Some random musings: What's happened this season?
By Prof
November 6 2009
This season just doesn’t seem to have the same excitement about the way teams are playing as it did last year. There is a real feeling that the game has stagnated. Could it just be a hangover of the happenings at Quins this summer – you could think that but it seems to be effecting all clubs not just us.
There have been a lot more low scoring games with fewer tries scored and more draws.
Could it be down to a hangover from the Lions Tour – again it is possible and it seems that it’s not just the Guinness Premiership that is having these problems but in the other home nations too.
Could it be our squad compared to last year’s – again a possibility but with the exception of losing Mike Ross (and the more recent loss of Gary Botha) I think our squad is as good if not better than last season.
Could it be down to the change in laws again? Well some of the more annoying laws (legally collapsing the maul) have gone and this should allow the maul to be the attacking option it once was, it should either give a team the chance to make yards or force the defending team to put more forwards in to defend it meaning there should be more space elsewhere to attack, but this hasn’t happened.
It even feels like there is less aimless kicking down the field than last season (or perhaps we are just used to it now).
If we look at the Premiership games we have played this season and look at the corresponding fixtures last season we can see that we are not that far behind, at least on the results:
| Last Season | This Season | |
|---|---|---|
| Wasps A | L (TF:2 TA:2) | L (TF:2 TA:3) |
| Leicester H | D (TF:2 TA:2) | L (TF:0 TA:0) |
| Saracens H | W (TF:2 TA:2) | L (TF:0 TA:1) |
| Newcastle A | L (TF:1 TA:2) | D (TF:1 TA:2) |
| Bath H | W (TF:2 TA:1) | W (TF:1 TA:1) |
| Worcester A | W (TF:4 TA:2) | W (TF:2 TA:1) |
| London Irish H | L (TF:3 TA:3) | D (TF:0 TA:0) |
| TOTAL | W:3, D:1, L:3 (TF:16 TA:14) | W:2, D:2, L:3 (TF:6 TA:8) |
| After 7 games | 6th 20 points (2WBP,2LBP) | 8th 13 points (1LBP) |
So looking at the 6 games we have played this season we have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3, in the same fixtures last season we had won one more and drawn one less. So perhaps it’s not as bad as it feels.
You could even say that our defence is faring better with just 8 tries scored against us compared to the 14 last season, however this is more than overshadowed by the disappointing 6 tries in 7 games this season compared to the 16 we scored in the same fixtures last season.
If we just look at the first 7 GP games from last season we had won 4 and lost 3 and had 20 points, we’re 7 points and 2 league positions behind that this season.
So fewer tries are being scored both by and against us – why is this?
Defences cancelling each other out – perhaps, but that’s a simple answer. I don’t even think it is the correct answer, it feels to me that players are just making more mistakes, it really does seem that there are more knock-ons, passes into touch, turnovers, dropped balls than ever before – many of them unforced too – again this could just be my perception rather than statistical reality but it certainly feels that way.
Could it be down to changes in the team and a lack of continuity? Well if we look at the players in the starting XV of the first 9 games (excluding last year’s EDF matches).
Some stats…
| 2008 | 2009 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Appearances | Player | Appearances |
| Jones |
9
|
Jones |
9
|
| JTH |
9
|
Robshaw |
9
|
| Kohn |
9
|
Strettle |
9
|
| Ross |
9
|
Evans N |
8
|
| Brown |
8
|
Easter |
7
|
| Robshaw |
8
|
Monye |
7
|
| Skinner |
8
|
Skinner |
7
|
| Care |
7
|
Care |
6
|
| Monye |
7
|
Evans J |
6
|
| Botha |
6
|
Lambert |
6
|
| Evans J |
6
|
Masson |
6
|
| Malone |
6
|
Stevenson |
6
|
| Tiesi |
6
|
Botha |
5
|
| Easter |
5
|
Brown |
5
|
| Guest |
5
|
Tiesi |
5
|
| Strettle |
5
|
Fuga |
4
|
| Amesbury |
4
|
Lowe |
4
|
| Evans N |
3
|
Andress |
3
|
| Fuga |
3
|
Camancho |
3
|
| Robson |
3
|
JTH |
3
|
| Williams T |
3
|
Percival |
3
|
| Masson |
2
|
Robson |
3
|
| Gomarsall |
1
|
So'oialo |
3
|
| Luveniyali |
1
|
Guest |
2
|
| McMillan |
1
|
McMillan |
2
|
| Poluleuligaga |
1
|
Mordt |
2
|
|
|
Clegg |
1
|
|
|
|
Drauninui |
1
|
|
Last year 4 players had played all 9 games, this year three have done so. Last year 13 players had played 6 or more of the 9, this year it’s 12 and just two more players have been used than last season.
So injuries and bans haven’t had that huge a difference – something that came as quite a surprise.
One place where there has been a big difference is in the centres. Last season Turner-Hall played all 9 games, 6 times with Tiesi, twice with Masson and once with Monye. This season Turner-Hall only played three times before being injured and there have been six different centre partnerships.
| 2008 | 2009 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Combination | Appearances | Combination | Appearances |
| JTH + Tiesi |
6
|
Masson + Tiesi |
3
|
| JTH + Masson |
2
|
JTH + Masson |
2
|
| JTH + Monye |
1
|
JTH + Tiesi |
1
|
| Masson + Lowe |
1
|
||
| Mordt + Lowe |
1
|
||
| Mordt + Tiesi |
1
|
||
While two players don’t make a team, having a centre partnership that has experience playing together can make the difference between effectively turning possession into attack, bringing the wings and fullback into the game, and failing to do so and having great difficulty scoring tries.
So what does all this scribbling mean, possibly not very much, but we are having trouble scoring tries this season although the overall results aren’t that different. Perhaps other teams are not underestimating us this season, perhaps our expectations are too high, while much of the team has been as consistent as last season the large amount of forced changes in the centres may have been a part of it at least.
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Defences rule. I shall never, ever, get used to aerial ping-pong. As players get bigger and fitter, there's less space and opportunity for penetration and attack. I also agree, certainly based upon the fare on offer at the Stoop, that there have been more unforced errors than normal this season.
1) The loss of a stable centre pairing (though in the long run, I suspect that having Mordt and Masson
getting more game time will improve things considerably)
2) The fact that Andress and Lambert are less experienced than Ross. Our scrums have generally ben doing well by the end of the game but have been hard pushed in the opening 20 minutes.
3) A loss of confidence following the events of the summer. We might have got over this in the first game if we'd beaten Wasps (especially if we'd done it with 14 men), but as it is it has taken afew games for Quins to settle.
For the GP as a whole, I think it's harder to judge. It may be that the majority of the teams in the GP have had some degree of shake-up over the summer. In particular, those with the most open, attacking games - Bath, Glos, Quins - have been hit hard by one thing or another, whereas other changes have been towards a hard-nosed, pragmatic but unlovely style of play. Leicester have been forced in to that by injuries, having had a more expansive game last season, but Sarries and to a lesser extent LI have adopted it.
I think also that I still side with Deano's judgement of last season: until the refereeing of the breakdown consistently errs on the side of the attacker, aerial ping pong, phase play and going for penalties will be the order of the day. It's in the refs' hands to address this. I actually thought that Mr Clancy had a decent go at it last weekend, prioritising the tackler rolling away over placing of the ball - but perhaps a derby featuring two of the GP's meanest defences wasn't the place to start the experiment!
I sometimes wonder if the answer is to make a penalty closer in value to a try. If a try was worth, say 2+1 and a penalty worth 2, a defensive team would be less willing to infringe at the breakdown, which should lead to faster ball and more tries. Drop goals might need to drop to 1, to avoid the "Jannie de Beer" strategy.
Factor in that I think at the moment rugby just seems to be in a bit of a creative trough as far as jack-in-the-box players go (is this a coaching flaw?) and the changes in rules back and forth, it makes for a bit of a mess.
Plus, the start of the season in most sports is usually fairly messy as people are rusty, new players bed in etc.
The game's afoot;
Follow your spirit: and upon this charge,
Cry — God for Harry! England and Saint George
Having watched (finally!) last weekends highlights it is remarkable how similar many of the matches are. Very few teams are playing a continuity game. There does seem to be a lot of what we saw in the last S14 series, kick it, hope they make a mistake and then strike from broken field with a big strong runner. Not something that is particularly attractive (or effective from what I've seen). How this could change is another question.
The basic error count is shocking. The number of dropped balls is a major worry, especially as so far most of the rugby has been played in conditions perfectly suited to a free flowing game. God help us when we start playing in wet conditions.
The aerial ping pong is a massive problem. There's nothing wrong with a decent kicking game, but this aimless kicking seems to be as much of a panic option as an attempt to force errors from the person fielding the kick. So often the ball with come out and the 9 or 10 looks up, often into the face of an onrushing defence which started 5m offside, can't decide what to do so just hoists a high, straight kick, which the opposition player has no trouble fielding and returning with interest. Very few of NEV's or rory's kicks have forced the opposing full back to turn and chase the ball. most land about 30 yards out, smack bang in the middle of the pitch. good as he was, dickson was especially guilty from what i recall of kicking away possession with pointless box kicks, often giving them possession well within our half. put some structure into the kicking game, with decent touch finders, little grubbers of dinks over the top, and the game will rapidly improve.
finally, the decision making often appears to be flawed. cross kicks for a 50/50 catch when there is a 4 man overlap. cutting back in when there's an overlap, not offloading when a certain try is on, offloading out of the tackle for no good reason, little blinb pop passes to no-one, etc
i really do reckon that quins' game could improve very quickly with a few tweaks here and there, which must be due to coaching. if they can't catch the ball, there should be schoolboy style repetitive passing and catching drills. if the players still don't get it, give someone else a chance
as for the game in general, i think a change in emphasis on refereeing at the breakdown, favouring the attacker and the production of quick ball, the reintroduction of rucking, and proper policing of offsides (which might involve the linesmen actually doing something and keeping up with the game) would help enormously. as soon as a half break is made and there is quick ball, then you start to see the sort of fluid, attacking rugby that a lot of people like to see. but if the defence can kill the ball and then line up and rush at the attacking ten, the ball will simply be kicked away. proper enforcing of the current laws would go such a long way, as well as a change in tactics
I assume the player appearances are starts only, as I know George Lowe has played in 8 of our 9 games so far this season.
The game's afoot;
Follow your spirit: and upon this charge,
Cry — God for Harry! England and Saint George
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to bleat about it all over the internet"
jth is excellent at straightening the line and holding his defender, and he also makes loads of half breaks, allowing the forwards to run off him or drive him forward. even if the ball he receives is a bit slow, he keeps his defender honest, as he can easily exploit a half gap on the inside shoulder of the defender, so they can't simply drift out and push the wingers into touch with no ground gained
I'd like to see a trial game or two - perhaps the Anglo Welsh could be the test lab next season - where at every break down the offside line for both attack and defence was 5m back. Unless you were either the scrum half (or his stand in because he's buried under the last break down still!) you have to be in the ruck or 5m back. It may reduce the effectiveness of the completely flat defensive lines across the pitch that are up in the attackers face instantly? It may also make teams commit more players to the break down - to counteract the drive around the fringe - and free up a bit of space out wide?
The trouble is every time we tinker with the laws the players and coaches find a way of negating it in the end.
The game's afoot;
Follow your spirit: and upon this charge,
Cry — God for Harry! England and Saint George
The game's afoot;
Follow your spirit: and upon this charge,
Cry — God for Harry! England and Saint George
Seb and George, maybe?