimo Jim
I picked up on a thread (on The Tribe) that one poster felt we needed to tighten our defence next season as we concede “soft” tries. A glance at the points conceded column tells a different story on the surface at least, we have conceded fewer points than anyone other than Leeds. If there is an impression that our defence is soft it must come from somewhere.
This prompted me to try to dig deeper so I had a look at the statsbunker web site and it does raise some questions.
According to the bunker we’ve so far conceded 48 tries this season, only Leeds have bettered this, although we tie with Bedford & Nottingham. Where it gets interesting is where and when we concede the tries.
Of the 48 tries we conceded 30 of them away from home and, spookily, 30 in the second half of games.
So there is an apparent need to a) Stop conceding tries when we think the game is won (2nd half), and b) tighten our defence at away games.
The starkest statistic for me is that we have conceded 21 tries in the last 20 minutes of games, that a staggering 43.75% of tries conceded in 25% of game time. Statistics don’t lie (yes I know they can really!) so it would seem self evident that the perception that we go soft late in the game is true or that we simply aren’t as fit as other clubs in the league (I don’t think so).
Here’s an interesting point though, Leeds aren’t massively better in the last 20 minutes averaging 39%. Maybe it’s a concentration thing?
In attack we’ve scored 137 tries, 75 at home 62 away, with a mere 26% in the last 20 minutes. It does seem like we lose interest.
I think that the solution is easy, play hard for the first 20 MINUTES and last 20 minutes......
OF EACH HALF!
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.
As I have already said on other threads for me this has blighted the season giving away soft points and letting teams back into games. Certainly in recent times we have let teams back into games Nottingham for example I am well aware of the quality of the side but if you look at the nature of their tries they could be described as soft.
and frankly, if they cannot go 80 minutes in a match then they arent professional (knocks aside)
Irrespective of replacements on the ATTACKING side of the coin Exeter have scored a total of 137 tries so far with 36 in the last 20. This implies that we sit back and defend. In contrast Nottingham have scored 107 tries with 41 in the last 20 minutes. It appears that they (who aren't full time) have more gas or more ambition at the end of games than we do. They certainly aren't a better side than us (the total number of tries scored and league position proves this).
The more I look at this the more evident it is that the last 20 is where our real problem lies.
When we had romped the first half at home many time our team sat back and let the opposition attack. This had happened this season as well to as certain extent.
East Terrace Central
Our roads are paved with hope, and there are no stop signs.
"COME ON EXE!"