Rugby Spread Betting 1

This is first in an occasional series of articles trying to provide some analysis of betting strategies on this market as well as some hot tips. (Important: you should pay no attention at all to the tips)

Here's the latest prices, and the opening prices from Sporting Index

Strategies

Before examining the prices on offer let's have a look at some general observations about how the market behaves, and suggest some possible strategies.

1 - No One Knows
On thing that's certain about the opening prices is that they are guesswork. No one knows how the table will look in May, and the prices reflect (a) last seasons form, and (b) an amalgam of pundits' predictions.

For instance: last season Gloucester opened at 65-68 and Wasps at 29-32, and went on to finish 1st and 2nd or, respectively 100 and 80 points.  Leicester opened at 84-87 (and finished sixth, 20points)

Conclusion: Research the teams, make your mind up make your bet. Don't worry if the market doesn't agree with you - you may well be right. Especially look for change. The market is dominated by last year's form. Which teams do you think will do significantly better, or worse that last season?

2 - Volatility
In the early weeks everything is very volatile (the prices move a lot). Teams that win the first two or three games rocket as everyone leaps in, and the converse for the losers.

For instance: Last season, after just two games, Saracens went from 14-17 to 32-35 as they started strongly while London Irish collapsed from 30-33 to 13-16..  This season you can see again that Sarries away win the Newcastle moved them significantly, as did Wasps price following the defeat to us.

Strategy:  Forget the long term for a moment look for short term gains in September - low priced teams with easier early games, and higher priced teams with tough ones.  Who'll be top of the league on Sept 25th? Who'll be bottom. You need to look at the fixture list (the pros are)

3 - You can also sell
A truism of spread betting is that beginners are almost always buyers. This is for two reasons - (a) supporters who make just one bet all season - they optimistically buy their team - and (b) because it's just somehow more intuitive and more comfortable to start with  buy, expecting to sell for profit. The reverse is somehow harder to see.

For instance: It's easy to spot on the prices above that if you're optimistic about Quins, then there's money to be made by buying. But you shouldn't ignore Leicester - they are priced between second and third.  A sell  bet only loses if they come 1st or 2nd - anything beneath that you are a winner. And, they're away to Sarries this week, a game I think they might lose...

Strategy: So, if you are a beginner be careful not to confine yourself to one half of the market - buying the teams that look cheap - also be sure to look at the converse - are Gloucester really that much the favourites? Which prices are pushed skywards by more than their fare share of optimistic punters?

Tips

OK - if you are serious about making money on spread bets, you should make your own mind up... and look away now.

Otherwise here's my thoughts (not including Quins, who are always a 'buy' for me!)

1. Do Saracens look a little cheap? They started very low, and their win at Newcastle last week boosted them, but still. They are at home to Leicester this week - a game they could win, which would boost them a bit more... a buy @ 12
2. Leicester look expensive. Sarries away. then Newcastle and Sale at home, then Glaws away. Plenty of banana skins there, and surely they can't finish second at the end of the season? A sell @ 64
3. Wasps: Surely they are the biggest bargain? I thought they looked a great squad on Saturday. OK they lost, but we know how sinlge minded and strong they can be... They fell seven points after losing to us... that makes them a bargain in my book. buy @ 49