Grow Grow Grow

By BrianC
October 27 2004

With a third of the 2004/5 Zurich Premiership season now behind us and a break whilst European games are played I felt this was as good a time as any to look at the crowd figures so far.

Whither Rugby? - 2004/5

Those who are new to this series may be interested in the Complete Whither Rugby articles, first published last May/June. In particular I feel it is important to understand the rationale behind the figures. This I have covered in some detail in the article The Figures Explained.

Grow Grow Grow  

The start of the 2004/5 season has been characterised by unprecedented season on season growth. In the first seven rounds of this season 411k people have attended the 42 games. The same period last season saw 320k watch the same number of matches. This is an incredible 28% growth on the 2003/4 season.

There appear to be a number of factors behind this growth. As is clearly demonstrated by the above graph the London Double Header, in its inaugural year, had a significant impact on the round one figures. The concept was conceived by Premier Rugby in conjunction with the four 'London' based clubs. On the first day of this season fifty one thousand spectators were attracted to Twickenham to watch two games, London Irish vs Harlequins and Saracens vs Wasps. Had the two games been played separately at the respective home venues the total crowd would have been in the region of 15k.

The new kids on the Premiership block, Worcester, have made a significant impact. After four home games their average gate is 7571. Their predecessor, Rotherham, averaged gates of 3205 in the 2003/4 season. Just as the Worcester performances on field have been stronger than those of Rotherham the off field success is clear to see.

Ground capacity, or rather lack of it, continues to be the major challenge facing club rugby union in the professional era. The 2004/5 season has seen capacity increases at Bath(+500), Gloucester(+2000) and Harlequins(+1500). In all three of these cases the extra capacity limits have already been hit such is the latent demand. Capacity crowds have also already been recorded at Leicester, Northampton, Wasps and Worcester. Given that the Autumn period is traditionally the quietest, capacity problems look set to grow as the season develops.

Whilst it is difficult to quantify, few would dispute that there is a Rugby World Cup factor at work here. This most likely has manifested itself in two differing ways. This season extra crowds have been attracted thanks in part to the raised profile of the sport. It is also arguable that the crowds in the equivalent period last season were somewhat reduced as the stars were on international call up and the attraction of the domestic game was somewhat diminished.  Whilst I have not yet had the opportunity to look in detail at the round by round figures for seasons prior to 2003/4 it appears from a brief look at the figures that the impact latter of these arguments is not huge, perhaps a couple of percentage points.

Given the season thus far and the factors outlined above I am now projecting overall growth this season of 20% on last. Should this be the case we will see average Zurich Premiership crowds top 10k this season. Crowds at domestic club rugby will have grown by 66% in the first half of this decade. Quite a remarkable achievement by any standard. 

I'll hazard a few personal observations based on the above figures: 

 - After some years of decline crowd numbers first rallied then surged after the 1999 World Cup. Given England's success in 2003 we could well be at the start of an even greater spurt of growth.

- The nadir as far as English clubs in the professional era were concerned was the 99/00 season. As well as a RWC season this was also the one that English clubs, for a variety of reasons chose not to take part in the Heineken Cup, a concept that would be inconceivable now. Whilst these figure are only for Zurich games one does wonder if the lack of top flight European competition that season has an impact on the domestic crowds. 

- In my original 'Whither Rugby?' series of articles I forecast that a number of clubs, most notably Bath and Harlequins, would be forced to move by the end of the decade due to ground restraints. The initial figures for this season have reinforced my belief of this.

It is as yet too early to look in any great detail at the gates of the individual clubs. Where capacity has allowed increases are across the board. Of those established clubs the ones that particularly catch the eye are Wasps with average gates currently 50% up on the same period last season and Newcastle who are up 34% despite a substantial increase in ticket prices.

Our sport is thriving. This is something to be glad of but, as supporters, we should also be aware of the challenges such growth brings. Thus far we appear to have managed this influx of new support without any of the attendant crowd problems that have dogged the round ball game. There is still very much a 'family' atmosphere amongst supporters. The trick, as it has been, will be to maintain that in the face of ever increasing support.