Relegation Roadmap: Round 14

By Quaking Quin
January 30 2007

Deano targets a top 6 GP finish but a stop-start performance means a frustrated Quins leave the Rec without any vital league points despite a spirited second half effort.

Predicted Total Points after Bath: 41
Predicted Finish Position after Bath: 11th
Target remains at 11^th spot because no points were originally expected from the away-day at Bath.

Quins needed points out of this game if the club were to achieve the DOR’s ambition of a top six finish and Heineken Cup qualification. A poor first half left the team too much to do in the second 40 minutes – even against a team in a lower position in the GP.

Relegation remains a remote threat with Quins only needing 2 more wins out of their remaining 8 games to guarantee safety. Wuzz on the other hand must win 6 out of 8 but looking at their fixture list, at best, they only seem capable of winning 4. The point of interest for league watchers is whether Wuzz can overhaul Northampton who are in freefall and also look hard-pushed to win the 4 games necessary to stay out of 12^th spot.

For those of you who like to predict the relegation outcome the Wuzz ‘Sixwaysrugby’ site is worth a look because it has under a ’Suvival’ page the usual end of season breakdown of matches for the bottom 6 likely candidates (sixwaysrugby.co.uk). Needless to say, the Wuzz fan who compiled the spreadsheet completely under-estimates Quins’ ability to win games. There is, however, grudging recognition that the Warriors are probably going to finish bottom - but they’ve been resigned to that fate for a long while.

So, with our DOR raising expectations for a grandstand GP finish not being matched with application on the pitch, what is now needed:

To finish in the top 6 Quins need to get around 54 points. That is 11 wins and 10 bonus points.

To finish in 11^th Quins need 40 points – 8 wins and 10 bonus points (7 home wins + 1 away)

Yesterday’s game was, therefore, a very, very big opportunity missed in picking up one of the 3 extra wins.

The game against Northampton now has major implications. Anything other than a win against the Saints means the club can kiss goodbye to the hope of a HC place next season because it will not be possible to win 5 of our remaining 8 games remembering that six are against the existing top 6 clubs. A defeat could put Quins right back in the relegation dogfight.

See you all at Franklin Gardens……………..

Deano’s business plan for 06/07 is: