The top 4 run-in

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Hopefully Wasps won't need a result against us and rest a few for the play offs.

Quins will bounce back at some point. Would suit the Falcons if it is next week.

It's such a difficult league to predict. Worcester beat Exeter then lose at Irish, Leicester get 5 pointer at Sarries but seem very Jekyll and Hyde this season and were in good form and a match for anyone when it goes to plan.

At a guess 4 wins would see us in the play offs which would be excellent but I'd probably take 5th if offered now, end the season on a high and genuine expectations for further improvement next season.

There’s a prediction table on the Worcester board and it has us getting 59 points. It was a little bit earlier so we can add the points from Exeter and Quins etc on to it.

If that prediction came through and it looks reasonable, we would get 69 points.

I hope the chaps margin of error has already been done.

Fifth would suit me fine. Top six was my target. Playoffs are fantasy land. But who knows?

I think top six is enough for this season especially as we have the two cup games to consider. I fancy a weekend in Bilbao.

I agree with dickg, at start of season I’d have said top 4 is fantasy land and I’d be delighted with top 6.

However now we occupy 4th, I’m going to be disappointed with anything less than a home semi...

I'd have bitten your hand off for top 6 at the start of the season. I'd still be delighted with this even if we limp across the finish line. Champions Cup Rugby is key for,the club and region.

Being a perfect pessimistic I will put that aside! Falcs are on a roll and hopefully momentum will see a good end to the season, and a top four finish! One can dream!

Realistically i think i would take top 6. One game at a time, and we need to deal with gloucester at their place this weekend. If we win this weekend i think ww will hit top 4. It would be a remarkable achievement.

Weirdly I think you have significantly overestimated Bath's form. I don't see them beating Glaws away or Tigers at HQ. I really wouldn't be surprised if they ended up 7th. I reckon Tigers have sadly found form and see them sneaking 4th. I think it will come down to us and Glaws as to who ends up in 5 and 6 though that will probably come down to the final day.

I honestly see Tigers at about 65. I think we may make 62 to 65 - we could even end up 5th on points difference. Glaws on 63, and Bath on 58.

In any event, what a season this has been. I remember celebrating that away win at Glos- the first in ages. How far we've come.

Newcastle
Gloucester (A) – 1 points (the biggest game of the season) knowing is it will be 0 points?
Northampton (H) – 4 points
Worcester (A) – 4 points
Sale (H) – 5 points
Leicester (A) – 0 points
Wasps (H) – 4 points
After 16 games: 46 points
Final total: 64 points

Bath
Harlequins (A) – 4 points
Exeter (H) – 1 point
Leicester (H, Twickenham) – 1 points
Saracens (A) – 0 points
Gloucester (A) – 1 points
London Irish (H) – 5 points
After 16 games: 45 points
Final total: 57 points

 
Gloucester
Newcastle (H) – 4 points
London Irish (A) – 5 points
Exeter (A) – 0 points
Harlequins (H) – 5 points
Bath (H) – 4 point
Saracens (A) – 0 point
After 16 games: 44 points
Final total: 61 points

Leicester
Worcester (A) – 4 points
Wasps (H) – 1 points
Bath (A, Twickenham) – 4 point
Northampton (H) – 4 points
Newcastle (H) – 4 points
Sale (A) – 4 points
After 16 games: 42 points
Final total: 63 points

Final table, 3rd-7th
4 Newcastle 64 points
5 Leicester 63 points
7 Gloucester 62 points
7 Bath 57 points


I’ve got a feeling that Leicester might just sneak that 4th place. I think we both may finish on 64 and the same wins, meaning points difference is needed and they take 4th.

The only thing I do know is come 16:45 on Saturday we will know one way or the other where we stand after this massive fixture. The dream may be still alive it may be dead I can’t wait to find out.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2018:02:28:14:28:00 by alnwickfalcon.

You can't have Glos vs Falcons ending in a loss for both sides.

Also we shouldn't underestimate the importance of the sale game. They are bloody good at the moment. Tough with a back row that can match up to ours. De klerk makes them tick and i would say we need to target that game along with this weekend. Hopefully wasps will be home and dry last game of the season!

I have a recollection of Jason Robinson in his later days skipping past and through our defence from halfway and getting almost home.

Denny Solomona reminds me of him in that way and the Aale game is a big threat as far as I can see

I have two recollections of Mathew Tait for us against Sale.

Once he ran through Jason Robinson, the other he ran around Jason Robinson.

Goneva and Sinoti...

Neither of those boys are playing. That is the MUST win. They'll be gunning for us after we sneaked home at their gaff early season. Solomona is on fire. De klerk is a pest and a clever game manager and i just think the chemistry of the sides will make for a very close game indeed.

Quote:

There's 35 seconds to go
I have two recollections of Mathew Tait for us against Sale.
Once he ran through Jason Robinson, the other he ran around Jason Robinson.

I had forgotten about that, it was something to behold. Thanks for the memory 35s.

Quote:

Monkey1

Quote:

There's 35 seconds to go
I have two recollections of Mathew Tait for us against Sale.
Once he ran through Jason Robinson, the other he ran around Jason Robinson.

I had forgotten about that, it was something to behold. Thanks for the memory 35s.

I also have recollections of a monster crunching tackle by Jamie Noon on Jason Robinson..... never saw him coming

I hope our defence will carry the day. We are difficult to score against now. Brilliant as Wasps are they are vulnerable defensively and can't see Gloucester cutting us up as easily as they did with Wasps.
I think we've shown over the last two months especially that our defence is solid. We have actually built our game on defence rather than the other way round. Even Toby Flood is playing like a flanker making a nuisance of himself. I can't even remember the last time anyone put a 4 try bonus point on us. I think that was Exeter, and we also scored 4 ourselves if I'm not mistaken.
Considering we've given all comers a game we can go to Kingsholm confident in our own game plan. We're no longer just playing for damage limitation.

It's a good job the players have more faith in their abilities than we supporters do. I am still not used to us doing so well, and confronted with a game at Gloucester I still feel fear instead of confidence. Our season is played 16, won 10, and it takes some getting used to.

On the plus side, when we keep winning it comes as an unexpected surprise & I feel great.

I am struggling with the concept of us discussing top 4/6 finishes as well but it's great!

Quote:

alas
You can't have Glos vs Falcons ending in a loss for both sides.

Edited the above post to reflect the Gloucester win.

It must have been a long day and I got excited.

I am only worried about gloucester because, like us, they are well organised and consistent. Last season's version would be a very different story. We have built our season on not taking anything for granted and being humble. People are right about defence, but it is actually just about an intense work rate and huge physical committment. I hope that continues.

Anyone wanting to watch Toon v Arsenal that weekend will have to miss the Sale game as the former is now a 13.30 kickoff on the Sunday, thanks to Sky.
That includes me. B*ll*cks

Is the Sale game not on the Friday night?

Sale game is Friday 13th April.

Newcastle v Arsenal is Sunday 15th April.

You can relax KP.

I had the same worry when it was listed as sat the 14th. We have tickets to The Sooty Show that day.

Sooty must be a fair age by now, you have to respect his work ethic. You can't keep an old trouper down.

Looking at our run in, there is no reason why we couldn't win all them games, with the form we have had of late and barring no serious injuries. Easy top 4 finish.

It is not quite as easy as you think, Gloucester and Leicester are also striving for the play-offs, both will be difficult games. However it's great that we are in contention.

Quote:

A tramp abroad
It is not quite as easy as you think, Gloucester and Leicester are also striving for the play-offs, both will be difficult games.....

You could deduce from that statement that Leicester & Glos would otherwise roll over and let us tickle their tummies.

Despite the opinions of some opposition supporters, we have already won some tough games this season. Logic suggests that it was unlikely that all ten of those wins were against teams who were missing players, off form, couldn't give a toss. and were helped by the referee. I may be wrong of course, in which case there is no reason to assume that this amazing run of luck should come to an end. It is also possible that we are capable of beating strong & capable teams, in which case our remaining games are no different.

Quote:

Monkey1

Quote:

A tramp abroad
It is not quite as easy as you think, Gloucester and Leicester are also striving for the play-offs, both will be difficult games.....

You could deduce from that statement that Leicester & Glos would otherwise roll over and let us tickle their tummies.

Despite the opinions of some opposition supporters, we have already won some tough games this season. Logic suggests that it was unlikely that all ten of those wins were against teams who were missing players, off form, couldn't give a toss. and were helped by the referee. I may be wrong of course, in which case there is no reason to assume that this amazing run of luck should come to an end. It is also possible that we are capable of beating strong & capable teams, in which case our remaining games are no different.

Not sure how you reach that conclusion from my comment. Clearly we are a good team and have achieved excellent results against other strong teams. My point is that Gloucester and Leicester are also good teams, we have the ability to beat them but let's not kid ourselves that it will be easy.

Quote:

Monkey1
Sooty must be a fair age by now, you have to respect his work ethic. You can't keep an old trouper down.

Indeed and you'd hardly know it to look at him and same for Sweep and Soo. No Matthew anymore though, Richard nowadays.