Early Div2 odds - Hartlepool United outsiders

By Albatross
May 30 2003

Not even out of May, but you can already place a bet on Hartlepool United for 2003/4. Pools Online looks at what William Hills are currently offering to persuade Poolies to part with a few readies.

It may be less than a week since the final places in Div2 were decided, but if you want to the Bookies will already allow you to place a bet on the outcome of Division 2 in 2003/4. Unsurprisingly, Pools are outsiders by some distance - 28/1 at the moment with William Hill. Sometimes the odds table is seen as a barometer of how a team is expected to do, so let's have a look at how they see it.

If every team performs as Hill's odds indicate, Pools will finish 17th next season, a relatively comfortable four places above the relegation zone - which is currently what most fans seem willing to accept if our current poll is anything to go by. Bigger odds are currently available for Port Vale, Peterborough, Notts County, Bournemouth, Wycombe, Colchester and Chesterfield in that order. At the other end, the current favourites are Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton at 6/1, with QPR, Tranmere, Oldham and Bristol City also favoured.

So how right are the odds likely to be? Well, at the top end are the teams that you would expect to do well next season; two of the relegated sides, the three that missed out in the playoffs, and another side (Tranmere) who did well enough to have made the playoffs in almost any other season. Meanwhile, at the other end we've got the Div3 playoff winners, and a selection of clubs that are known to be struggling on or off the field - Notts County only agreeing a deal to come out of administration today after being threatened with expulsion if they failed to sort things out.

On the other hand, the bookies have been wrong before - especially in the lower reaches. Hull are once again the favourites in Div3, as they have been almost every season for a while now; while Darlo are as low as 12/1 to secure the title.

The thing to remember is that the Bookies aren't making predictions about where teams will finish. They are running a book; their aim is to make sure that no matter who wins the division, they aren't out of pocket. The people doing the predicting are the fans who place the bets; and the more bets placed on a team, the lower the odds will get. Think about how many Sheff Wed fans are likely to back their team next season; it's no surprise they are given low starting odds, although it is likely that they will be at the right end of the table.

Meanwhile, most clubs are yet to sign new players, and some out-of-contract players have not officially been released yet. Rushden look about to sign Rodney Jack, and there have been one or two other moves; but the majority will probably not take place until July. Making predictions at the moment is a very risky business.

There are a number of clubs in trouble though, and that at least should give us hope for the new season. Grimsby look set to scrap their reserves; Barnsley are in such a state that some of their fans have formed another club, and they have already lost Mike Sheron and Bruce Dyer; Notts County have only just escaped going under completely; and on top of all the others, Luton are shrouded in controversy at the moment with new owners and a sacked management team leaving the fans with a lot more questions than answers. IOR are continuing to support Hartlepool United, and we are in a lot better position than some. Whether that will translate into better performaces than those on the pitch though is another matter.