Play-off Roadmap: Round 15 Review
By Quaking Quin
March 6 2008
After the gloom & doom that marked the end of the old year 2 unexpected, though richly deserved, victories have suddenly brought Quins’ season back to life & put a spring in everyone’s step. With relegation thoughts a thing of the past it is perhaps the right time to review what is now possible, what needs to be done over a difficult final quarter & try to image what seemed impossible a month ago.
Quins now have 40 points and are very handily placed in 5th place in the GP just one point behind Sale in 4th but with Sarries, Wasps and Irish within striking distance on our tails.
So what is needed:
The Gloucester game was notable for a number of reasons, and not just the performance or the result. The table below shows that Quins have reached the first magic stage in the Holy Grail that is the Guinness Premiership – they have reached the 40 point threshold that makes certain top tier status for next season.
So what exactly is possible with 5 of our remaining matches away from home? After beating Glaws and 3 back to back victories it is easy to think ‘anything’.
The table shows that if we are to finish 6th we need to win all three remaining home games (Bath, Falcons and Sale) not particularly easy when you think Bath and Sale are major rivals for the top positions. We also need to win one away game, which sticks out as the trip to Leeds. Those wins, plus the bonus extras need to get us to 52 points and the prospect of Quins winning half their games in a season – something they have never managed in the history of the 12 team premiership.
What more has to be done to think of play-off places?
The answer is simple – Quins have to win two more games away from home. The table suggests we have missed the opportunity earlier in the season when we should have come away from both Newcastle and Stockport with at least 4 points. However, there are 3 games where we can make up ground and think the unthinkable – firstly Wasps this weekend, who will be depleted with the 6N’s, secondly, Bristol because they are having a poor season (but will AJ play?, if it’s Molly then who knows) and Irish (yes Thames Valley Harriers: the Madstad, 25,000 pints of Guinness, riverdance and those endless drums).
The more I think about it, the more I think we are in with a shout.
Our DOR is as always coy about our prospects. When asked about a top four finish after the Worcester game he simply said something along the line that his target was to do better than last season’s 7th slot. In the press conference after the Glaws game he was asked if he thought Quins could finish in the top spot – I think the only reaction was a slight twitch on one side of Deano’s month.
Well, we do have a season – and as I said after Round 1 – exciting times.
| GP Roadmap Table: | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Game | Date | 11th Place | 6th place | 4th Place | 1st Place | Actual Points |
|||||
| Pts | Total | Pts | Total | Pts | Total | Pts | Total | |||||
| 1 | Irish | 15/09/07 | h | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5(4th) |
| 2 | Leeds | 22/09/07 | h | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 10(2nd) |
| 3 | Falcons | 29/09/07 | a | 1 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 11(3rd) |
| 4 | Bristol | 06/10/07 | h | 1 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 15(2nd) |
| 5 | Bath | 13/10/07 | a | 0 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 21 | 15(4th) |
| 6 | Wasps | 20/10/07 | h | 4 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 25 | 19(4th) |
| 7 | Glaws | 24/11/07 | a | 0 | 15 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 25 | 21(5th) |
| 8 | Sarries | 22/12/07 | h | 1 | 16 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 26 | 4 | 29 | 22(6th) |
| 9 | Wuzz | 29/12/07 | a | 1 | 17 | 4 | 27 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 34 | 26(6th) |
| 10 | Tigers | 05/01/08 | h | 1 | 18 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 31 | 4 | 38 | 26(6th) |
| 11 | Sale | 25/01/08 | a | 1 | 19 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 42 | 27(6th) |
| Halfway | 19 | 29 | 35 | 42 | 27(6th) | |||||||
| 12 | Wuzz | 16/02/08 | h | 5 | 24 | 5 | 34 | 5 | 40 | 5 | 47 | 32(6th) |
| 13 | Sarries | 24/02/08 | a | 0 | 24 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 48 | 36(6th) |
| 14 | Glaws | 01/03/08 | h | 0 | 24 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 52 | 40(5th) |
| 15 | Wasps | 09/03/08 | a | 0 | 24 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 53 | |
| 16 | Bath | 16/03/08 | h | 4 | 28 | 4 | 38 | 4 | 46 | 4 | 57 | |
| 17 | Bristol | 23/03/08 | a | 0 | 28 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 58 | |
| 18 | Falcon | 29/03/08 | h | 4 | 32 | 4 | 42 | 5 | 51 | 5 | 63 | |
| 19 | Leeds | 13/04/08 | a | 4 | 36 | 4 | 46 | 5 | 56 | 5 | 68 | |
| 20 | Irish | 19/05/08 | a | 0 | 36 | 1 | 47 | 1 | 57 | 1 | 69 | |
| 21 | Sale | 04/04/08 | h | 4 | 40 | 5 | 52 | 5 | 62 | 5 | 74 | |
| 22 | Tigers | 10/04/08 | a | 0 | 40 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 74 | |
| Final Total | 40 | 52 | 62 | 74 | ||||||||
I enjoy this sort of analysis. Intelligent, positive, and well presented.
4th place looks achieveable, shame we've got so many away matches still to play
Let's hope the lads can keep the momentum going.