ZPSF Preview: Wasps to Stay on Course

For Dowdy
By Peter Snow's Swingometer
May 16 2004

London Wasps host Northampton Saints in the Zurich Premiership playoff semi-final for the second year running. This format has still to convince pundits and punters alike and this game is not a sell-out, unlike the league fixture just six weeks ago.

Perhaps if there was a league trophy as well as the grand final pot up for grabs then the playoffs would swing much higher in attendance and impact. That said, both teams will be going hammer and tongs at each other as each team seeks a Twickenham showdown against Bath.

Last season Northampton's focus was more diffuse -- a Heineken Cup place was deemed a sufficient reward for their season's endeavours. Finishing third in the Zurich Premiership was an afterthought gained at the behest of Sale's tragic collapse in the final furlong at the hands of ourselves and Saracens.

So Saints will be ready this time round, make no mistake. On the other hand, pundits and punters may well believe that London Wasps' focus is solely on the Heineken Cup final next weekend, given our two recent reverses. Northampton shall make no such analysis.

Warren Gatland also knows full-well that one can take nothing for granted. Wasps are not shoo-ins for another Zurich Championship even if we shall never have a better opportunity to win a double of doubles. Leicester Tigers would not aim for less. Neither shall Wasps.

Events off the field might seem to have drawn the eye away from the run-up to this weekend's game. Was it all stage managed to un-nerve us? No sooner had Paul Grayson announced his retirement from a World Cup-winning, international career than his long-time half-back partner, Matt Dawson, had grabbed back a piece of the limelight by setting the rumour mill grinding.

It seems he wants to concentrate on his media portfolio (the BBC's "A Question of Sport" for one thing) and has had talks with Wasps, amongst other London clubs. As it happens, Rob Howley needs time off for an operation on his wrist so a fit with Wasps might suit Daws. He may end up back in High Wycombe, where another Saintly leaver, retiree Nick Beal schooled too. The Daws situation has actually been doing the rounds for two months now and anyway, the poor lad isn't even fit to play against Wasps, according to Saints!

All this may keep the presses rolling and the supporters tongues wagging, but neither squad will be taking any notice of off the field stories. We can discount any spin-doctoring as flim-flam. What the business end of the season really boils down to are a couple or three huge games for the players. 22 rounds of Zurich Premiership games, several more cup matches and, for a good half-a-dozen and more on show at the Causeway Stadium, the World Cup finals will fade from their memories. This season boils down to silverware and a Twickenham final (or two).

The old swingometer reckons we should get back to basics: the results from the last two weeks show two losses for Wasps and two wins for Saints. However, don't draw any conclusion from this short-term trend.

Wasps let their guards down after the big win over Munster in the Heineken Cup. In reality the chance of finishing in first position slipped away on the Kingsholm mud and we did well to claim a losing bonus-point. Tigers were given the platform to win last weekend through some good fortune (think forward pass for their second try) and a lack of yellow cards. Come the second half, Wasps minds were not at the races whereas Leicester were thinking Heineken.

Unprofessional of Wasps? Yes, but precisely the same second-half trough hit Saints as they almost allowed Quins to turn round a 13-point deficit at Franklins Gardens at the same time as Gloucester's demise at Bath became apparent. The play-offs are an artifice, whatever the organisers say. Teams will take their feet off the gas.

The only way to view this game is as a one-off. Saints have their strongest team available, save for the shuffling of Ben Cohen into the centres. One can view this as a weakness and a strength. Cohen may get bogged down in Wasps rush defence, or, he could look to counter from our narrow-side turnover ball to outflank us, as Gloucester and Leicester made capital. Wasps have been working on this aspect of defence. If Cohen escapes, he could be the key to an upset.

Paul Grayson resumes at stand-off instead of Shane Drahm. The re-invented Grayson has experience in abundance but his lack of pace may play into Paul Volley's hands. There again, his kicking game will be another key. If Wasps transgress as in previous weeks, penalty goals could kill us, as in 2000 when Grayson dumped us out of a Heineken Cup quarter final.

We got our revenge in the Tetley's Bitter Cup final weeks later, though. Saints' Chairman Keith Barwell's out-of-context quotation of Wasps' "iffiness" spurred us on to a 31-23 win in the sun at Twickenham. We had also beaten them by a cricket score as Northampton eyed their own Heineken Cup prize that year. The swingometer points to a battle royal today and Wasps shall not be found wanting. Wasps by three.

London Wasps: 15 Mark Van Gisbergen; 14 Josh Lewsey, 13 Fraser Waters, 12 Stuart Abbott, 11 Tom Voyce; 10 Alex King, 9 Rob Howley; 1 Tim Payne, 2 Trevor Leota, 3 Will Green, 4 Simon Shaw, 5 Richard Birkett, 6 Joe Worsley, 7 Paul Volley, 8 Lawrence Dallaglio (Capt.)

Bench: 16 Henry Nwume, 17 Mark Lock, 18 Ben Gotting, 19 Martin Purdy, 20 Peter Richards, 21 Mark Denney, 22 Ayoola Erinle.

Northampton sAINTS: 15 Bruce Reihana; 14 Nick Beal, 13 Ben Cohen, 12 Mark Tucker, 11 John Clarke; 10 Paul Grayson, 9 Mark Robinson; 1 Tom Smith, 2 Steve Thompson, 3 Tevita Taumoepeau, 4 Matt Lord, 5 Mark Connors, 6 Andrew Blowers, 7 Darren Fox, 8 Grant Seely

Bench: 16 Dan Richmond, 17 Robbie Morris, 18 Jon Phillips, 19 Mark Soden, 20 Johnny Howard, 21 John Leslie, 22 Shane Drahm.