Conor's Premiership Roadmap: Season 2010-11
By Quaking Quin
August 27 2010
Another season starts full of hope and renewed excitement after a year most Quins fans work like to forget. This is the 14th year of the Premiership - the previous 13 provide a mass of statistics that allow us to predict after just a few results where teams is likely to finish up next May. The Roadmap identifies the 'must win' games and puts into perspective those apparently dismal displays....
Statistics tell us Quins have played 268 games in the Premiership since the start in 1997. While the Prof has faithfully earmarked every game as a ‘win’ in the CAW Prediction League the fact is Quins have accumulated a total of only 114 victories, against 144 defeats and 10 draws. In this season’s competition there are only 3 teams Quins have won more games against than lost – surprisingly the best record is against Bath (13 wins/11 loses) followed by Newcastle (12 wins/10 loses/2 draws) then Leeds (8 wins/4 loses). All the other teams (excluding Exeter) have depressingly better records against the multi-coloured ones, which gives them a motivational advantage each time they meet up. Quins have never beaten Leicester in the Premiership, sadly it is: lost 23 – drawn 1. In descending order, this is followed by Sale (lost 16, won 7, drawn 1) and our very dear friends, the Wycombe Nomads (lost 15, won 9).
While there may be an inevitability to a game with Tigers, the statistics tell us that on average if a team reaches a certain points threshold there is a very high probability they will also end up in a certain position in the league. This is how the Roadmap works – it does not try to predict results, it simply looks where the most points are likely to come from and by meeting the target set for each game the final league place prediction becomes evident quite early on. Last season Quins had a poor start managing only 3 point in September but by the end of October and Round 6 the team were showing a probable 8 th place finish. This stayed the case for the remaining 16 games with Quins keeping within the target range week by week for a predicted 8 th or 9 th place finish.
The Roadmap averages out the points won over the history of the Premiership as follows:
- To finish 1 st needs 74 points (16 wins + bonus points)
- 4 th needs 62 points (13 wins + bps)
- 6 th needs 55 points (11 wins +bps)
- 11 th spot works out on average at 36 points but Quins were relegated on 38 points (the highest ever relegation total) so for the Roadmap 40pts is the 11 th place target to guarantee safety (8 wins + 8 bonus points from whatever source).
The 2009-2010 GP Season conformed perfectly to the formula:
Leicester were 1st on 73 pts, Bath 4 th on 61 pts, Irish 6 th on 52 pts.
Unusually, 4 teams ended below the 40 point relegation safety threshold, but only Sale and Wuzz, who both had very poor seasons, ended up just below the average 36 points.
So where do the points come from – mostly from home games and away results from teams who finished in the lowest positions last season. The more Quins get wins and bonus points from teams previously finishing in the middle and upper parts of the table, the more likely they are to finish this season in a HC or play-off slot. There will always be anomalies and freak results. Last season Sarries were the stars but they were matched by Sale’s move in the opposite direction. Tigers won the GP in 2000-01 with 82 points but the Titians went down that season on only 12pts.
The turning point for Quins last season was the home game against Wuzz back in early March. The Warriors were eventually relegated on 28pts - before that game Quins had 28 points and scrapped a nervous 14-11 victory. Had the result gone the other way the season could have been very different for both clubs. Talk at the time from JK and the optimistic on CAW was still of a top 6 finish despite away games at Bath, Sarries and Leicester – traditional graveyards for Quins. The lads eventually took a total of 1 point from these three games. From the start of the season the Roadmap showed only one point total predicted from these games and continued to show an 8/9 th place finish!!! I know – you have to be optimistic to be a sports fan and realistic to be a bookmaker – when did you last see a poor bookie?
The table below is easy to use as the season progresses – just look at the last but one column to see how many actual points Quins have won so far and compare them with the second column under each of the four finishing place columns. The last column shows the Roadmap’s predicted finish.
Regaining lost points isn’t as easy as it looks – and highlights the phenomenon of the ‘must win’ game. To get to the magic total at the bottom of the columns Quins have to pick up all their ‘4’ and ‘5’ point matches. They can only make up lost ground by winning the more difficult ‘0’ or ‘1pt’ lost games against higher placed opposition.
Although Deano denied having such a table down at his office in the old Roehampton training ground, it is an essential tool for monitoring previous performances and making tactical team selections for future matches. So next time you hear our new DoR in a post match interview say he was ‘happy with the positives from the team’s performance (after just being massacred in a no-hoper at Welford Road) you will know he had been studying his version of the Roadmap and was actually saying ‘I didn’t expect to win that one and was trying a couple of different tactical options’.
If I do make one prediction for this season, the fixture list shows a very close run race for Quins (if they show any form) to finish in 4 th or 6 th position. The Roadmap shows the last few games having the potential to go either way – could an in-form Quins finally beat Leicester at the Stoop – or would the season have already disintegrated in a succession of fumbles, frustration and feeble yellow cards?
Glass half full – George Lowe (or Gavin Henson?), bring on those fireworks!!!
| Conor’s Premiership Roadmap Table - Season 2010/11: | ||||||||||||
| Rd | Team | Date | 11 th Place | 6 th Place | 4 th Place | 1 st Place | Actual Points | Year End Finish | ||||
| Pt | Total | Pt | Total | Pt | Total | Pt | Total | |||||
| 1 | Wasps (a) | 4/9/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 2 | Saints (h) | 11/9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 3 | Sale (a) | 17/9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 10 | ||
| 4 | Exeter (h) | 25/9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 15 | ||
| 5 | Falcons (h) | 2/10 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 20 | ||
| 6 | Glaws (a) | 23/10 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 24 | ||
| 7 | Bath (h) | 31/10 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 28 | ||
| 8 | Tigers (a) | 20/11 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 28 | ||
| 9 | Leeds (h) | 28/11 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 33 | ||
| 10 | Sarries (a) | 5/12 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 34 |
|
|
| 11 | Irish (h) | 27/12 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 38 | ||
| Halfway
| 20pts | 29pts | 30pts | 38pts |
|
| ||||||
| 12 | Saints (a) | 1/1/11 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 36 | ||
| 13 | Wasps (h) | 8/1 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 33 | 4 | 34 | 4 | 42 | ||
| 14 | Exeter (a) | 12/2 | 4 | 28 | 5 | 38 | 5 | 39 | 5 | 47 | ||
| 15 | Sale (h) | 19/2 | 5 | 33 | 5 | 43 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 52 | ||
| 16 | Irish (a) | 26/2 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 45 | 1 | 53 | ||
| 17 | Falcons (a) | 4/3 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 45 | 4 | 49 | 4 | 57 | ||
| 18 | Glaws (h) | 26/3 | 4 | 38 | 4 | 49 | 4 | 53 | 4 | 61 | ||
| 19 | Tigers (h) | 2/4 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 54 | 4 | 65 | ||
| 20 | Bath (a) | 16/4 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 66 | ||
| 21 | Leeds (a) | 24/4 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 58 | 4 | 70 | ||
| 22 | Sarries (h) | 7/5 | 1 | 40 | 4 | 54 | 4 | 62 | 4 | 74 | ||
| Final Total
| 40pts | 54pts | 62pts | 74pts |
|
| ||||||
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.
I suspect Tigers at the Stoop could be a decisive one for the season. Although you only have us needing to win it for 1st place, if the race for top 4 or top 6 is tight a win would give a huge amount of momentum.
I also wonder if 40 points will be needed to stay up this year but then again we all know the consequences of relying on someone else being poor and only needing, say, 37 points to stay up!
I'd like to see them stay up - but let's hope they haven't built too much momentum by the time we play them.
The Prof Rules!
Early wins in September are always important so a win at the LDH on neutral ground would set up the season nicely.
Good read QQ. Thanks.
I expect us to beat most clubs at home, away, not so sure. I would say that Sarries, Saints and of course Leicester will be the top 3 (not in order) after that, there is Bath, Glos, Irish and us. Then lower down, Sale, Falcons, Leeds and Chiefs.
Quote:Rocker
First 2 games aren't all that easy, but Wasps are beatable, especially at an almost neutral venue. Saints will be a tough match, even at home. I don't see Sale as holding too many terrors, neither Newcastle or Exeter should be problems at home. Glos a, Bath h, 2 matches that could go either way; Tiggers a, not hopeful; Leeds h, Irish h, both winable, the only one there is Sarries a. First half of the season doesn't look too bad.
I expect us to beat most clubs at home, away, not so sure. I would say that Sarries, Saints and of course Leicester will be the top 3 (not in order) after that, there is Bath, Glos, Irish and us. Then lower down, Sale, Falcons, Leeds and Chiefs.
If we are to challenge this year, we should be beating every side at home. This is feasable as we very rarely get blown away by a side at the stoop (leicester did it a few years back, but only because we were abject and irish nilled us in the playoffs). Win your 11 home games, beat the bottom 4 away from home and pick up bonus points in the tight ones/by stuffing the weaker sides at the stoop and you'll always be there or thereabouts. IIRC we only lost to irish at home in the bloodgate season. We came second. Go figure.
The key will be to take away wins where we can. The win at Bath in 09 was a huge boost to the team and generated a lot of self belief. The equivalent match this season could be equally important in terms of squeezing up a couple of places.
But that's a long way off. Wasps are not the force they once were, they traditionally start the season slowly and we should be able to take as much support to Twickers as they do (plus win over the neutral fans who will probably fear them more than us). I am sure that Conor will have the team really fired up for Saturday (and hopefully will have had GR point out where the limit is...)
Top 4 finish at least!
![[:wor kid:]](/phorum-5.1.15/mods/smileys/images/13.gif "[:wor kid:]")
Let's hope we win this weekend then - quite hopeful despite sains strength as we alsways seem to do well against them at home.
Now we know that there is a lot to go for in the league this year then and we have finally made up for that god awful loss at Sale!
Of the teams currently above us, we're only away to one - and a trip to the Not Nots doesn't exactly have us quaking in our boots at the moment.
I realise every game from hereon in is a 'big game' - but the two that really stand out to me are Glaws at home then the trip to the Rec.
To add the the fun, we could have a couple of cup runs to throw into the mix as well!