News: HC: Ospreys vs Northampton Saints - Match Preview
By PelerinStJames
January 10 2014
After consolidating their second place spot in the Aviva Premiership last time out against Harlequins, Northampton Saints travel to Swansea this weekend to take on Ospreys in round five of the Heineken Cup pool matches. Regular COYSDC contributor, PelerinStJames, takes a look ahead to the Sunday lunch-time game...
OSPREYS vs. NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
HC: Sunday, 12th January 2014 - 12.45pm
LIBERTY STADIUM, SWANSEA
MATCH PREVIEW
Numbers!
They say no man is an Island, except, that is, for Barry, Barry is an Island in South Wales. Barry is also my mate, and for the last 2 and half years, the guy I have stood next to at virtually every Saints game that I have been to. As regular readers know, I like words, where as Barry on the other hand, far prefers numbers and simply adores his Stats, so much so he will often tell me too include more in my previews. So, in an attempt to show that this Englishman can write a preview of the right brain as well as the left brain, this one is for you, StatsmanBarry as you return to the Land of you Father on Sunday to watch Saints play Ospreys. (A mere round trip of 410 miles)
And so, we are now entering the final stages of the H Cup pools, so history shows us it is always prudent to keep a calculator close at hand. With Jamie Elliotts last gasp try to secure the win against Leinster also denying the Irishmen a bonus point, there remains a slim chance that the Saints can squeeze through into the quarters as pool winners. Leinster, on 13 points, with Saints 9, Castres 8 and Ospreys 5, only need 6 points from their last 2 games to secure top spot given their better head to head against Saints, should we manage to max out and get 2 bonus point wins to reach 19 points.
Alas, there is no Italian team in our pool, so it is highly unlikely that this will be enough for one of the two runners up spots, and we will find ourselves in the Amlin. Ofcourse, should Castres beat Leinster this weekend, then the door remains ajar, particularly if Leinster are denied a bonus point. In this scenario, Ospreys would also haul themselves back into contention by defeating Saints and every team would then go into the final round with a chance of qualification. (Sadly, Pool positions are not decided by line outs won as Saints are leading the way here across the whole competition with 61, including 6 steals from Courtney.) However, first things first, and we have a tough game on our hands down in Wales.
According to the wonders of Google, there are between 200 and 250 breeding pairs of Ospreys in the UK yet there are more than 10,000 Saints (no wonder we need a new stand as recent Popes have really upped the numbers)
The Ospreys then, flying high in 3rd place in the Pro 12, with 8 wins and a draw from their 12 games so far this season, have disappointed this season in the Heineken with only a 4pt win and a LBP from the home and away legs against Castres respectively to show for their efforts this year. A side with half a Lions pack and 10 of our Georges colleagues from the Autumn Internationals cannot and should not be taken lightly. They are on a current winning run of 4 straight games, including back to back wins over Llanelli Scarlets, and will no doubt be confident of continuing this streak on Sunday, particularly as nothing, it seems, motivates a Welshman like a game against English Opposition.
In Heineken Cup rugby, Ospreys have played a total of 67 games over the years, of which they have won 31 drawn 4 and lost 32, with a points per game average of 2.12 compared to Saints played 81 won 48 lost 33 at 2.3 points per game. I have to admit that I was very much surprised by this Ospreys record, and would have thought that given their players and successes in the Pro 12 (twice winners in the last 4 years), that they would have presented more of a challenge in the European Arena. Key to the Ospreys performance will be their much vaunted front row of Duncan Jones, Adam Jones and Richard Hibbard, as well as fly half Dan Biggar, who not only tops the charts for points scored in the this years tournament (55), but sadly also for turnovers conceded (12).
As for the Saints, well, a current winning streak of 4 games since the Home Leinster debacle belies the fact that they have only lost to the French Champions, the Pro 12 Champions and, um, the Champions of Gloucestershire so far this season. Whilst domestic form has been very strong, 2 of these 3 losses have happened in Europe, although perhaps you could argue that the performance of the season so far was the away win in Dublin which immediately followed the Leinster loss at FG.
The Ospreys strength seems very much to be up front in their pack, and this is where I feel the game will be decided. Consequently I am expecting the Saints to pick their biggest available pack, injuries permitting, which should be something like.
1 Waller A
2 Hartley
3 Ma’afu
4 Lawes
5 Day
6 Clark
7 Wood
8 Manoa
As for the backs, with injuries still a factor at Fullback, I have been impressed with Tom Collins in all his matches so far, I would like to see him continue at 15. At scrum half, I would also expect Kahn to start against his former club, but there is really very little to choose between him and Dicko anyway. So,
9 Kahn
10 Myler
11 North
12 Burrell
13 Pisi
14 Elliott
15 Collins
Much of the game I suspect will be a forwards dominated arm wrestle, and it will come down to whichever side takes their chances best in a close fought tight encounter, and as my statistical analysis on the Saints shows that as they have never drawn in the H Cup before, then the law of averages says that they must do soon. Consequently my prediction is going to be honours even with the sides tied together at 23 -23, but then as a linguist, what the heck do I know! I should really leave any such analysis to the number crunching, opta loving, smartphone wielding Googlemaniacs out there as for this correspondent at least, too many numbers give me a headache! Either way, Stats means research, and that means time, of which I often have precious little. None the less, I am looking forward to an intriguing game of rugby on Sunday, where as we all know, the only Statistics that truly count are the ones on the Scoreboard after 80 minutes is up.
(Please note: This preview comes in at just over 1000 words, which is about 13.2346% down on my seasons average, and 31% down on my career stats. Year on year shows a moderate growth of 2.19%, where as my Heineken Cup previews have grown by 7.12% since 2010. Forecasts show that there will be a substantial rise in word count by March, peaking in May and dropping off throughout the summer. This preview also contains the most amount of z’s ever…why, because I am falling asleep researching all these stats zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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David L
What if there were no hypothetical questions?
- Live wrong and preposterously
Since both teams realistically need the 5 points to qualify do you not think it might become an open running game second half, with nothing left to lose but a shot at the Amlin? Not suggesting outright collusion in gifting each other tries, that would be thoroughly Machiavellian and as you know he only plays for sides with an Italian in the pool. Now where did I plant those seedings?...
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Let's hope that the same is true come 3pm on Sunday.
Much appreciated, sir!
we should be wary of just being Kings of northamptonshire. again.