'Whither Rugby?' 05/06 - How did I do?

By BrianC
June 14 2006

When I started this series three years ago I tried to avoid making any predictions. Instead I published projections, a straightforward mathematical calculation of past growth into the future.

Several people however decided that these were actually my predictions. To counter this perception last season I decided to bite the bullet so to speak and published a set of my own predictions alongside the mathematical projections. How did I do? I'll let you decide. The percentage figure, to one decimal point, next to the actual figure indicates how much my prediction was out.

Bath

Last season I wrote that there would be 11 capacity crowds and that the only variable factor was the amount of temporary seating. So it proved to be.

Bristol

Bristol's gates have really surprised me this season. It appears that off-field at least relegation may have been good for them. In my defence last year I wrote "If they do well they could surprise us all." So it has proved to be.

Gloucester

The drop in Gloucester's home crowds must be some concern to the cherry and whites. It was certainly a surprise to me.

Harlequins

Proof again that there is life after relegation. Quins look set to bounce back into the Premiership in rude good health. With the help of ground expansion at The Stoop their ND1 figure was even higher than that in the Premiership.

Leeds

The one occasion where the mathematical projection is more accurate than the pundit. Leeds did well growing their crowds, it is a shame to lose them from the top flight.

Leicester

You didn't need to be a rocket scientist to predict that Leicester would average 16,815 in their league games. This they did. What caused their figures to vary slightly from my prediction was their championship game. This attracted a crowd of 'only' 14k.

London Irish

AlecW and JamesC are both a tenner richer as a result of us having a higher gate this season than last. Dutch Bird won a much more expensive bottle of champagne by challenging my pessimism. That said, I dread to think what the average gate would have been if the team hadn't played out of their skins this season.

Newcastle

More than any other club in the country Newcastle's gates are influenced by one man, Johnny Wilkinson. His continued long absence through injury hit their gates. It also strikes me that steep price increases introduced two years ago were still affecting numbers this season.

Northampton

As predicted the extra ground capacity at Franklin's Gardens was quickly swallowed up by latent demand. This despite the fact that for much of the season Saints languished in the lower half of the table.

Sale

Last summer Sale reported that season ticket sales were 70% up on the previous season so continued strong growth seemed likely, this has indeed happened.

Saracens

After a long period of decline Saracens at last seem to have gates heading in the right direction. Let's hope they can maintain some momentum.

Wasps

If you need evidence to argue that success on field does not necessarily attract larger crowds then here it is. The four times champions saw a drop in crowds last season.

Worcester

The extra capacity added to Sixways this season was quickly swallowed up. Those additional spectators watched a Worcester side who appear to be settling into Premiership life comfortably.

The Guinness Premiership - Inaugural Year

Overall I expected gates last season to be static or to perhaps even show a slight drop on 04/05. In the end there was growth of 4.5%. The surprise package of the season for me were Bristol who have bounced back from their two years in ND1 looking much stronger than the team that was relegated.

We will continue this series looking at the clubs one by one. The first club we look at is the one where my predictions were most out, Bristol.