Conor's Premiership Roadmap: Round 5 Review
By Quaking Quin
October 20 2010
There is a long way to go but the premiership is now at the quarter point and after 5 rounds the DoR seems content with 7th position. Quins have dropped some points unnecessarily and are currently are only on target for a final 8th place finish to the season. The next two games are against teams also looking to qualify for the Heineken Cup next May and the results are going to be key to determining Quins’ ability to succeed.
Conor O’Shea has already felt it necessary to assure us that Quins are good enough to finish the season in the top six. It’s a little difficult to know whether the comments were aimed at the fans or just a morale boost to himself after a couple of difficult games to start things off.
A disappointing result at Sale and a lack-lustre performance against Newcastle have dropped essential league points needed to keep on target for the HC slot – as the Roadmap below reveals.
The problem with dropping easy points is that that making them up can only be done by taking points back against the more difficult top teams.
This weekend’s game against Gloucester is the first (and best) opportunity to get right back on track. A win at Kingsholm would mean 17 league points and the prospect of a play-off position come year end. But more importantly, it would give the players the confidence to tackle a series of tricky games in the DoR’s next batch of 6 games.
To keep up the momentum until the Christmas period home games against Bath, Leeds and Irish are all ‘must wins’ but any sort of bonus point away to the Tigers and Sarries would really show Quins are upwardly mobile.
On current form that is being over-optimistic – Gloucester and Bath will show what the character of the team is and the tactical nous of O’Shea. Any further loss of points in the banker games will be doubly difficult to retrieve in the New Year.
But right now, with only 13 points (irrespective of who Quins are currently tied with in the league), it’s unfortunately a predicted 8th place finish………..
| Conor’s Premiership Roadmap Table - Season 2010/11: | ||||||||||||
| Rd | Team | Date | 11th Place | 6thPlace | 4th Place | 1st Place | Actual Points & Position |
Predicted Year End Finish |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pt | Total | Pt | Total | Pt | Total | Pt | Total | |||||
| 1 | Wasps (a) | 4/9/10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 (7th) | - |
| 2 | Saints (h) | 11/9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 (10th) | 3rd |
| 3 | Sale (a) | 17/9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 4 (11th) | 6th |
| 4 | Exeter (h) | 25/9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 9 (7th) | 7th |
| 5 | Falcons (h) | 2/10 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 20 | 13 (7th) | 8th |
| 6 | Glaws (a) | 23/10 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 24 | ||
| 7 | Bath (h) | 31/10 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 28 | ||
| 8 | Tigers (a) | 19/11 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 28 | ||
| 9 | Leeds (h) | 28/11 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 33 | ||
| 10 | Sarries (a) | 5/12 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 34 |
|
|
| 11 | Irish (h) | 27/12 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 38 | ||
| Halfway
|
20pts | 29pts | 30pts | 38pts |
|
|
||||||
| 12 | Saints (a) | 1/1/11 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 36 | ||
| 13 | Wasps (h) | 8/1 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 33 | 4 | 34 | 4 | 42 | ||
| 14 | Exeter (a) | 12/2 | 4 | 28 | 5 | 38 | 5 | 39 | 5 | 47 | ||
| 15 | Sale (h) | 19/2 | 5 | 33 | 5 | 43 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 52 | ||
| 16 | Irish (a) | 26/2 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 45 | 1 | 53 | ||
| 17 | Falcons (a) | 4/3 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 45 | 4 | 49 | 4 | 57 | ||
| 18 | Glaws (h) | 26/3 | 4 | 38 | 4 | 49 | 4 | 53 | 4 | 61 | ||
| 19 | Tigers (h) | 2/4 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 54 | 4 | 65 | ||
| 20 | Bath (a) | 16/4 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 66 | ||
| 21 | Leeds (a) | 24/4 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 58 | 4 | 70 | ||
| 22 | Sarries (h) | 7/5 | 1 | 40 | 4 | 54 | 4 | 62 | 4 | 74 | ||
| Final Total
|
40pts | 54pts | 62pts | 74pts |
|
|
||||||
‘Must-Win’ Games
No team has gone through a premiership season without loosing games. The least number of defeats in a season is 3 – done 3 times by the Tigers, and once by both Newcastle and Gloucester. In recent years, when finishing top only guaranteed home advantage in the play-offs, the number of defeats has increased to 5 or 6. But the principle is the same whether it’s avoiding relegation or going for HC qualification, there are games that must be won to achieve the necessary league points. As explained in earlier Roadmap reviews, the obvious points come from the weaker teams (the ones that finished in the lowest positions in the previous season).
So, which are Quins ‘Must-win’ games?
For a 6th Place they must beat –
Sale (h&a), Exeter (h&a), Falcons (h), Bath (h), Leeds (h), Irish (h), Wasps (h), Gloucester (h) and Sarries (h) + 10 bonus points (which can also include points for draws)
For a top 4 finish add the following 2 games –
Falcons (a), Leeds (a) + the same 10 bonus points
And to make up for lost ‘Must-wins’ -
The following windfalls would be necessary (in order of difficulty):
Home Wins - Leicester (they’re the only other team left to play at home) – and a win against the Tigers is something Quins have never managed to achieve in the history of the premiership.
Away Wins – Glaws, Irish, Bath, Sarries, Northampton then Leicester.
This way of looking at things shows the importance of the Gloucester game for a top 6 finish. If Quins lose then the next target is Irish away – and so on.
If you come from the ‘over optimistic’ coach’s school of thought then every match is winnable, even after a long string of defeats – but as John Kingston found out last season, reality is a cruel but unforgiving mistress.
Fingers crossed for Kingsholm.
If you do not already have an account Click here to Register.
The need for consistency of performance is paramount, lets hope Conor can instill this sooner rather tahn later.
As said above the game lost to Sale away & no bonus against Newcastle are disappointing results but perhaps are a reality check as to what our team can actually achieve this season.
I travel to Gloucester hoping for a win but it's reported as a fearful place to play. We have a few close ones there recently maybe this is the weekend.
The game's afoot;
Follow your spirit: and upon this charge,
Cry — God for Harry! England and Saint George
But it does highlight what an important games it is this weekend (and so early in the season).
The surprising thing is how few games there are to catch up on missed opportunities.
Come to think of it - just emphasises how difficult the premiership is - full stop.
O Fortuna, velut luna statu variabilis,
semper crescis aut decrescis
It would be fantastic to break tradition and take something from Welford Road but to be realistic Conor could 'rest' a couple of key players (sore ankle etc).
That will of course be the second visit to Welford Road in as many weeks, having already done the Luvvie Cup vist. Some very interesting team selections coming up in the wake of the Bath game.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2010:10:21:19:28:31 by Quint Eastwood.
BB