Saracen v Exeter Chiefs

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Exeter Chiefs

15 Josh Hodge

14 Ben Hammersley

13 Zack Wimbush

12 Ollie Devoto

11 Olly Woodburn

10 Harvey Skinner

9 Stu Townsend

1 Alec Hepburn

2 Jack Yeandle

3 Marcus Street

4 Rusi Tuima

5 Dafydd Jenkins (c)

6 Lewis Pearson

7 Jacques Vermeulen

8 Greg Fisilau

Replacements:

16 Dan Frost

17 Danny Southworth

18 Josh Iosefa-Scott

19 Jack Dunne

20 Ross Vintcent

21 Tom Cairns

22 Charlie McCaig

23 Arthur Relton

Saracens

1 Logovi’i Mulipola

2 James Hadfield

3 Christian Judge

4 Theo McFarland

5 Hugh Tizard

6 Juan Martin Gonzalez

7 Andy Christie

8 Billy Vunipola

9 Ivan van Zyl

10 Owen Farrell (c)

11 Alex Lewington

12 Olly Hartley

13 Nick Tompkins

14 Rotimi Segun

15 Alex Goode

Replacements:

16 Sam Crean

17 Eroni Mawi

18 Ollie Hoskins

19 Ollie Stonham

20 Toby Knight

21 Gareth Simpson

22 Lucio Cinti

23 Tom Parton

Match Officials

Referee: Karl Dickson
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley and Gareth Holsgrove
TMO: Rowan Kitt

Weather Forecast as at midday Friday

Partly cloudy with a light winds from the south
Temperature 7 degrees but will feel like 5 degrees.
Precipitation is not expected

TV Coverage

Channel 408 TNT Sports 1 SD from 1715
Channel 430 TNT Sports 1 HD from 1715

We have a poor record there don’t we? Feels like it’s set to continue I think, and they will have had a pin in this fixture since the first day of the season.

Saracens 35 Ex 23

I think you are being to pessimistic CullyChief. I like the look of our pack vs theirs and if we give our outside youngsters ball I think that line up will score some good tries.
It won't be another drubbing but think we will take good points.

We shouldn’t rely on one player, but IMO our back line doesn’t feel as strong without Henry in it. Our bench is not the strongest.

Saracens 39 Chiefs 22



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2024:01:26:12:30:00 by Chief Fire Water.

This is going to be tough. Can see us being a bit more route one in this game, hope I'm wrong. Both sides weakened but still see nothing other than a home win.

Sarnies 32 Chiefs 18

A few youngsters in the squad as expected, again comes down to securing our own set piece ball, if we can do that we might sneak it but home advantage and revenge for the hammering we inflicted favours them. Sarries 30 - 24 Chiefs.

Quote:

Chief Fire Water
We shouldn’t rely on one player, but IMO our back line doesn’t feel as strong without Henry in it. Our bench is not the strongest.

You'll always rely on a player as good as Slade. He can't really be replaced.

Well we buried them on our turf but that just means they owe us a hammering...yet our guys are going to want to put on a performance after what happened in Bayonne. Hmmm

Saracens 25 Chiefs 30.

Saracens 35-19 Chiefs

Sarries 24 Chiefs 30

For ever optimistic, will always remember the 1st game of this season!

Going to stick my neck out - Chiefs 27 Sarries 24

While Sarries are missing their big names, they’re still a threat at home. We will want to kick on after last weekend, hope we can pick up a LBP. Saracens 27 - 22 Chiefs

No back-up fly half!?

A hard afternoon ahead, me thinks.
Saracens 35 - 17 Exeter

Interpretation of scrums and breakdown by Mr Dickson will be key + can we throw the ball in properly at lineout and no cards?! Farrell, if on form, can boot pens from anywhere. For my top four predictions to hold water we need some points. Sarries 32 Chiefs 28 but home I am wrong. Agree with NM scurrilous underdoggery by OM.

Although I'd rather see how he gets on at 12, I'm absolutely fascinated to see how our back line functions with Zach starting. It could be electric or it might be a damp squib, given that it is as yet an untested combination outside of training.

As has been noted already (and given much prominence on the Sarries boards..😇) we may well have the edge at scrum time although I dont see the same at the lineout.

As such, it could either be a shock victory or a close defeat imo. Heart says the former but head says the latter, but that's not for public consumption.

I'm backing the backs to play some exciting stuff, and as I'd never own up in public to predicting a Sarries win over Ex, I'm going....

Sarries 23 Chiefs 35.

Quote:

Bodges with Badgers
No back-up fly half!?

Ollie D is presumably the back up plan, but its certainly a risk.

Quote:

Not Manichean

Quote:

Bodges with Badgers
No back-up fly half!?

Ollie D is presumably the back up plan, but its certainly a risk.

I think he is the only back-up option we have that isn't injured.

Quote:

cornwallchief
Interpretation of scrums and breakdown by Mr Dickson will be key + can we throw the ball in properly at lineout and no cards?! Farrell, if on form, can boot pens from anywhere. For my top four predictions to hold water we need some points. Sarries 32 Chiefs 28 but home I am wrong. Agree with NM scurrilous underdoggery by OM.

Just for the record CC, I make that 321 international caps v 20 in the starting XV...

And apparently they're the underdogs...🤣🤣🤣

Thanks NM excellent stats.

More from the DT

Team
Pts
Playoff probability
Next Opponent
Jeopardy swing

1. N'hampton
39
86%
Newcastle (H)
20%

2. Harlequins
36
61%
Leicester (H)
29%

3. Bath
36
55%
Bristol (A)
32%

4. Exeter
35
52%
Saracens (A)
32%

5. Sale
32
49%
Gloucester (A)
26%

6. Saracens
31
60%
Exeter (H)
33%

7. Leicester
29
29%
Harlequins (A)
28%

8. Bristol
25
7%
Bath (H)
10%

9. Gloucester
17
<1%
Sale (H)
<1%

10. Newcastle
4
<1%
Northampton (A)

"The most striking example will be at the StoneX. Oval reckon that both Saracens and Exeter have more than 30 per cent of a play-off place riding on the fixture, the first match this season to have such a “jeopardy swing” for both teams. Each team could get above 70 per cent with a handsome win; but each could tumble into the 30s with a heavy defeat and unfavourable results elsewhere."

It is undoubtedly an important match.

Combine it on the next 6 weeks NM - great post.

The bookmakers have Sarries 2/7 favourites and rightly so, still stacked with internationals and the plastic pitch is a huge advantage. Coupled with our nemesis ref in Dickson we are very much against it imo.
I do think we will score some points and the game will be much closer than the bookies suggest Sarries 31 chiefs 25.
Very good luck to the young lads making their debuts this week.

Dickson, plastic pitch, yellow/red cards, what could go wrong! Oh well, Josh and Zach to rip them to shreds so Sarriez 21 Chiefs 40

Sarries 21 Chiefs 28

Regarding a second kicker, Charlie McCaig although an outside centre has taken the majority of Exeter University's kicks in the BUCs league this season. He has scored 29 out of (I think) 38 attempts (76%).

Exeter Chiefs - living the dream!
Thoughts are like arrows: once released , they strike their mark. Guard them well or one day you may be your own victim

Sarries 32 - 18 Exe hope I am really very wrong!,

Saracens 24 - Chiefs 28

Quote:

Not Manichean
Just for the record CC, I make that 321 international caps v 20 in the starting XV...
And apparently they're the underdogs...🤣🤣🤣

It shouldn't be difficult (even for an ex-forward!) to work out it isn't that straight-forward.
About half those caps are in Farrell and Billy neither of whom are, unfortunately, playing like they want to be there. Hopefully that changes for the game but that was my hope for the Lyon game too which the absent Maro very much kept us in.
Even if that wasn't the case it's nit hard to see the difference between a team, even one with lots of caps, struggling with set piece and internal issues and one with both those things under-control and in a generally "good place"

I was nervous before the first game of the season but expected a win and said so. I have a horrible feeling Sarries will play exactly the same as we did then and allow you all the possession you want. Can't see a win based on that.

The truth is that it is Chiefs own need to be underdogs which is the real issue
Baxter admitted your last opponents under-dogged Chiefs attempts to be under-dogs to secure their victory so that seems Sarries most obvious path to victory to me ✌️

In the contest of under-doggery, I’m afraid I’m going for Sarries 32, Chiefs 19

Sarries 32 Chiefs 21

Saracens 26 Chiefs 27

Quote:

OldMarovian

Quote:

Not Manichean
Just for the record CC, I make that 321 international caps v 20 in the starting XV...
And apparently they're the underdogs...🤣🤣🤣

It shouldn't be difficult (even for an ex-forward!) to work out it isn't that straight-forward.
About half those caps are in Farrell and Billy neither of whom are, unfortunately, playing like they want to be there. Hopefully that changes for the game but that was my hope for the Lyon game too which the absent Maro very much kept us in.
Even if that wasn't the case it's nit hard to see the difference between a team, even one with lots of caps, struggling with set piece and internal issues and one with both those things under-control and in a generally "good place"

I was nervous before the first game of the season but expected a win and said so. I have a horrible feeling Sarries will play exactly the same as we did then and allow you all the possession you want. Can't see a win based on that.

The truth is that it is Chiefs own need to be underdogs which is the real issue
Baxter admitted your last opponents under-dogged Chiefs attempts to be under-dogs to secure their victory so that seems Sarries most obvious path to victory to me ✌️

Bullseye...! 🤣🤣😇

Enjoy the match Ruck. I still think that you'll win but that's just between you and me!

Best wishes amigo!

I'm keeping the faith, and looking forward to a kick back on last week's result. Sarries 23: Chiefs 27

In Rob we trust.
By the way - cream on first. There's nothing to debate.

Rather bet on a red card with Dickson as the ref,

We are defensively porous when we go a man down. Listening to Stu Townsend commentary when he was injured a while back, he confirmed that the team doesn’t practice being down to 14!

Anyway, Sarries 26 Chiefs 34

No rationale, just crossed fingers that we want it more and keep our heads when the pressure is on.

Really hard to predict this one. Sarries have been very inconsistent and are suffering from a few injuries, and somewhat of loss of confidence. Our front five has the edge, I feel, even with us missing probably our three best props. Will the pitch affect our scrum?

I think they probably have the edge in the backs. We will not only miss Henry as a player but his absence also leaves us without a confident kicker.
I'm slightly in agreement with OM regarding the caps, sorry NM!
Most of those caps are tied up in OF and BV. BV is a shadow of the player he was and I wouldn't want him in our team. The game for me turns on the form of OF, he has been a long long way below his best the last few weeks, the announcement of his transfer may have relived some pressure from him, who knows!
Has our confidence dropped after two poor performances?
With both teams maybe a bit low on confidence a fast start is crucial.
Then we have the fans fave ref to consider!
No result here would really shock me!
As my positive predictions have largely been wrong, I'm going Sarries 31: Chiefs 22 really hope I'm wrong again!!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2024:01:26:23:07:41 by Big Chief Little Chief.

The one thing that I really want from today is a reaction from last week's performance and I am pretty sure we will get one.
Away to Sarries is always a huge challenge and they are always more motivated against us which is understandable.
I would love us to make the playoffs this season but I feel we have already shown what we could be capable of if we keep this squad together moving forward.
Henry missing is an absolutely massive loss for us. That will be the difference today probably imo.
If we could get a result without Henry that would be massive.
Fingers crossed 🤞

This will be close, on paper knowing what we know now I believe we are about equal the biggest swing is they have their captain and we are without Slade.
But our pack is superior imho, my main two worries are the erratic and strange decisions of the ref and the chance of long lasting injuries on another dreadful artificial pitch.
Hopefully we can pull it off and walk away with the spoils and crucially injury free.

If we did find we needed another person to kick if Skinner is injured isn't Josh Hodge a good place kicker or is my memory suffering from a senior moment?

After last weeks show Sarries 35 Chiefs 12

Heart over head, I think, this week

Sarries 20 Chiefs 24

Sarries 21 Chiefs 28

Absolutely no idea, as usual
Sarries 21 - 26 Chiefs