Relegation Roadmap: Round 16
By Quaking Quin
February 27 2007
Quins reach the magic 8 wins with another committed and gritty performance to blow away any lingering relegation doubts and a loss of form for several of the leading clubs leaves some very interesting permutations for the Heineken Cup and play-off places.
Predicted Total Points after Bristol: 45 (originally 40pts for 11th place)
Predicted Finish Position after Bristol: 8th
Our DOR could afford himself a slight satisfied smile after the Bristol game because he has achieved his first target for the season – even if the eight wins leaves us on the unforgettable total of 38 points in the league. The big difference this time round is that there are still 6 games left and poor old Wuzz are on the brink of falling through the ND1 trap door with both Saints and the Falcons also pulling out surprise results on Saturday. The Warriors now need to win 5 of their remaining games to have any hope of survival.
So, with tongue firmly placed in his cheek Deano told the press at the post match gathering that ‘I am not looking at where we finish the season – it’s quality of performance, collectively or individually, which is important and that is what we look for.’ Well pull the other one – our Director of Rugby wants a top 6 finish badly and doesn’t care how well performances justify the points, just as long as he gets them.
But let’s not move too far ahead of ourselves. After the last two performances anything seems possible, however, it is the international period when Quins traditionally do well. The important difference, particularly over the passed few matches, is the greater consistency in team selection, a growing confidence amongst the players, a dogged determination and intensity over the full 80 minutes, and some very impressive performances from key players.
What will Deano now be telling the boys? Firstly, he will say he always expected a win from the home game against Bristol and at present the team can still only expect to finish in 8th place unless they find something extra from the remaining six games.
With only the Irish visit to the Stoop as a banker in his roadmap Quins must get 2 additional wins from their other five games to reach the 11 wins and 52-54 points needed for 6th place in the GP (and Heineken qualification). With the other two home games being against Wasps and Sale the target is not impossible if Quins can continue their current rich vein of form but both these clubs will also want something from the season and will themselves have targeted the trip to the Stoop as 4-pointers.
So, dare we think the unthinkable?
To finish in the top 4 we are looking at 13 wins in total and 10 bonus points to give a season’s total of 62 points. This means Quins not only having to make the Stoop a fortress but also win two of the remaining three away games against Tigers, Glaws and Sarries. In Vixen’s immortal words……….’erm’.
In a nutshell: win 3 out of 6 – probable HC slot. Win 5 out 6 – possible play-off slot.
An interesting end to the season still awaits us ………..
Deano’s roadmap for 06/07 started as:
| Game | Date | Venue | Prediction | Actual Points Gained |
GP Total | Predicted finishing place (Target – 11th) |
|
| 1 | Irish | 02/09/06 | a | Close defeat (1bp) | 1 | 1 | 11th |
| 2 | Glaws | 09/09/07 | h | Loss (0) | 0 | 1 | 11th |
| 3 | Wasps | 17/09/06 | a | Loss (0) | 0 | 1 | 11th |
| 4 | Tigers | 23/09/06 | h | Loss (0) | 1 | 2 | (1pt gain) 11th |
| 5 | Bristol | 15/10/06 | a | Close defeat (1bp) | 0 | 2 | (1pt loss) 11th |
| 6 | Saints | 04/11/06 | h | Win only (4pts) | 5 | 7 | (1pt gain) 11th |
| 7 | Falcons | 10/11/06 | a | Close defeat (1bp) | 4 | 11 | (3pt gain) 9th |
| 8 | Wuzz | 17/11/06 | h | Win + try bp (5) | 4 | 15 | (1pt loss) 10th |
| 9 | Sale | 24/11/06 | a | Loss (0) | 1 | 16 | (1pt gain) 10th |
| 10 | Sarries | 22/12/06 | h | Win only (4pts) | 1 | 17 | (3pt loss) 11th |
| 11 | Wuzz | 27/12/06 | a | Win only (4pts) | 4 | 21 | 11th |
| Halfway | 20 | 21 | One point extra not quite enough to move any higher in league | ||||
| 12 | Falcons | 01/01/07 | h | Win + try bp (5) | 5 | 26 | 11th |
| 13 | Bath | 06/01/07 | h | Win only (4pts) | 4 | 30 | 11th |
| 14 | Bath | 27/01/07 | a | Loss (0) | 0 | 30 | 11th |
| 15 | Saints | 17/02/07 | a | Loss (0) | 4 | 34 | 8th (4pt gain – and 5 up on original target) |
| 16 | Bristol | 24/02/07 | h | Win only (4pts) | 4 | 38 | 8th |
| 17 | Tigers | 03/03/07 | a | Loss (0) | |||
| 18 | Wasps | 10/03/07 | h | Close defeat (1bp) | |||
| 19 | Glaws | 17/03/07 | a | Loss (0) | |||
| 20 | Irish | 07/04/07 | h | Win only (4pts) | |||
| 21 | Sarries | 15/04/07 | a | Close defeat (1bp) | |||
| 22 | Sale | 28/04/07 | h | Close defeat (1bp) | |||
| 40 points Total | |||||||