Playoff Places - Down to the wire?

Vic Park
By Albatross
April 11 2005

Hartlepool United are involved in yet another playoff campaign that looks set to go to the last possible game before being decided. Pools Online takes a look at the relative positions of the main contenders.

While all the teams in the top half could still in theory mount a challenge for the playoffs, in practice several are already out of the running. The top three look out of sight, so it's from 4th downwards that really count now. While fans of one or two of these clubs might disagree, I'd say that the likes of Doncaster, Bradford and Swindon are already too far behind even with a good run - and Bristol City and Huddersfield would need to pull something pretty special out of the bag to get close. Let's have a quick look at the contenders then, in order of current league position.

Sheffield Wednesday
Current Situation: 4th Place, 68 points, 4 games left

While some might say that they are in pole position, they are well out of form at exactly the wrong time. Currently without a win in five games, they need really to pick up a couple of wins to try and secure a place - and with away games at Pools and Hull it could well go down to the last day of the season for them. That's at home to Bristol City and could be a massive game for Paul Sturrock's side. If they make it though, a large crowd behind them at Hillsborough could prove crucial in the playoffs themselves.

Hartlepool United
Current Situation: 5th Place, 67 points, 4 games left

We're not exactly in the best of form ourselves, although we have at least gone four games unbeaten. While most eyes are on Friday's game with Wednesday, and the final game of the season with Bournemouth, the other two games are still crucial - win against Doncaster and Walsall, and a draw in one of the other two games could be enough.

AFC Bournemouth
Current Situation: 6th Place, 66 points, 4 games left

Their home form is currently dire - four defeats on the trot - but with away games at two sides going nowhere in Chesterfield and Bradford, coupled with a home game with Peterborough (who could well be relegated by then) they will fancy their chances of improving their position. It could make for a nervous time all round on the last day of the season.

Brentford
Current Situation: 7th Place, 66 points, 6 games left

With games in hand and recent form not too bad the Bees definately fancy their chances. However they have a hard run-in and will do well to maintain their form: they have to play all of the top three, playoff outsiders Huddersfield and the battling against relegation Wrexham. This week's game against Tranmere will show how much is left in the tank - but they are still far and away the most likely side to displace one of the sides currently in the top six.

Huddersfield Town
Current Situation: 8th Place, 60 points, 4 games left

Not so long ago they looked set for a comfortable mid-table finish; but five wins on the spin have propelled them to the edge of the playoff race. Even winning all of their remaining games might not be enough - but it's not out of the question. Home games against Colchester and Swindon need to be won, but it's the away game at Brentford on the 23rd that could make or break their chances. They're coming up on the rails much as we did last season - but I fear they may have left it a little bit too late.

Bristol City
Current Situation: 9th Place, 59 points, 5 games left

If they manage to win all five games remaining then they have a chance - but anything less and it's probably another disappointment. Counting against them are their lack of consistency, lack of form (currently two defeats in a row), and the fact that three of their fixtures are away from home.

So who's in and who's out? I really can't see Huddersfield or Bristol City making it - they simply have too much ground to make up and are relying on other teams doing them favours. That makes it perm three from four: Sheffield Wedensday, ourselves, Bournemouth and Brentford. With only two points separating us all, it really is too close to call. Wednesday have the points but no form; Brentford have the games in hand but a poor goal difference that means they need to get more points than the teams above them; Pools and Bournemouth need to pick up points from their games against the lesser sides, which neither have been too impressive at of late. I think 73 points is likely to be the target - for Pools, two wins and a draw.

Down to the wire then? Well unless one of the four of us blows it completely and loses three in a row then yes. It's entirely possible that there will still be three playoff spots up for grabs come the last day - and this time, a draw might not be enough for both Pools and Bournemouth to make the grade. Of course, if we win our next three games we could well be sitting pretty - but I think that a lot of people will have no fingernails left before the end of play on 7th May.