Conor's Road Map 2015-2016
By poorfour
July 11 2015
While we as fans would like Quins to win every game they play, the reality of modern rugby is that you just can’t do that, and one of the key skills for a Director of Rugby is to know which games to target. That doesn’t mean setting out to lose, but realistically a DoR knows that he can afford to lose some games, and knowing which ones he can take a risk on might influence the choice between fielding a first team player who’s not quite 100% or resting them and trusting their backup.
Somewhere, Conor will have a chart that looks a bit like the colourful one below, and he will use it to plan the season. But first, let’s look at how he decides the points totals required.
What’s our target?
Year |
Relegated |
11th |
7th |
5th |
2nd |
|
2014-15 |
1 |
34 |
54 |
68 |
75 |
|
2013-14 |
16 |
22 |
49 |
67 |
78 |
|
2012-13 |
23 |
33 |
53 |
60 |
74 |
|
2011-12 |
32 |
33 |
46 |
59 |
74 |
|
2010-11 |
23 |
23 |
52 |
62 |
76 |
|
2009-10 |
28 |
32 |
48 |
57 |
71 |
|
2008-09 |
17 |
34 |
53 |
61 |
66 |
|
2007-08 |
12 |
34 |
59 |
63 |
70 |
|
2006-07 |
33 |
34 |
51 |
61 |
71 |
|
2005-06 |
27 |
41 |
45 |
56 |
66 |
|
2004-05 |
38 |
40 |
47 |
57 |
73 |
|
2003-04 |
3 |
37 |
53 |
55 |
73 |
|
2002-03 |
34 |
36 |
42 |
56 |
62 |
|
Average |
22.1 |
33.3 |
50.2 |
60.2 |
71.5 |
|
Std Dev |
11.3 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
|
Target |
|
39 |
55 |
64 |
76 |
I’ve looked at the points needed to secure 2nd, 5th, 7th and 11th in the Premiership since playoffs were first introduced, and I’ve included the points total of the relegated team for good measure.
I chose those because Conor’s aim will be to secure 1st, 4th, 6th and 11th position respectively – but to secure 1st you only need to be a point better than 2nd, for 4th you need to be just better than 5th, for 6th just better than 7th. And so what I’ve done is to take the average score for those positions, and add one standard deviation. The resulting score would have secured the position we’re after in all but 1 or 2 years.
Using 12th place as our benchmark-to-beat is a bit dicey because it varies so much – the other positions all vary by about the same amount , but standard deviation for 12th is about 2.5x that of the other positions. So I’ve taken a belt-and-braces approach and targeted a score that should be enough to secure 10th place by using 11th as my benchmark. Conveniently, that gives us a target 1 point higher than the total we were relegated on back in 2005 – the highest total of any team ever to be relegated.
Blockbuster
So how do we build to those targets over a season? If you’ve followed Conor’s post-match comments over the last couple of years, you’ll be aware that he thinks of the season in terms of “blocks”. DoRs think of the premiership season as being punctuated by a series of natural breakpoints – European games, the 6N and this year the end of the Rugby World Cup – and the games between those breakpoints as “blocks”.
This enables them to set mini-targets for the team that they can realistically go after – “we need to win 3 out of the next 4 games” – but also to adjust them depending on how the season has gone so far. It also helps to manage the squad, since you have a reasonable view of who might be away on international duty, and who you want to keep fit for Europe.
I think next season will probably be viewed as 5 or 6 blocks (I’ve broken the 6N period down into 2 mini-blocks, as 7 games seems quite a lot), and taken a stab at what we need to get from each game to hit our targets.
There can be trade-offs. I’ve tended to emphasise getting something – even if it’s only an LBP – from as many games as possible over winning more games but not getting so many bonus points. Historically that’s been a reasonably successful way to look at things. But, broadly speaking, this is the shape of the season and we should be able to gauge how we are doing by referring to it over the course of the year.
|
|
|
|
|
11th |
39 |
6th |
55 |
4th |
64 |
1st |
76 |
|
Block |
Date |
Home team |
Away team |
Pts |
Tot |
Pts |
Tot |
Pts |
Tot |
Pts |
Tot |
|
1 |
16/10/2015 |
Harlequins |
Wasps |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
24/10/2015 |
Leicester Tigers |
Harlequins |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
|
|
31/10/2015 |
Bath Rugby |
Harlequins |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
1 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
END of RWC 2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
07/11/2015 |
Harlequins |
Sale Sharks |
1 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
9 |
5 |
14 |
|
|
EPCR weeks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28/11/2015 |
Exeter Chiefs |
Harlequins |
0 |
3 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
10 |
4 |
18 |
|
|
05/12/2015 |
Harlequins |
London Irish |
4 |
7 |
5 |
11 |
5 |
15 |
5 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
EPCR weeks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
27/12/2015 |
Harlequins |
Gloucester Rugby |
4 |
11 |
4 |
15 |
5 |
20 |
5 |
28 |
|
02/01/2016 |
Worcester Warriors |
Harlequins |
4 |
15 |
4 |
19 |
4 |
24 |
5 |
33 |
|
|
09/01/2016 |
Harlequins |
Saracens |
0 |
15 |
1 |
20 |
1 |
25 |
1 |
34 |
|
|
|
EPCR weeks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31/01/2016 |
Newcastle Falcons |
Harlequins |
4 |
19 |
4 |
24 |
4 |
29 |
4 |
38 |
|
|
|
|
START of 6N |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
06/02/2016 |
Harlequins |
Northampton Saints |
1 |
20 |
1 |
25 |
1 |
30 |
4 |
42 |
|
13/02/2016 |
Gloucester Rugby |
Harlequins |
1 |
21 |
4 |
29 |
4 |
34 |
4 |
46 |
|
|
20/02/2016 |
Harlequins |
Leicester Tigers |
1 |
22 |
4 |
33 |
4 |
38 |
4 |
50 |
|
|
28/02/2016 |
Wasps |
Harlequins |
1 |
23 |
1 |
34 |
1 |
39 |
1 |
51 |
|
|
5 |
05/03/2016 |
Sale Sharks |
Harlequins |
1 |
24 |
4 |
38 |
4 |
43 |
4 |
55 |
|
12/03/2016 |
Harlequins |
Bath Rugby |
1 |
25 |
1 |
39 |
1 |
44 |
1 |
56 |
|
|
19/03/2016 |
Harlequins |
Worcester Warriors |
4 |
29 |
5 |
44 |
5 |
49 |
5 |
61 |
|
|
|
|
END of 6N |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
26/03/2016 |
Northampton Saints |
Harlequins |
1 |
30 |
1 |
45 |
1 |
50 |
1 |
62 |
|
02/04/2016 |
Harlequins |
Newcastle Falcons |
4 |
34 |
4 |
49 |
5 |
55 |
5 |
67 |
|
|
|
EPCR QF week |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16/04/2016 |
Saracens |
Harlequins |
0 |
34 |
0 |
49 |
0 |
55 |
0 |
67 |
|
|
|
EPCR SF week |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
01/05/2016 |
London Irish |
Harlequins |
4 |
38 |
5 |
54 |
5 |
60 |
5 |
72 |
|
|
07/05/2016 |
Harlequins |
Exeter Chiefs |
1 |
39 |
1 |
55 |
4 |
64 |
4 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
EPCR Finals week |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wins |
|
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
16 |
|
|
|
TBP |
|
|
0 |
|
3 |
|
5 |
|
7 |
|
|
|
LBP |
|
|
11 |
|
8 |
|
7 |
|
5 |
|
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2016:06:08:12:11:23 by DOK.
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “ – Mark Twain
O Fortuna, velut luna statu variabilis,
semper crescis aut decrescis
e.g. After Quins vs. Tigers in the "aiming for 4th place" column, we'll need to beat them to get our running total up to 38 for that point in the season.
Clear as mud?
EDITED to add: Assuming we don't get defensive scrum after defensive scrum camped on our try line whilst leaking yellow cards, but inexplicably not penalty tries!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2015:07:13:13:25:07 by InsertQuinsPunHere.
Remember: we shouldn't expect to win away games at top sides. Taking anything from the Bath game would probably be a good result, and my feeling from what I have seen so far is that we have enough to make it a close game if the RWC returnees are fitted in and firing.
I predicted that to target 1st place we'd need to pick up a decent number of TBPs against "weaker" opposition. Given the way Sarries have started, that's looking like a pretty accurate prediction - and we have a run of games coming up where we should be targeting tries.
If we can get the backline firing and pick up some extra points in the next few games, we can start to hope. Carry that form beyond Christmas, and we can start to believe.
Saracens have made a very strong start, albeit with a couple of easier games in their first block. Quins may come to regret the narrow loss at Welford Road in what's shaping up to be a season in which the old order is put under a bit of pressure, but all things considered this is a decent return from the opening few weeks, especially given the number of changes in the squad.
Once we get back to the Premiership, a trip to Sandy Park will give us a good measure of our season. A rare victory at one of the toughest venues to visit would give us some real cause for optimism.
15 points at this stage is actually pretty good. It suggests that we are in genuine contention for a Top 4 place - having had a very tough start to the season.
However, we have to set that against Sarries start to the season. They will be the team to beat, and overhauling them is going to be tough. That said, they have had a fairly easy fixture list with some much tougher games to come, and they are likely to lose a lot of players to England - while if some pundits and fans are to be believed, Quins will not.
A little more composure would ease the nerves, but the season is looking good so far.
Its only just really dawned on me that we'll have 7 prem matches without the England boys during 6N, including 4 at home Saints, Tigers, Bath, Worcester. That is going to be a tough period without (potentially) Brown, Marler, Care, Robshaw....AND Roberts! (and maybe Yarde?) And there are only 2 home matches post 6N.
Therefore we need to be going flat out for TBP wins vs LI this weekend, Gloucester at BG8 and Falcons away.
And we need a big result vs Sarries at home, where we should in theory have all of our 1st choice 15 available.
So just the 19(!) points from the next 4 matches please and then hang in there near the top until the end.....
Quote:Dark Pies
Just looking at this again after the first 5 games...great piece of work.
Its only just really dawned on me that we'll have 7 prem matches without the England boys during 6N, including 4 at home Saints, Tigers, Bath, Worcester. That is going to be a tough period without (potentially) Brown, Marler, Care, Robshaw....AND Roberts! (and maybe Yarde?) And there are only 2 home matches post 6N.
Therefore we need to be going flat out for TBP wins vs LI this weekend, Gloucester at BG8 and Falcons away.
And we need a big result vs Sarries at home, where we should in theory have all of our 1st choice 15 available.
So just the 19(!) points from the next 4 matches please and then hang in there near the top until the end.....
I agree the next 5 premiership games are crucial. And need to be targeting wins.
The thing is with the games during the 6Ns, you have to look at the teams we are playing against. Whilst we will be missing players, so will they. By playing leicester, bath and saints at home we have an advantage with the players they'll be missing too and they'll probably be missing more. Then we have a away games against Gloucester and Wasps who both have internationals too.
I would be more worried about the game at home against Worcester who will be more or less full strength...
We're some way off 1st - hardly surprising given Sarries' start to the season. While their methods are odious, their form is ominous. I don't hold out a lot of hope for us to beat them next weekend. Even if we get good weather and they rest some players before the game with Ulster, it would need Quins to maintain their top form for the full 80 minutes.
However, those bonus points are starting to count for something. We've accumulated enough that we can actually afford to take nothing from the Sarries game and still remain on track for a Top 4 position. An LBP would be exactly that: a bonus.
All of which said, victory isn't impossible if we can maintain our discipline and defensive line, and kick intelligently. We have done all of those things at different points this season, just not at the same time or over the course of a full game.
Sarries top with 52 points (you suggested 51)
Tigers 4th with 40 (you suggested 39)
Quins 6th with 37 (you suggested 34 - which Glaws in 7th are on)
What are this weekend's lottery numbers?