A New Term At The School Of Hard Knocks
By Steeevo
September 16 2004
So here we are again, at the start of another season. Players have moved clubs, grounds have been improved, and most importantly we have a new kid in school, who goes by the name of Worcester.
But ours is the School of Hard Knocks, and many of the new kids have left after only one term, unable - for whatever reason - to survive. What will Worcester's fate be? Will they hold their own in the playground scraps and survive their first term, or will they be unable to continue, leaving here for a return to their former alma mater, National Division 1. Well, curiosity got the better of me and I decided to try and predict what is in store for the new lad.
I believe the best way to predict the future is to look at the trends of the past. A new team joins the Premiership every season, so what of the fortunes of these clubs? I started by having a look at the ups and downs since the Premiership started. I found the following:
1997-98
Down: Bristol Shoguns
Up: West Hartlepool
1998-99
Down: London Scottish (folded), West Hartlepool
Up: Bristol Shoguns
1999-2000
Down: Bedford Blues
Up: Rotherham Titans
2000-01
Down:Rotherham Titans
Up: Leeds Tykes
2001-02
Down: Leeds Tykes - No relegation
Up: Rotherham Titans - No Promotion
2002-03
Down: Bristol Shoguns
Up: Rotherham Titans
2003-04
Down: Rotherham Titans
Up: Worcester Warriors
Having a quick look at this, it is quite clear that there is a culture of "yo-yo"ing between the two leagues, with - for the most part - the promoted club dropping again the following season. The two exceptions to this rule are Bristol in 1999 and Leeds in 2001. If I remember correctly, Bristol's promotion co-incided with a massive spending spree by the club, with them purchasing a number of players from the dying Richmond, and beyond. Leeds stayed up purely because of administrative mismanagement on the part of Rotherham.
This leads me to draw the following conclusion: A club is most likely to survive promotion if:
1) they enjoy a massive cash injection before / on promotion in order to purchase players of sufficient ability to reasonably challenge in the Premiership
and/or
2) they are spared relegation in the first season in order to sufficiently adapt and get used to life in the Premiership.
On the basis that Worcester certainly falls into the first catagory courtesy of Mr. Duckworth's deep pockets, the purchase of such players as Clive Stuart-Smith, Pat Sanderson, Thinus Delport, and Ben Gollings means that the squad has been bolstered by players who all have considerable experience in the Premiership. Yes, the RFU may also decide to ringfence the Premiership at the end of the season, or may decide that the team to be promoted at the end of the season for some reason does not satisfy promotion criteria. However, these are points that cannot be predicted at this time, so I shall leave these possibilities to one side.
But then, if that is the case - that Worcester survive their first term in the Premiership - who is most likely to do down? Well, again, let us look at the past to predict the future. The first season Bristol survived in the Premiership Bedford got relegated and the season after that it was Rotherham's turn to leave the School of Hard Knocks. For the purposes of this exercise I'll ignore Rotherham as they fall into the "yo-yo" catagory, occurring as a result of insufficient funds to create a solid player base.
So Bedford - why did they drop and Bristol survive? I would suggest that this, again, is all to do with the squad. Looking at which teams were in the Premiership then and who made up the squads of each of those teams, I would venture to suggest that Bedford simply didn't have a strong enough squad to survive in the Premiership; they were being out-gunned by the likes of Leicester, Bath, Gloucester, and Saints... In fact, England's 1999 World Cup squad is a good example of the Premierships "great and good" of the time - the majority of the squad came from either Leicester, Bath, or Northampton, with Quins, Wasps, and others supplying the supporting cast. Bedford, however, had no-one of note to help bolster their chances of Premiership survival. On the other hand, Bristol were able to purchase a number of proven players for their foray into the Premiership - players who would certainly assist in the club's survival in the Premiership for several seasons. But Bedford survived the drop the season before, didn't they? Yes, they did. But look who dropped out - London Scottish and West Harlepool. London Scottish folded as a result of bankrupcy and were taken over by London Irish (I recall the actual word was "merged", but that's another story...) and West were simply even worse than Bedford, suffering as a result of an even thinner squad base. So, to be slightly uncharitable if honest, Bedford survived as a result of the misfortune of others.
Let us now use this knowlege to predect who might pay for Worcester's survival in the top flight. Working on the basis that "the weakest link says good bye", we must look at the squads of the eleven remaining class members their strengths. The following movements were seen in the summer break:
BATH
INS: Joe Maddock (Canterbury Crusaders), Frikkie Welsh (Blue Bulls), Nick Walshe (Sale Sharks), Christian Loader (Rotherham).
OUTS: Iain Balshaw (Leeds), Mike Catt (London Irish), Kevin Maggs (Ulster), Wylie Human (Northampton), Scott Gray (Borders), Ross Blake (Bristol Shoguns), Joe Mbu (Harlequins), Hentie Martens, Jamie Williams, Paul Sampson.
GLOUCESTER
INS: Olivier Azam (Montferrand), Nathan Mauger (Canterbury Crusaders), Christo Bezuidenhout, Adam Balding (Leicester), Gary Powell (Leeds), James Parkes (Saracens), James Bailey (Bristol Shoguns), Terry Sigley (Pertemps Bees).
OUT: Trevor Woodman (Sale Sharks), Junior Paramore (Bedford), Robert Todd (Sale Sharks), Thinus Delport (Worcester), Rodrigo Roncero (Stade Francais), Paul Johnstone (released), Andy Deacon, Steve Brotherstone (both retired).
HARLEQUINS
INS: Dafydd James, Maama Molitika (both Celtic Warriors), Jeremy Staunton (Munster), Steven So'oialo (Orrell), Maurice Fitzgerald (Biarritz), Joe Mbu (Bath).
OUT: Paul Burke (Munster), Pat Sanderson (Worcester), Chris Bell (Leeds), Scott Bemand (Leicester), Josh Taumalolo (Sale Sharks), Jason Leonard, Bill Davison (both retired), Ben Willis (Beziers), Laurent Gomez (Lyon), Rob Jewell, Matt Moore.
LEEDS
INS: Iain Balshaw (Bath), Pierre Uys (Stormers), Rayno Gerber (Free State Cheetahs), Tim Stimpson (Perpignan), Richard Parks (Celtic Warriors), Jon Dunbar (Newcastle), Chris Murphy (Pau), Chris Bell (Harlequins), Mark McMillan (Glasgow).
OUT: Dan Scarbrough (Saracens), Aaron Persico (Agen), Clive Stuart-Smith (Worcester), Gary Powell (Gloucester), Matt Salter (Bristol Shoguns), Tristan Davies (Cardiff Blues), James Ponton, Phil Murphy, Ryan Walker (all released).
LEICESTER
INS: Seru Rabeni (Otago), Ephraim Taukafa (Northern Suburbs, Sydney), Richard Cockerill (Montferrand), Scott Bemand (Harlequins).
OUT: Jaco van der Westhuyzen (NEC, Japan), Fereti Tuilagi (Cardiff Blues), Adam Balding (Gloucester), Glenn Gelderbloom (Plymouth Albion), James Richards (Newport Gwent Dragons), Tom Tierney (Connacht), Ramiro Pez, Ricky Nebbett, Andrew Powell (all released), Dorian West, Jamie Hamilton (both retired).
LONDON IRISH
INS: Mike Catt (Bath), Scott Staniforth (New South Wales Waratahs), Peter Poulos (NTT Docomo, Japan), Robbie Russell, Tony Roques (both Saracens),Rodd Penney (Orrell), Paul Hodgson, Richard Skuse (both Bristol Shoguns).
OUT: Chris Sheasby, Naka Drostske (both Staines RFC), Rob Hoadley, Ed Thrower (both Wasps).
NEWCASTLE
INS: Matt Burke (New South Wales Waratahs), Colin Charvis (Tarbes), Semo Sititi (Borders), Mike McCarthy (Connacht), Andy Long, Luke Gross (both Rotherham).
OUT: Hugh Vyvyan (Saracens), Warren Britz (Natal Sharks), Jon Dunbar (Leeds), Ben Gollings (Worcester), Phil Godman (Edinburgh), Garath Archer, Mark Andrews (both retired).
NORTHAMPTON
INS: Corne Krige, Selbourne Boome (both Western Province), Robbie Kempson (Ulster), Marc Stcherbina (Biarritz), Wylie Human (Bath), John Rudd (Wasps), Damien Browne (Connacht), Joe Ross (Bedford), Johan van Wyk (Border Bulldogs, South Africa), Ben Russell (Saracens).
OUT:: Matt Dawson (Wasps), John Leslie (Otago), Mark Connors (Japan), Jon Phillips (Bedford), Tevita Taumoepeau (Bourgoin), James Brooks (Wasps), Nick Beal (retired).
SALE
INS: Sebastien Chabal (Bourgoin), Ignacio Fernandez-Lobbe (Castres), Sebastien Bruno (Beziers), Trevor Woodman, Robert Todd (both Gloucester), Sililo Martens (Celtic Warriors), Josh Taumalolo (Harlequins), John Payne (Tonga).
OUT: Alex Sanderson, Iain Fullarton, Matt Cairns, Kevin Yates, Dan Harris (all Saracens), Nick Walshe (Bath), Vaughan Going (Beziers).
SARACENS
IN: Dan Scarbrough (Leeds), Hugh Vyvyan (Newcastle), Mark Bartholomuesz (ACT Brumbies), Glen Jackson (Waikato Chiefs), Moses Rauluni (Brisbane Easts), Alex Sanderson, Iain Fullarton, Matt Cairns, Kevin Yates, Dan Harris, Andy Kyriacou, Joe Bedford (all Sale Sharks), Nick Lloyd (Rotherham), Pila Fifita (North Otago), Tevita Vaikona (Bradford Bulls RL).
OUT: Robbie Russell (London Irish), James Parkes (Gloucester), Steven Sparks (Worcester), Nathan McAvoy (Salford RL), Adryan Winnan (Tarbes), Ben Russell (Northampton), Tony Roques (London Irish), Darragh O'Mahony, Johnny Marsters, Ryan Peacey, Dan Kirton, Joe Ross, Daniel Legge (all released), Emiliano Bergamaschi (Rosario, Argentina), Craig Yandell (retired).
WASPS
IN: Matt Dawson, James Brooks (both Northampton), Rob Hoadley (London Irish), Matt Priscott (Waikato), Ed Thrower (London Irish), Henry Nwume (Oxford University).
OUT: Paul Volley, Mark Denney (both Castres), Kenny Logan (Glasgow), John Rudd (Northampton), Shane Roiser (released).
To be honest, analysing the squads of all twelve Premiership sides is a mammoth task, and one which could quite easily take up twelve articles, let alone one. Casting my untrained eye over the eleven candidates, I would suggest that this season is going to be a very close run thing, with Bath, Sale, and - dare I say it - Quins all scrapping in the lower half of the table. But for relegation? Sale by a nose. Why? Well because, in my amateur opinion, it is Sale who have lost more in squad strength than they have gained in the summer break.
So, Worcester to survive the yo-yo of promotion and relegation at the cost of Sale. Will it happen? Who knows. Certainly not me - I've only based my musings on a combination of past events and wild conjecture. Will there even be relegation and promotion in the spring of 2005? I don't think even the RFU know for sure yet. One thing is certain though: It's going to be fun finding out!